Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Fed Plans To Accelerate Monetary Tightening. Is It a Good Time To Buy US Dollars?



The currency market moves mainly on the interest rate differential between various central banks around the world. The Federal Reserve of the United States is the most influential central bank, as it sets the rates over the world’s reserve currency.

In April, the Fed began a tightening cycle. It hiked the federal funds rate by 25bp in light of rising inflation and strong economic growth. Moreover, it warned that it is ready to hike even more aggressively should the data support it.

Following the rate hike, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed is ready to hike the federal funds rate by 50bp at their next meeting in May. In light of rising rates in the US as the economy grows and inflation runs hot, is it a good time to buy US dollars?


US Dollar Trades With A Mixed Tone

Despite the Fed’s hawkishness, the US dollar trades with a mixed tone. On the one hand, it has gained against its European peers, such as the euro and the British pound, and against the Japanese yen. On the other hand, it trades with a weak tone against the New Zealand and the Australian dollar.

Interestingly enough, the RBA and RBNZ have not raised the rates from their lower boundary. Yet, the two currencies down under are being bid against the dollar.

One explanation might be the inflation rate differential. Inflation in the US is at a four decade high, outpacing the one in Australia and New Zealand.

As such, despite the Fed’s intentions to speed up the rate hikes, the rising inflation rate is eroding the dollar’s strength. In other words, inflation is rising much higher than the Fed is hiking the rates; thus, the US dollar remains weak against its Australian and New Zealand peers.

The conflict in Europe scared investors away from the common currency. While not declining as many have thought, the euro remains weak as investors keep selling any rally.

All in all, the US dollar remains bid against the JPY and European currencies while offered against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Traders will find out more details about the Fed’s plans on Wednesday when the previous meeting’s minutes are scheduled for release.

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 05th APR 2022


BTCUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $44,000

Bitcoin touched a high of $48,164 on March 28th , after which we saw some correction that pushed its price below the $45,000 handle.

We can see fresh buying pressure coming back into the markets, and bitcoin is trading above the $46,000 handle in the European trading session today.

We can see a rising trend channel in the medium term, which is expected to push the prices of BTCUSD towards the $50,000 handle.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $44,000 handle, which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

The Stoch and the Williams percent range are indicating an overbought level, which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the price is expected.

The relative strength index is at 55, indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin at the current market levels.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple Ma, and its 200 hourly exponential MA.

All of the major technical indicators are giving a BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 48,000 and 50,000.

The average true range is indicating a LESSER market volatility with a strong bullish momentum.

• A bullish reversal is seen in bitcoin above $44,000
• The StochRSI is indicating an OVERSOLD level
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $46,663
• All of the moving averages are giving a BUY market signal

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $44,000


Bitcoin continues to move in a mildly bullish momentum with an upwards projection towards the level of 48,000 in the European trading session today.

In the immediate short term, we are expecting a continuation of this bullish trend, with the prices of bitcoin ranging between $48,000 and $49,000 as it has entered into a consolidation phase now.

The drop in the level of BTCUSD that we saw last week happened due to the profit-taking by short-term investors.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bullish; the medium-term outlook is bullish; and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 46,735, and Fibonacci resistance level of 46,802, after which the path towards 48,000 will get cleared.

We can see that the daily RSI is also printing at 62 which indicates that in the medium-term, the prices are expected to appreciate further.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has gone UP by 1.51% with a price change of $692, and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 30.612 billion. We can see an increase of 8.03% in the trading volume as compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of bitcoin is now moving into a consolidation phase below $48,000. We can see some range-bound movements in the levels between $46,000 to $48,000.

The hourly RSI has also confirmed the rising trend channel which indicates that in the medium-term, prices are expected to move closer to the level of $50,000.

The on-chain metrics are also suggesting that after the present consolidation phase is over, we are aiming towards crossing the $50,000 handle.

In the immediate short term, bitcoin’s bullish momentum is expected to continue pushing above the $49,000 handle this week.

The prices of BTCUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $47,500 this week.

Weekly outlook is projected at $50,000 with a consolidation zone of $48,500.

Technical Indicators:

The rate of price change: at 10.13 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: at 51.55 indicating a BUY

Bull/Bear power(13-day): at 2289 indicating a BUY

The moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at 1490 indicating a BUY

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EUR/USD Faces Hurdle, USD/CHF Could Gain Pace


EUR/USD declined heavily below the 1.1000 and 1.0980 levels. USD/CHF could gain pace if there is a move above the 0.9320 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a major decline from the 1.1180 resistance zone against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.0925 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF formed a base above the 0.9220 support zone and started a decent increase.
• There is a key rising channel forming with support near 0.9270 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro struggled to gain pace above the 1.1180 resistance level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a fresh decline below the 1.1150 and 1.1100 support levels.

There was a clear move below the 1.1000 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even declined below the 1.0940 support level. It traded as low as 1.0890 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating losses.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart


On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.0915 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0988 swing high to 1.0890 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0920 zone. There is also a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.0925 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. A clear upside break above the 1.0925 zone could open the doors for a steady move.

The next major resistance sits near the 1.0940 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0988 swing high to 1.0890 low. A close above 1.0940 and 1.0950 could send EUR/USD further higher.

On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0890 level. The next major support is near the 1.0880 level. A downside break below the 1.0880 support could start another decline.

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 07th APR, 2022


ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $3,100

Ethereum failed to continue its bullish momentum last week, and after touching a high of 3578 on April 4th, has started to decline.

Ethereum touched an intraday low of $3,143 in the Asian trading session, and an intraday high of $3,233 in the European trading session today.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $3,100 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of $3,223 and moving in a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of $3,235 and Fibonacci resistance level of $3,246, after which the path towards $3,400 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 44 indicating a WEAK demand for Ethereum and the move towards consolidation.

Both the StochRSI and the Williams percent range are indicating an overbought level which means that the price is due to decline further.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Some of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal, and we are now looking at the levels of $3,400 to $3,550 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading below both the 100 hourly and 200 hourly simple moving averages.

• A bullish reversal seen in Ether above the $3,100 mark
• The short-term range appears to be mildly BULLISH
• The daily RSI is near 50 at 53, indicating a NEUTRAL market
• The average true range is indicating LESSER market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $3,100


ETHUSD is now moving into a mildly bullish channel with the price trading above the $3,200 handle in the European trading session today.

We saw last week that the bullish move was invalidated above the $3,500 handle, and this week, we are looking at the level of $3,400. If ETH manages to cross and remain above these levels, then we can see $3,500 and $3,600 next week.

Ethereum is now slowly recovering against the US dollar, and we can see the formation of an ascending contraction triangle which means that the prices are due to break out upwards.

ETHUSD is now facing its immediate resistance levels of $3,337 and $3,417, after which we will see a linear progression towards $3,600.

The key support levels to watch are $3,175 and $3,153, and the prices of ETHUSD need to remain above these levels for the bullish trend to continue.

ETH has lost -4.00% with a price change of -133.99$ in the past 24hrs, and has a trading volume of 22.874 billion USD.

We can see a 8.29% decrease in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

Last week, we saw Ethereum decline from its highs of $3,579 to the low of $3,143, but now we can see that the prices have entered into a consolidation phase above $3,200.

If the price of ETHUSD remains above $3,200, we may see a linear progression towards the level of $3,400 and $3,500 this week.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly BULLISH; the medium-term outlook has turned neutral; and the long-term outlook for Ether is NEUTRAL in present market conditions.

This week, Ether is expected to move in a range between $3,200 and $3,400, and next week, Ether is expected to enter into a consolidation phase above the level of $3,400.

On-Chain Metrics


We can see that the number of active Ethereum addresses are increasing, and it also points to an increase in the price of ETH next week.

The simple moving average (14-day) of the active receiving addresses also suggests that more buyers are now coming back into the markets, which has led to an increase in the number of Ethereum transactions.

Technical Indicators:

The Stoch (9,6): at 74.29 indicating a BUY

The average directional Change (14-day): at 54.71 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index (14-day): at 74.31 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: at 62.37 indicating a BUY

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Turn Red, Risk of More Losses


AUD/USD gained bearish momentum below the 0.7550 support zone. NZD/USD started a major decline after it faced sellers near 0.7030.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline after it struggled near 0.7660 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.7530 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD also started a major decline after it failed to stay above 0.7000.
• There was a move below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6950 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar faced a strong selling interest near the 0.7660 level against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started a major decline below the 0.7600 level.

There was a clear move below the 0.7600 and 0.7580 support levels. The pair even declined below the 0.7550 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.7530 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart


The pair traded as low as 0.7466 on FXOpen and is currently consolidating losses. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.7500 level.

The next major resistance is near the 0.7515 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7660 swing high to 0.7466 low. The first major resistance is now forming near the 0.7550 level.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7660 swing high to 0.7466 low is also near the 0.7565 level. A close above the 0.7565 level could start a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.7660.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.7460 level. The next support could be the 0.7420 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.7420 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7350 level. Any more downsides might send the pair toward the 0.7300 level.

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GBP/USD Dives While GBP/JPY Aims More Upsides


GBP/USD started another decline from well above the 1.3120 level. GBP/JPY is rising and might gain pace above the 162.75 resistance zone

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound started a fresh decline after it failed near 1.3150 against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3030 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY started a fresh increase after it cleared the 160.00 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 161.75 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound attempted a recovery wave above the 1.3120 level against the US Dollar. However, the GBP/USD pair failed to gain strength for a move above the 1.3150 resistance.

As a result, the pair reacted to the downside and traded below the 1.3100 level. There was a clear move below the 1.3050 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It even spiked below 1.3000 and traded as low as 1.2982 on FXOpen.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart


It is currently attempting an upside correction above 1.3000. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3106 swing high to 1.2982 low.

However, the pair is facing a major resistance near the 1.3040 and 1.3050 levels. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3030 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3106 swing high to 1.2982 low is also above the trend line.

The next major hurdle is near 1.3080, above which the pair could rise towards 1.3150 in the near term. If not, the pair might continue to decline below 1.3000.

The next major support is near the 1.2950 level. If there is a break below the 1.2950 support, the pair could test the 1.2880 support.

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Euro Finds Buyers Ahead of the ECB Meeting


A new trading week has just started, and the name of the game in the FX market is the JPY weakness. Since the Bank of Japan said in March that it would buy unlimited amounts of JGBs, the JPY pairs have gone through the roof.

Perhaps the most impressive rally is the one observed in the EUR/JPY cross. After initially dropping to 124 when the Russia-Ukraine war started, the cross reversed course dramatically and now trades close to 137, having gone up by almost 1,300 pips higher in about a month.

But the EUR/JPY cross is not the only EUR pair that has found support at lower levels. Even the EUR/USD has, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve of the US is already raising rates, while the ECB does not plan to do so anytime soon.



EUR/USD Still Bearish While Below the Pivotal Level

EUR/USD has been selling aggressively this year. First, there was the increased divergence between the Federal Reserve and the ECB. As traders saw the Fed become more vocal regarding the new tightening cycle, the ECB is only moderately hawkish.

Secondly, the war in Ukraine triggered a selloff as investors preferred not to take any risk and avoid the common currency. As such, the EUR/USD dropped below 1.12, a pivotal level for the pair.

In other words, despite a possible double bottom pattern, the EUR/USD remains bearish while below 1.12. A close above 1.12, however, would turn the bias bullish as investors would try for the measured move seen at 1.16.

ECB Meeting Looms Large

On Thursday, the ECB presents its monetary policy for the period ahead. The central bank faces a difficult task.

On the one hand, inflation runs way above the ECB’s tolerance level. As such, the central bank has issued some hawkish statements, and the market now anticipates that the deposit rate will be lifted from the current level this year.

On the other hand, the war in Ukraine calls for caution in tightening the monetary policy. Inflation is triggered by the supply side, and hiking rates will not help. Instead, hiking rates might trigger an economic recession.

All in all, this week, we will find out more about the ECB’s plans. One thing is sure – the common currency is being bought on every move lower so far.



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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 12th APR 2022


BTCUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $39,000

Bitcoin was unable to continue its last week’s bullish momentum and started to decline after touching a high of $47,184 on April 5th.

Bitcoin broke the $40,000 support and touched a low of $36,210 in today’s Asian trading session.

The selloff continues across the crypto markets, and the global investor sentiments are low due to the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war and its emerging impacts on the prices of energy and stock markets.

After falling below the $40,000 handle, bitcoin found support and has entered a mildly bullish channel in today’s European trading session.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $39,000 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

The Stoch and the Williams percent range are indicating an overbought level which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 43 indicating a WEAK demand for bitcoin at the current market levels.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and its 200 hourly exponential moving average.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of $41,000 and $43,000.

The average true range is indicating LESSER market volatility with a mild bullish momentum.

• Bullish reversal seen in bitcoin above $39,000
• The StochRSI is indicating an OVERSOLD level
• The price is now trading just above its pivot level of $40,236
• Some of the moving averages are giving a BUY market signal

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $39,000


Bitcoin continues to move in a mildly bullish momentum with an upwards projection towards the level of $41,000 in the European trading session today.

In the immediate term, we are expecting a continuation of this bullish trend with the price of bitcoin ranging between the levels of $42,000 and $44,000 as it has entered into a consolidation phase now.

The drop in the level of BTCUSD that we saw last week was due to the profit-taking by the short-term investors.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bullish; the medium-term outlook is neutral; and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of $40,336 and Fibonacci resistance level of $40,454, after which the path towards $41,000 will get cleared.

We can see that the daily RSI is below 50 printing at 38 which indicates that in the medium-term prices are expected to decline further.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has gone down by 3.17% with a price change of -$1319, and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 36.665 billion. We can see an Increase of 60.52% in the trading volume as compared to yesterday, which is due to the selling by the long-term Investors.

The Week Ahead

The price of bitcoin is now moving in a consolidation phase above the level of $40,000. We can see some range-bounded movements between $41,000 and $43,000.

If the prices of bitcoin continue to remain above the important psychological support level of $40,000, next week, we may see some correction in the midrange upwards towards the $42,000 handle.

In the immediate short term, bitcoin’s mildly bullish momentum is expected to continue pushing to above the $41,000 handle this week.

The price of BTCUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $40,000 this week.

The weekly outlook is projected at $42,000 with a consolidation zone of $41,500.

BTC Market Cap


Due to the weak global investor sentiments coupled with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the rising inflation, the BTC market cap has fallen down below $800 billion.

The present total market capitalization of bitcoin stands at $764 billion.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional change (14-day): at 44.90 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: at 62.26 indicating a BUY

Bull/Bear power (13-day): at 227.32 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: at 0.88 indicating a BUY



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EUR/USD Remains At Risk While EUR/JPY Eye More Gains


EUR/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.0940 resistance. EUR/JPY could gain pace if it clears the 136.30 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro failed to clear the 1.0940 resistance and started a fresh decline.
• It broke a key contracting triangle with support near 1.0880 on the hourly chart.
• EUR/JPY gained bullish momentum after it broke the 135.50 resistance zone.
• Recently, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 136.50 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro made a couple of attempts to clear the 1.0940 resistance zone against the US Dollar. However, the EUR/JPY pair failed to gain strength above 1.0940 and started a fresh decline.

The pair declined below the 1.0900 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below a key contracting triangle with support near 1.0880 on the hourly chart. The pair even moved below the 1.0840 support level.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart


A low is formed near 1.0811 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating losses. It corrected above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0903 high to 1.0811 low.

On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.0850 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0903 high to 1.0811 low. The next major resistance is near the 1.0865 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

A clear break above the 1.0865 resistance could push EUR/USD towards 1.0900. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could rise revisit the 1.0940 resistance zone in the near term.

On the downside, the pair might find support near the 1.0820 level. If there is a downside break below the 1.0820 support, the pair might accelerate lower. The next major support sits near the 1.0765 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline.



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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 14th APR, 2022


ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $2,900

Ethereum failed to continue its bullish momentum last week, and started to decline after touching a high of 3,299 on April 8th.

It touched an intraday low of 3,093 in the Asian trading session, and an intraday high of 3,142 in today’s European trading session.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $2,900 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of 3,111 and moving in a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 3,120 and Fibonacci resistance level of 3,128, after which the path towards 3,200 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 59 indicating a STRONG demand for Ethereum and the continuation of the bullish trend.

Both the average directional change and commodity channel index are indicating a neutral level which means that the prices are due to enter into a consolidation phase.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY signal, and we are now looking at the levels of $3,300 to $3,350 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading below both the 100 hourly and exponential moving averages.

• Bullish reversal seen in Ether above the $2,900 mark
• The short-term range appears to be mildly BULLISH
• The daily RSI is below 50 at 48 indicating a NEUTRAL market
• The average true range is indicating LESSER market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $2,900


ETHUSD is now moving in a mildly bullish channel with the price trading above the $3,100 handle in the European trading session today.

Ethereum is now slowly preparing for its next move against the US dollar. We can see the formation of a contraction triangle pattern, which shows price building energy, and we can see the A-C and B-D trendlines.

ETHUSD is now facing its immediate resistance levels of $3,128 and $3,300, after which we will see a linear progression towards the level of $3,400.

The key support levels to watch are $2,906 and $3,034, and the prices of ETHUSD need to remain above these levels for the bullish trend to continue.

ETH has gained 2.05% with a price change of $62.64 in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 15.476 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 19.10% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

Last week, we saw Ethereum decline from its highs of 3,299 to the lows of 2,951, but now we can see that the prices have entered a consolidation phase above the level of 3,000.

If the price of ETHUSD remains above $3,000, we may see a linear progression towards the levels of $3,200 and $3,350 this week.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly BULLISH; the medium-term outlook has turned neutral; and the long-term outlook for Ether is NEUTRAL in present market conditions.

This week, Ether is expected to move in a range between $3,100 and $3,300, and next week, it is expected to enter a consolidation phase above $3,300.

Technical Indicators:

The Williams percent range: at -44.92 indicating a BUY

The moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at 15.85 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: at 0.332 indicating a BUY

Bull/Bear power (13-day): at 16.23 indicating a BUY



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