Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Eye Additional Gains



Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,820 resistance. Crude oil price is also rising and it is showing positive signs above $70.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a fresh upward move after forming a base above $1,780 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,805 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price also gained pace and it broke the key $70.00 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $72.30 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,792 zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh upward move and it surpassed the $1,800 resistance zone.

The price even settled above the $1,820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,805 on the hourly chart of gold.



Finally, the price spiked above the $1,830 resistance and it traded as high as $1,832 on FXOpen. The price is now consolidating gains near $1,828. An initial support on the downside is near the $1,823 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,793 low to $1,832 high.

The first major support is near the $1,818 level. The main support is now forming near the $1,810 level and the 50 hourly SMA. The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,793 low to $1,832 high is also near $1,812.

If there is a downside break, the price could test the $1,790 support. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,832 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,840 level. If the price breaks the $1,840 level, it could accelerate higher. In the stated case, the price could rise towards the $1,850 zone.

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GBP/USD Turns Green, USD/CAD Faces Hurdles



GBP/USD started a fresh increase and it broke the 1.3880 resistance. USD/CAD is recovering, but it is facing hurdles near 1.2520.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

1. The British Pound started a steady increase above the 1.3850 and 1.3880 resistance levels.
2. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3875 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
3. USD/CAD started a steady decline below the 1.2550 and 1.2520 support levels.
4. There was a break above a short-term declining channel with resistance near 1.2455 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis



After forming a base above the 1.3620 level, the British Pound started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3750 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

The bulls gained pace above the 1.3850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 1.3950 resistance level. A high was formed near 1.3981 on FXOpen and it is currently correcting lower.

There was a break below the 1.3950 support level. The pair traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent move from the 1.3843 swing low to 1.3981 high.

On the downside, the first key support is near the 1.3875 area. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3875 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent move from the 1.3843 swing low to 1.3981 high.

If there is a break below 1.3875 and 1.3860, the pair could decline towards the 1.3825 support zone. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.3720 support.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3940 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.3980 level. The main resistance is now near the 1.4000 zone, above which the pair is likely to accelerate higher towards the 1.4050 and 1.4100 levels.

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The US Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations



The new trading month started with the market participants focusing on Friday’s NFP report. Because the Federal Reserve of the United States has a dual mandate, one that focuses on both price stability and job creation, the way the labor market performs is viewed as decisive for the future path of monetary policy.

While inflation has reached the Fed’s target, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the labor market. Fed’s definition of full employment leaves room for more strength before the rates could be lifted.

In the middle of last week, the Fed signaled that it is in no rush to lift the rates. Most likely, it remains intentionally behind the curve, wanting to see more strength in the labor market before acting.

But inflation and economic growth may trigger action from the Fed sooner than the market expects. We’ve seen the Gross Domestic Product released last week coming out much stronger than the expectations.



US GDP Grows Much Faster Than Forecasters Expected

The chart above shows a projection for the US GDP made by various institutions in the last quarter of 2020. All of them, including the FOMC, IMF, and OECD, have underestimated the growth of the US economy.

As it turned out, the actual growth path out of the economic recession is much steeper, with positive spillover effects for the main US trade partners. Because the United States is the largest economy in the world, a stronger economic recovery there is enough to add one percentage point or more to global growth.

Before the passage of the America Rescue plan, most forecasters expected that the economy would grow by 3/4%-4.2% in the four quarters of 2021. But the data released last week shows that the economy grows at an annualized rate of 6.4%, much higher than expected.

The solid growth should support the equity markets and keep the US dollar offered. Because most central banks in the developed world have adopted similar monetary policies, which are still loose, the market is dominated by risk-on/risk-off gyrations. Until we see central banks lifting rates, the chances are that the markets will remain correlated.

FXOpen Blog

EUR/USD Eyes More Upsides, USD/CHF Turns Red



EUR/USD started a decent increase and it broke the 1.1850 resistance zone. USD/CHF is declining and it could extend losses below 0.9020.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh increase from well below 1.1800 against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1840 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF failed to stay above the 0.9120 support and extended its decline.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9070 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


The Euro formed a support base above 1.1780 and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1820 resistance zone to move into a positive zone.

The pair even surpassed the 1.1850 resistance zone and it settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. Finally, there was a spike above the 1.1900 level. A high was formed near 1.1908 on FXOpen before the pair started a downside correction.

There was a break below the 1.1900 and 1.1880 levels. The pair declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1772 swing low to 1.1908 high.

It is now consolidating above the 1.1850 support zone. The next major support is near the 1.1840 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1772 swing low to 1.1908 high. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1840 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

A downside break below the 1.1840 support could start another decline. The next major support could be near the 1.1780 level.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1875 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The main resistance is near 1.1900. If there is an upside break above the 1.1900 resistance zone, the price could rise steadily towards the 1.1950 resistance zone.

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Google Green-lights Crypto Ads



On August 3, Google rolled out its new policy, allowing advertisers to officially offer their cryptocurrency and wallet exchange services online.

The latest set of rules is quite tough. To weed out shadow advertising and crypto fraud, Google requires advertisers to register with the Financial Crime Enforcement Network (FinCEN). ICOs, banned from advertising back in 2018, are still a no-go.

Thanks to this step, the corporation is expected to boost its revenue in the developing sector of digital currencies.

Meanwhile, Ethereum masterminds have begun a countdown to the Thursday launch of the London update on their website. The update will affect how the network handles transaction fees.

Ahead of the update, ETHUSD is showing more positive dynamics compared to BTCUSD.



On July 31, the BTCUSD market had very small trading volumes (see fig. 1) around the 42k level, and the next day, the price showed bearish dynamics with growing volumes. This indicates a weak demand for the coin at a price of 42k and the dominance of supply. The current decline can be stopped by the level of 36k (or something close to it), where, on July 26, the bitcoin price was growing aggressively under pressure from buyers.

FXOpen Blog

Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Show Bearish Signs



Gold price started a fresh decline from well above $1,825. Crude oil price is also declining and it broke the main $70.00 support zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price failed to clear the $1,830 level and it started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $1,815 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price also started a fresh decline from well above the $72.00 zone.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $69.25 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price failed once again to clear the $1,830 resistance against the US Dollar. The price traded as high as $1,831 on FXOpen before it started a fresh decline.

There was a break below the $1,820 and $1,810 support levels. The price even broke the $1,805 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $1,815 on the hourly chart of gold.



The price spiked below $1,800 before the bulls appeared. The price is now consolidating losses, with an immediate resistance near the $1,810 level.

The first key resistance is near the $1,810 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,831 high to $1,797 low. The main resistance is near the $1,815 level.

A close above $1,815 could set the pace for a larger increase. An initial support on the downside is near the $1,795 level. The first major support is near the $1,785 level. If there is a downside break, the price could test the $1,750 support in the near term.

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GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Target Additional Losses



GBP/USD started a steady decline from the 1.4000 resistance zone. EUR/GBP also declined and it broke the key 0.8500 support zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound failed to surpass the 1.4000 resistance zone and started a fresh decline.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3915 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh decline from well above the 0.8550 pivot level.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8500 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis



The British Pound made many attempts to clear the 1.3400 resistance level against the US Dollar, but it failed. As a result, the GBP/USD pair started a steady decline below the 1.3950 level.

The pair even broke the 1.3920 support level and it settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. Finally, there was a break below the 1.3900 support and the pair traded as low as 1.3855 on FXOpen.

It is now consolidating losses above the 1.3850 support. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.3875 level. The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3948 swing high to 1.3855 low is also near the 1.3875 level.

The first major resistance is now forming near the 1.3900 zone and 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3948 swing high to 1.3855 low.

Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3915 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. Therefore, a proper break above the 1.3900 resistance and the trend line could open the doors for a steady increase.

An immediate support on the downside is near the 1.3850 level. A downside break below the 1.3850 level might call for more losses. The next major support is near the 1.3800 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.3740 level in the near term.

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Solid Jobs Report Sends the US Dollar Higher



The US dollar reversed the recent losses and closed the last week higher. Responsible for the move was the July NFP report.

The market expected a positive report, but the outcome exceeded expectations. The US economy added over 940k new jobs in July. Moreover, the data for the previous month was revised higher by over 100k jobs.

All the elements in the report pointed to a strong recovery of the US economy. Besides the better headline number, the Unemployment Rate declined to 5.4% – another positive development.

Sure enough, the US economy still needs to recover about 5 million jobs lost during the pandemic. But solid reports like the one from last Friday bring the Fed closer to fulfill its employment mandate, and thus the tightening of the financial conditions may be just around the corner.

The Fed, as a central bank, has a dual mandate. It aims at price stability and maximum employment.

The price stability mandate is monitored by the changes in inflation. Inflation is already above Fed’s target, even though it is unclear how long is the period the Fed looks at averaging inflation to 2%.

What remains is improvements in the labor market – and the July NFP report shows such improvements. The bias is now that the Fed will announce the tapering of its asset purchases sooner than expected, and so the US dollar ticked higher on the news.



The Technical Picture Also Favors a Stronger Dollar

From a technical analysis perspective, the US dollar may be at the end of a cycle. The Dollar index formed a double top at the 100 level, but it recently found both horizontal and dynamic support in the 90 area.

A quick look at the rising trend reveals the fact that the Dollar index has kept the series of higher lows intact, just like it is supposed to do in a rising trend. Hence, as long as the index holds above 89, the bias remains bullish.

Moving forward, traders will look for clues about what the Fed will do next. Is the July NFP report strong enough to trigger earlier tapering? If yes, the US dollar’s rally should continue unabated.

FXOpen Blog

EUR/USD Could Recover, USD/JPY Gains Momentum



EUR/USD started a major decline and it traded below 1.1750. USD/JPY is rising and it even broke the 110.50 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro started a major decline below the 1.1800 and 1.1780 levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1725 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY started a fresh increase above the main 110.00 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 110.50 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After a failed attempt to clear 1.1850, the Euro started a major decline against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1800 support zone to move into a bearish zone.

The pair settled below the 1.1800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It even broke the 1.1750 support level and traded as low as 1.1709 on FXOpen. It is now consolidating gains above the 1.1700 support zone.



An immediate resistance is near the 1.1725 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1725 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

The first key resistance is near the 1.1750 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1895 swing high to 1.1709 low. Any more gains could start a decent increase towards the 1.1800 resistance.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1895 swing high to 1.1709 low is also near the 1.1800 level. A close above 1.1800 could open the doors for a steady increase towards 1.1850.

If not, the pair might continue to move down below 1.1710. An intermediate support is near the 1.1700 level. The next major support is near the 1.1680 level, below which the pair could drop towards the 1.1640 support in the near term.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Target Additional Losses



AUD/USD started a fresh decline from well above the 0.7400 level. NZD/USD also declined below the 0.7020 and 0.7000 support levels.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a major decline after it failed to clear 0.7440 against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7365 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD also started a fresh decline from well above the 0.7050 level.
• There was a break below a key contracting triangle with support near 0.7015 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis



After struggling to clear the 0.7440 resistance, the Aussie Dollar started a major decline against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7400 and 0.7380 support levels to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even broke the 0.7350 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Recently, there was a recovery wave, but the pair failed to clear the 0.7400 resistance zone. It is now trading below the 0.7345 level and traded as low as 0.7332 on FXOpen.

It is now consolidating losses above the 0.7335 level. An immediate resistance is near the 0.7355 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7389 swing high to 0.7332 low.

The next major resistance is near the 0.7360 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7389 swing high to 0.7332 low.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7365 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. To move into a positive zone, the pair must settle above 0.7360 and the 50 hourly SMA.

An initial support on the downside is near the 0.7335 level. The next major support is near the 0.7320 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.7320 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7250 level.

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