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Crude oil: In recent weeks large speculators have been buying oil contracts at an extremely aggressive pace, bringing the net-long position to a new record last week of 596k contracts from 417k in the middle of last month. A modest reduction was seen in the most recent report, with the net-long declining by over 19k to 577k contracts. The sheer size of the position is reason for concern for oil bulls, and the sharp run-up in a relatively ...
AUD/NZD The third quarter of the year saw some interesting shifts in the dynamics between Australia and New Zealand. While the RBA largely tried to stay behind the headlines this year, New Zealand has seen some considerable change over the past couple of months. Jacinda Ardern was elected as Prime Minster of the nation in early-August, and matters haven’t really been the same for the New Zealand Dollar since. Ms. Ardern has already ...
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 29.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.35 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 12.7% lower than yesterday and 23.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.2% lower than yesterday and 15.8% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to ...
A lot of noise was made when EUR/USD broke the ‘neckline’ of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ top, and we were indeed onboard with what was presented to us as a valid confirmation of the three-month pattern. However, last week’s surge pushed the euro well above the ‘neckline’ and the trend-line running down off the September high. The combination of technical breaches significantly decreases the likelihood of the ‘H&S’ pattern still holding any real weight. One could say the formation isn’t fully wrecked ...
The Bank of Japan is committed to “powerful monetary easing” in the oft-spoken words of its Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, until annualized consumer price inflation tops 2%. Well, it’s now at 0.7% and holding so that easing could yet be with us for years. Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve has raised its own interest rates from their post-crisis depths. It’s still expected to do so once again in December and to continue the process in 2018 if the economics permit, albeit gradually. ...
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