US Dollar May Fall Further as Trump Inauguration Nears The US Dollar may continue to weaken as disillusioned traders continue to scale back exposure to the so-called “Trump trade” ahead of the nearing Presidential inauguration. Rising U.S. CPI, Hawkish Fed Rhetoric to Tame USD/JPY Pullback The failed run at the December high (118.66) keeps the near-term outlook for USD/JPY tilted to the downside, but the key developments ...
In a vote to leave, GBP would come under significant pressure, while risk currencies (CHF and JPY) benefit. Potential policy responses limit the degree of strength. We expect the effects on EUR/USD to be relatively muted.The payout for Bonds is asymmetric. In a vote to remain, yields would rise but not significantly, and mostly in the Euro-area core. Upon “Leave”, the path of least resistance is for yields to drop substantially, especially in the ...
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