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Those three votes for a rate hike were the most since 2011 at the MPC, and this triggered fresh fears of the BoE’s massive stimulus program wreaking dire consequences on the British economy. After the ‘sharp repricing’ in the value of GBP around Brexit and then the ensuing dovish campaign from the BoE, higher levels of inflation seemed simply mathematical as importers moved prices-higher to adjust for the -20% move-lower in GBP/USD. As ...
The trend is undeniably weak since hitting a record high in June, the weakest of major global indices at this time. The euro continuing to press on to two-and-half year highs is certainly not helping the cause for investors. The correlation between the DAX and euro is a strongly negative 87% over the past three months. For traders, the trend higher in the euro, lower in the DAX has provided opportunity in a low-volatile global market environment. It’ll be interesting to see if the strong relationship ...
EUR/USD captured headlines today as it printed a fresh 2.5 year high on the heels of Yellen cautiously looking at inflation. We have been bullish EUR/USD since May 22 targeting a retest of the 1.16 highs. Now that we have arrived, what’s next? Is this new 30 month high a fresh breakout or a fake out to draw the bulls in? The model we are following shows the shorter term trend may be nearing the end of this upward trend. Multiple models are pointing to a sell off towards 1.1250-1.1400. From there, ...
On Wednesday, after the EIA released the data that Crude Inventories declined by 4.73m barrels and that Saudi was delivering less crude, holding true to their comittment may act as a force for higher prices. Of course, as we continue to see in Friday’s Baker Hughes data, UUS production continues to push higher and acts as a road block for a significant price recovery. However, as we see increased gasoline demand (+2.1% YoY), a weaker USD and an overall supportive report from the EIA, it’s worth ...
USD/JPY had just forced an upside trendline break and the previous significant high – May 10’s 114.37 – was within striking distance. The Dollar got there alright, breaking in to the 114.40s on July 11, but victory was partial. It only managed to top that summit intraday, still hasn’t managed a higher daily close and has now retreated below. That channel neatly captures all the trading action from June 14’s low to the present day, but it may also offer something of a false positive. ...
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