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The index remains at first glance very much where it was; a shade below this year’s overall highs but certainly holding on at a relatively elevated level. However, appearances can be deceptive. For there have been some changes to the picture and they’re quite encouraging ones for any bulls out there even if they’re hard to spot. For one thing the trading range has narrowed somewhat, in that its base is now clearly a little higher. Last week we were looking at 21,853, now it’s more like 21,173. At ...
Crude oil: In recent weeks large speculators have been buying oil contracts at an extremely aggressive pace, bringing the net-long position to a new record last week of 596k contracts from 417k in the middle of last month. A modest reduction was seen in the most recent report, with the net-long declining by over 19k to 577k contracts. The sheer size of the position is reason for concern for oil bulls, and the sharp run-up in a relatively ...
AUD/NZD The third quarter of the year saw some interesting shifts in the dynamics between Australia and New Zealand. While the RBA largely tried to stay behind the headlines this year, New Zealand has seen some considerable change over the past couple of months. Jacinda Ardern was elected as Prime Minster of the nation in early-August, and matters haven’t really been the same for the New Zealand Dollar since. Ms. Ardern has already ...
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 29.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.35 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 12.7% lower than yesterday and 23.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.2% lower than yesterday and 15.8% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to ...
A lot of noise was made when EUR/USD broke the ‘neckline’ of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ top, and we were indeed onboard with what was presented to us as a valid confirmation of the three-month pattern. However, last week’s surge pushed the euro well above the ‘neckline’ and the trend-line running down off the September high. The combination of technical breaches significantly decreases the likelihood of the ‘H&S’ pattern still holding any real weight. One could say the formation isn’t fully wrecked ...
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