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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

This is a discussion on Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Monday morning blues as EY forecast worse UK recession than expected For almost two years, there have been constant looming ...

      
   
  1. #681
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    Monday morning blues as EY forecast worse UK recession than expected


    For almost two years, there have been constant looming thoughts that the United Kingdom's economy may face a long, drawn out recession.

    During 2021, a time when the interest rates were rising at levels not seen in the past five decades across Europe and North America, there were reports casting a dark shadow over the future of the economy in many Western countries, often stating that it the circumstances at the time may lead to the worst recession in hundreds of years.

    Lockdowns which caused low productivity among large companies whilst causing many smaller businesses to go out of business, a global supply chain disruption, and energy price increases which in some cases rocketed by several hundred percent due to geopolitical instability ae some of the reasons which have cast doubt in the minds of many, as costs for individuals and businesses soar whilst double-digit inflation causes earnings to depreciate.

    The much-discussed forthcoming recession has not yet arrived, however. Yes, there is a severe cost of living crisis, and belts across Europe and the United Kingdom are very much tightened until their last buckle-hole, but still there is not an actual recession.

    This has caused many analysts to consider the possibility that when it comes, it will be severe. Now, global consultancy Ernst & Young (EY) has begun to show its grave concern that a major recession which is worse than predicted, is on the horizon.

    Reduced government support, higher taxes and an overall worsening outlook have all led the firm’s analysts to conclude that the next three years could be worse than they anticipated three months ago.

    EY's prediction includes a forecast that the United Kingdom's gross domestic product could drop by 0.7% this year, but may increase again in the following years.

    A year is a long time, however, and given the market volatility which has taken place over the past two years, looking at a very extensive recession which could last a whole year before any improvement is experienced is a big consideration.

    It may be only one report, but EY is a large enough consultancy for the markets to take notice of. This morning the British Pound declined against the Euro and by 8.00am in the London trading session, it was trading in the low 1.14 range, a slight downturn after it rose to almost 1.15 late last week.

    By contrast, the Pound remains stable against the US Dollar, therefore showing robustness despite the gloomy outlook.

    It is worth noting that the FTSE 100 index is booming and has been doing so for a few weeks now, giving rise to the notion that despite the gloomy economic outlook, British blue chip stocks are extremely popular and the traditional companies making up the FTSE 100 index are performing strongly overall, compared to the tech stock carnage that has taken place on the NASDAQ exchange in the United States over the past few weeks.

    It appears that whilst the US economy is doing overall better than the British economy, the big money is still sitting in the British low-tech and old school stocks whilst investors turn their back on volatile and depreciating US tech stocks.

    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

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    Big Tech woes lead to layoffs, resulting in stock surge


    Over recent months, Silicon Valley has been struggling to keep its position as an endlessly burgeoning region of massive profits and possibilities.

    Technology stocks listed on NASDAQ have been decreasing in value, making the chart pattern for the NASDAQ Composite Index quite sobering reading.

    Indeed, so severely have the tables turned on Silicon Valley's 'big tech' giants that European stock markets, with their legacy companies which have been in establishment for in some cases hundreds of years, have been outperforming the giants of the electronic revolution for many months.

    Something had to give, and yesterday some of the most popularly traded companies in North America's big tech sector began to announce significant redundancies of staff.

    Following last week's well publicized redundancies at Alphabet, Google's holding company, there have been more wounded tech firms following suit.

    The layoffs at Google actually had a positive effect on stock values, and now other firms in a similar position are announcing their intention to go down a similar path.

    Swedish music streaming service Spotify witnessed its shares rally yesteda as it announced its plan to cut hundreds of jobs to help rein in costs.

    Shares of Alphabet rocketed at the end of last week, jumping 5% and adding more than $50 billion in market value, following the tech giant’s decision to lay off 12,000 workers on Friday, demonstrating that it had overspent and grown its business to rapidly since the 'e-commerce revolution' which took place in 2020 when many Western governments locked their populations down.

    This appears to be a proven strategy, as those with a keen eye who have been monitoring the performance of Meta (previously known as Facebook) will have noticed that its shares have skyrocketed about 50% since the firm announced in November it would cut more than 11,000 jobs.

    Silicon Valley was notoriously bloated, and many highly paid staff were allegedly sitting in vacation homes and refusing to come to the office during 2021. The tables are now turning, and the need to keep shareholders happy appears to be paramount at last.

    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

  3. #683
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    BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 24th JAN 2023


    BTCUSD: Inverted Hammer Pattern Above $20671

    Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum from last week and after touching a low of $20671on 19th Jan we can see a bull run which managed to push the prices of BTCUSD above the $23000 handle today in the early Asian trading session.

    After touching a high of $23159 we can see that the prices are declining due to profit taking by the medium term investors.

    The price of bitcoin is ranging near a new record high of 1 month.

    We can clearly see an inverted hammer pattern above the $20671 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

    Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 23159 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 22858 in the European trading session today.

    Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

    The relative strength index is at 63.63 indicating a strong demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

    Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly exponential moving average and above its 200 hourly exponential moving average.

    Most of the major technical indicators are giving a strong buy signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 23000 and 24500.

    The average true range is indicating less market volatility with a strongly bullish momentum.

    • Bitcoin: bullish continuation seen above $20671
    • The STOCHRSI range is indicating oversold levels
    • The price is now trading below its pivot level of $23066
    • All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY market signal


    Bitcoin: Bullish Continuation Seen Above $20671


    We can now see that the price of Bitcoin is moving in a correction phase after which the market consolidation will start above the $22500 handle.

    The Aroon indicator is giving a bullish trend in the 1-hour time frame.

    The momentum indicator is back over zero in the 30-minute time frame.

    We can see the formation of the bullish harami cross pattern in the 15-minute time frame indicating bullish trends.

    We have also detected a bullish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA100 in the 15-minute time frame.

    The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

    Bitcoin’s support zones are located at $21017 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average, and at $21976 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 80%.

    The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 23200 and Fibonacci resistance level of 23288 after which the path towards 24000 will get cleared.

    In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has increased by 0.47% by 107$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 27.839 billion. We can see an increase of 15.92% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which is due to the heavy buying pressure seen in the global markets.

    The Week Ahead

    The price of bitcoin has already entered into a super bullish zone above the $22000 and further upsides are located at $24000 and $25000 in the medium-term.

    Bitcoin’s resistance zone is located at $23309 which is a 13-week high and at $24778 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls.

    There is an ascending channel forming with the current support located at $19977 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 50%.

    The weekly outlook is projected at $24500 with a consolidation zone of $24000.

    Technical Indicators:

    The moving averages convergence divergence, MACD (12, 26): is at 359.30 indicating a BUY

    The commodity channel index, CCI (14): is at 56.65 indicating a BUY

    The relative strength index, RSI (14): is at 63.63 indicating a BUY

    Bull/bear power (13): is at 594.12 indicating a BUY

    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

  4. #684
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    EUR/USD Resumes Increase While USD/CHF Could Breakdown


    EUR/USD gained pace above the 1.0850 resistance zone. USD/CHF is declining and remains at a risk of more losses below the 0.9220 support.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

    • The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.0850 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0845 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • USD/CHF started a fresh decline below the 0.9260 and 0.9250 support levels.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9220 on the hourly chart.


    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    In the past few days, the Euro started a steady increase from the 1.0780 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained pace above the 1.0820 level to move into a bullish zone.

    The pair even climbed above the 1.0850 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 1.0927 on FXOpen and recently started a downside correction. There was a move below the 1.0880 level.

    EUR/USD Hourly Chart


    The pair traded as low as 1.0835 and is currently rising. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0927 swing high to 1.0835 low.

    An immediate resistance is near the 1.0900 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0927 swing high to 1.0835 low. The next major resistance is near the 1.0920 level.

    A clear move above the 1.0920 resistance zone could set the pace for a larger increase towards 1.0965. The next major resistance is near the 1.1000 zone. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0880 level.

    The next major support is near the 1.0850 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0845 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. A downside break below the 1.0850 support could start another decline.

    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

  5. #685
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    ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 26th JAN, 2023


    ETHUSD: Three Inside Up Pattern Above $1518

    Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1518 on 25th Jan, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $1600 handle today in the European trading session.

    We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

    We can clearly see a three inside up pattern above the $1518 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

    ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1607 and moving into a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1610 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1613 after which the path towards 1700 will get cleared.

    The relative strength index is at 56.75 indicating a STRONG demand for Ether and the continuation of the bullish phase in the markets.

    The price of Ethereum is ranging near the horizontal support in the 1-hour time frame indicating bullish trends.

    Both the STOCH and CCI are indicating a neutral market, which means that the prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase.

    Most of the technical indicators are giving a BUY market signal.

    Most of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1650 to $1700 in the short-term range.

    ETH is now trading above both the 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

    • Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1518 mark
    • The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
    • ETH continues to remain above the $1600 level
    • The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility


    Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1518


    ETHUSD is now moving into a mildly bullish channel with the price trading above the $1600 handle in the European trading session today.

    ETH touched an intraday high of 1625 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 1600 in the European trading session today.

    We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with adaptive moving average AMA20 in the 30-minute time frame.

    The Aroon indicator is giving a bullish trend in the 4-hour time frame.

    We have also detected the formation of moving average bullish crossovers: MA50 & MA100 in the daily time frame.

    Ethereum’s price is rising sharply against the US dollar and nitcoin and is now eyeing to cross the $1700 level soon.

    The daily RSI is printing at 65.97 indicating a STRONG demand for Ether in the medium-term range.

    The key support levels to watch are $1489 which is a 38.2% Retracement from a 4-week high, and $1536 which is a 3-10-16 day MACD moving average stalls.

    ETH has increased by 3.98% with a price change of 61.50$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 10.232 billion USD.

    We can see an increase of 10.64% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

    The Week Ahead

    ETH price continues to remain in a bullish zone against the US dollar and bitcoin. ETHUSD is expected to move higher towards the $11650 and $1700 levels this week.

    On the upside we are now looking at the immediate targets of 1677 which is a 13-week high, and $1685 which is a pivot point 2nd level resistance.

    The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

    The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1588 which is a pivot point.

    The weekly outlook is projected at $1700 with a consolidation zone of $1650.

    Technical Indicators:

    The average directional index, ADX (14): is at 45.27 indicating a BUY

    The rate of price change: is at 2.735 indicating a BUY

    Bull/bear power (13): is at 7.52 indicating a BUY

    The Williams percent range : is at -44.41 indicating a BUY

    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

  6. #686
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    Gold Price Could Dip While Crude Oil Price Trades In Range


    Gold price is struggling to stay above the $1,925 support. Crude oil price is facing a strong resistance near the $82 zone.

    Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

    • Gold price started a strong increase and tested $1,950 against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,925 on the hourly chart of gold.
    • Crude oil price started a fresh increase from the $79.50 support zone.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $80.40 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.


    Gold Price Technical Analysis


    Gold price formed a base above the $1,900 level against the US Dollar. The price started a strong increase above the $1,915 and $1,920 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

    The bulls even pumped the price above the $1,940 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even tested the $1,950 zone. A high is formed near $1,949 on FXOpen and the price is now correcting gains.

    Gold Price Hourly Chart

    There was a move below the $1,940 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even dipped below the $1,920 level before the bulls appeared.

    Recently, there was a recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,949 swing high to $1,918 low. However, the bears are active below the $1,935 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

    The price failed to clear the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,949 swing high to $1,918 low. It is now moving lower below $1,930.

    An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,925 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,925 on the hourly chart of gold. The next major support is near the $1,915 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,900 support zone.

    On the upside, the first major resistance is near the $1,930 level. The next key hurdle is near the $1,935 level, above which it could even test $1,950. A clear upside break above the $1,950 resistance could send the price towards $1,965.

    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

  7. #687
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    Watch FXOpen's January 23 - 27 Weekly Market Wrap Video

    In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

    • Monday morning blues as EY forecast worse UK recession than expected
    • Natural gas fell by 50% in 1 month
    • Big Tech woes lead to layoffs, resulting in stock surge
    • TSLA. Report reassures investors


    Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.




    FXOpen YouTube


    Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

  8. #688
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    GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Could Resume Increase


    GBP/USD is consolidating gains pace above the 1.2350 zone. GBP/JPY is also rising and might gain pace if it clears the 161.80 resistance zone.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

    • The British Pound is showing positive signs above 1.2350 against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2400 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • GBP/JPY started a fresh increase above the 160.00 resistance zone.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 160.90 on the hourly chart.


    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    This past week, the British Pound found support near the 1.2280 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base and started a steady increase above the 1.23200 level.

    There was a clear move above the 1.2350 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even cleared the 1.2400 resistance. A high is formed near 1.2418 on FXOpen and the pair corrected lower.

    GBP/USD Hourly Chart


    There was a move below the 1.2380 level, but the bulls were active near the 1.2345. The pair is now rising and trading above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2418 swing high to 1.2345 low.

    An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.2400 level. There is also a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2400 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

    The triangle resistance is near the 76.4% key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2400 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major resistance is near the 1.2420 level, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.2450.

    An upside break above 1.2450 might start a fresh increase towards 1.2550. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.2600 or even 1.2640.

    An immediate support is near the 1.2380. The next major support is near the 1.2350 level. If there is a break below the 1.2350 support, the pair could test the 1.2280 support. Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.2220.

    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

  9. #689
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    Markets focus on Bitcoin as volatility takes it to 5-month high


    The much publicized 'crypto winter' has been a long, drawn out period of relatively low values among major cryptocurrencies, lasting now for several months.

    Along with the depressed values compared to the incredible volatility of 2021 which showed Bitcoin race to over $60,000 and below $20,000 and back again, there has been a stagnant market for long enough for those who were on the edge of their seat a just a year and a half ago to fall asleep during the winter of 2022.

    This weekend, however, has caused some market participants to wake from the months-long slumber and begin to take note as Bitcoin values suddenly climbed to $23,900 by Sunday evening (UK market time).

    That is almost $1000 higher than the value at which Bitcoin began the very same day, its value having been at $23,003 at 00.30 in the first half hour of the morning UK time.

    Over the 24 hours until 12.00pm today UK time, Bitcoin had risen by 2% which is significant considering the millpond-like doldrums it has been in over the past few weeks.

    This sudden rally was short lived, however, and by 13.00 UK time, Bitcoin values had descended to $23,100 which is a similar value to the pre-rally price on Sunday morning.

    Whilst the return to the low $23,000 range may appear a damp squib to those who had become excited by the sudden upward direction which took place yesterday, the movement does at least demonstrate that some market volatility was present after a long period of stagnation, hence why this has been a talking point among many analysts and reporters over the past 24 hours.

    What is of perhaps greater interest is that the high point reached yesterday evening put Bitcoin value at its highest point since August 12, 2022, when it traded at $24,412 and despite tailing off a bit during the course of today, Bitcoin is still at its second highest point in the last six months.

    Therefore, whilst perhaps a small blip in the market value of the world's most popularly traded cryptocurrency may appear short lived, this is the highest value in the past five months, which is definitely something to write about.

    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

  10. #690
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    Brent Crude Oil price takes a bashing overnight


    During the past two years, oil, along with many other raw material commodities which are used to produce energy products, has been very volatile.

    Perhaps given the nature of its supply, which is largely in the hands of the OPEC+ countries whose national economies depend on the export of oil around the world, the 'oil cartel' has a lot of bargaining power over its consumers, hence in times of economic strife or geopolitical instability, oil prices have always been ones to watch.

    First of all there was supply chain and logistical curtailment due to lockdowns across many Western countries, which led to the increase in the price of oil during 2020 and 2021, and then the sanctioning of the settlement accounts of Russian oil companies by European governments which led to any oil bought having to be settled in Rubles in bank accounts in Moscow, leading to rapidly accelerating ruble prices and oil supply constraints for European customers.

    Therefore, oil prices have been high for 2 years, however this morning during the Asian trading session, Brent Crude Oil (WTI) took a dive in value and by 8.45am UK time, it was languishing at $76.92 per barrel, a steep drop over yesterday's values and a very noticeable drop compared to this time last week when the value was $82.27 per barrel on January 23, its highest value this month.

    During the past 30 days, Brent Crude Oil has been very volatile in its values, having begun the month at a low point of $73.08 on January 4, before accelerating past the $80 mark by mid January, then retracting again before heading back to the high of over $82 last week, and now it is back down to the mid-$70s again.

    Despite the overall rollercoaster ride of volatility this month, Brent Crude Oil is down overall by 4.3% during the past 30 days.

    This has been an interesting period for commodities traders, and whilst in many Western markets, gasoline prices are now far lower than they were six months ago, the price of crude oil continues to fluctuate considerably.

    In some cases, vehicle fuel prices at the pumps on the retail market have decreased by over 50p (British) or 50c (Euro) per liter in six months. For example, in July 2022, motorists in the United Kingdom were paying approximately £1.99 per liter, now unleaded fuel is readily available at around £1.50 per liter, and in France, in July 2022 unleaded fuel was retailing at an extremely high 2.20 Euros per liter, whereas during January 2023 it has been selling at anywhere between 1.70 and 1.87 Euros per liter.

    Volatility is the the lifeblood of trading, so says the old adage, and the oil price this month has certainly been on point in this respect.

    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

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