View RSS Feed

mql5

U.K. Brexit Referendum: Polls Open

Rate this Entry
by , 06-23-2016 at 06:05 PM (1237 Views)
      
   
Name:  gbpusd-m5-alpari-limited-2.png
Views: 118
Size:  17.2 KB

  • In a vote to leave, GBP would come under significant pressure, while risk currencies (CHF and JPY) benefit. Potential policy responses limit the degree of strength. We expect the effects on EUR/USD to be relatively muted.
  • The payout for Bonds is asymmetric. In a vote to remain, yields would rise but not significantly, and mostly in the Euro-area core. Upon “Leave”, the path of least resistance is for yields to drop substantially, especially in the UK & the US.
  • The bond yield/policy cushion, combined with the healthy distance from the macro shock, implies less downside for the S&P than for the FTSE or Eurostoxx upon "Leave". Upon "Remain", the S&P could plausibly make fresh highs.
  • Euro-area periphery yields and corporate credit spreads have significant room to widen in a decision to leave, although temporarily perhaps before a policy response is triggered. The upside is capped in an event to "stay".
  • Risk sentiment swings may affect emerging market assets, but much less so relative to Euro-area and UK assets, given the cushion from lower US yields.
  • Lastly, we anticipate limited pass-through to Oil prices. The broad decline in US real rates creates more upside than downside in Gold prices.


the source

Submit "U.K. Brexit Referendum: Polls Open" to Google Submit "U.K. Brexit Referendum: Polls Open" to del.icio.us Submit "U.K. Brexit Referendum: Polls Open" to Digg Submit "U.K. Brexit Referendum: Polls Open" to reddit

Comments