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This is a discussion on Tifia Daily Market Analytics within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; USD/CAD: US dollar resumed growth 09/01/2020 Current Dynamics Against the backdrop of the weakening US dollar, the USD / CAD ...

      
   
  1. #621
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    USD/CAD: US dollar resumed growth
    09/01/2020
    Current Dynamics

    Against the backdrop of the weakening US dollar, the USD / CAD pair broke through the key support level 1.3205 (EMA144 and EMA200 on the daily chart) last month and reached 1.2957 in early January. Further decline and breakdown of the long-term support level of 1.2930 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) would mean breaking the bullish trend of USD / CAD.
    Nevertheless, there was no further decrease in USD / CAD and today the pair has been growing for the third day in a row.
    The pair’s growth is facilitated by both the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in oil prices that followed after their significant increase on the eve amid a sharp aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. As you know, on Tuesday night, Iran launched a missile attack on US military bases in Iraq.
    However, as follows from the statements of the White House, none of the US military was injured.
    In turn, the Iranian Foreign Minister tweeted that the missile attacks were not intended to escalate the conflict or start a war.
    The words of US President Trump that "everything is fine", and Iran, it seems, does not intend to continue the conflict, reassured investors, which helped to renew the rally of US stock indices and the USD.
    USD / CAD broke through the short-term resistance level 1.3027 on Wednesday (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), which was the first signal to resume long positions, and is trading on Thursday near the local resistance level 1.3050 (October lows).
    If the growth continues, USD / CAD will go to the resistance level 1.3120 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), and in case of breakdown, the growth will accelerate to the key resistance level 1.3205.
    The December report of the US Ministry of Labor will be published on Friday. Economists expect jobs to reach +160,000, while unemployment remains at 3.5%, as in November.
    Also, on Friday at the same time (at 13:30 GMT) will be published data from the Canadian labor market. In December, Canada's unemployment rate is expected to be 5.8%. This is slightly better than the November figure, but still worse than the average for 2019 (about 5.6% - 5.7%). Growth in unemployment is a negative factor for the national currency. If the data turn out to be worse than the forecast of 5.8%, then the Canadian dollar will drop sharply, and the growth of USD / CAD will continue.
    In an alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the short-term support level 1.3027 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), short positions will again become relevant.
    Nevertheless, in this period of time (13:30 GMT) on Friday, a sharp increase in volatility in the foreign exchange market is expected, and above all - in the pair USD / CAD.
    From the news today it is worth paying attention to the speech at 19:00 (GMT) of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz. If in his speech today he touches on the topic of monetary policy, the volatility of Canadian dollar quotes will increase. If Stephen Poloz speaks out in favor of the need for a softer monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, then the weakening of the Canadian dollar and the growth of USD / CAD will accelerate.
    Support Levels: 1.3027, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930
    Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3120, 1.3205, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.3025. Stop-Loss 1.3065. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930
    Buy Stop 1.3065. Stop-Loss 1.3025. Take-Profit 1.3120, 1.3205, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452



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  2. #622
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    Brent: prices fell sharply after rising
    earlier
    10/01/2020
    Current Dynamics

    Dollar growth continues on Friday. The DXY dollar index, which reflects the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major currencies, rose another 0.18% to 97.25, 10 points above today's open price. Most likely, the dollar will also end this week on a positive note, if data from the US labor market will meet the expectations of market participants. The publication of this data is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT), and economists expect that in December the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector of the American economy increased by +160,000, while unemployment remained at 3.5%, as In November.
    A report by the ADP Research Institute on the change in the number of employees published on Wednesday indicated an increase in jobs in the private sector of the US economy by 202,000 in December (the forecast was +160,000). November ADP data on jobs were revised up to +124,000, while earlier it was reported an increase of 67,000. These are very positive data indicating the stability of the US labor market.
    Meanwhile, oil prices continue to decline on Friday, both against the backdrop of a stronger dollar and after statements by US President Donald Trump, which eased investors' concerns about escalating the conflict in the Middle East region.
    As the degree of tension in the Middle East declined, the price also began to decline. At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is trading near the short-term support level of 66.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
    Nevertheless, above the support levels of 64.30 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 63.90 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2% of downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the October 2018 highs near the level of $86.60 per barrel), long-term positive dynamics Brent oil prices remain.
    Therefore, a decrease to the support level of 66.00 provides a good opportunity to build up long positions.
    In the case of a breakthrough of the local maximum of 69.70, recorded in September after the drone attack on large oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the next growth target will be the resistance level of 72.60 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the upper border of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
    In an alternative scenario, the signal for resumption of sales will be a breakdown of support levels 66.00, 65.10 (EMA50 on the daily chart) with targets at support levels 64.30, 63.90, 63.00. The breakdown of these support levels will mean breaking the bull trend and the resumption of the global downtrend with support at 60.40 (May lows), 58.50, 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
    From the news today regarding oil prices, it is worth paying attention to the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes. According to the latest report, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States grew over the past month by just 2 rigs, to 670 units from 668 units 4 weeks ago. However, this is much less than the number of active drilling rigs at the beginning of June (800 units) and at the beginning of September (742 units). If a Baker Hughes report indicates a decline in the number of active rigs, it could also support oil prices.
    Support Levels: 66.00, 65.10, 64.30, 63.90, 63.00, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
    Resistance Levels: 66.65, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell Stop 64.90. Stop-Loss 66.70. Take-Profit 64.30, 63.90, 63.00, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
    Buy Stop 66.70. Stop-Loss 64.90. Take-Profit 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60



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  3. #623
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    GBP/USD: the pair still has positive dynamics
    Current dynamics
    13/01/2020

    Pound and GBP / USD are falling at the beginning of the new week. Last Thursday, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said the Monetary Policy Committee was ready to take action if the weakness of the economy continued. At the same time, member of the committee, Sylvanas Tenreiro, said on Friday that further stimulation of the British economy is possible in the "coming months". Another member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Gertyan Wlige, also spoke in the same tone in an interview with the Financial Times on Monday, saying he would vote in January to lower interest rates if there are no signs of an improvement in the economy.
    Following the publication of fresh UK macro data at the beginning of today's European session, the pound accelerated its decline. According to the data presented, production in the UK manufacturing sector decreased by -1.7% in November (-2% in annual terms with a forecast of -1.7%), and overall industrial production decreased by -1.2% in November ( -1.6% in annual terms). The data turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts of economists.
    Data continues to show the extremely negative impact of the Brexit process on the British economy.
    After the publication of macro data, the GBP / USD pair fell to 1.2970, which is 88 points below the closing price last Friday. If GBP / USD continues to decline, the goals will be the support levels of 1.2910 (December lows), 1.2800 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
    So far (and above the key support level of 1.2800), medium-term positive dynamics of GBP / USD remains. The return of GBP / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 1.3090 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will indicate the restoration of positive dynamics. In this case, the growth will continue towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD reduce in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). A breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3510 will mark targets at resistance levels of 1.3960 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.4350 (highs of January and April 2018), 1.4580 (Fibonacci level of 50%). Growth above the level of 1.4580 will mean the final break of the bearish trend.
    At the same time, the dollar is likely to retain its position in the current conditions. Investors are now excitedly waiting for the first-phase trade agreement between the US and China on January 15. The parties also intend to continue negotiations on a broader economic cooperation and agreed to hold negotiations twice a year with the aim of promoting economic reforms and resolving disputes. Such a development of events is also likely to help maintain demand for US assets and the dollar.
    Support Levels: 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2800
    Resistance Levels: 1.3015, 1.3050, 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.2960. Stop-Loss 1.3060. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2800
    Buy Stop 1.3060. Stop-Loss 1.2960. Take-Profit 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190


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  4. #624
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    S&P 500: need new drivers to continue the rally
    14/01/2020

    The risks of escalating the conflict between the US and Iran have declined. Investors are waiting for the signing of the “first phase” of a trade agreement between the US and China on Wednesday. The parties also intend to continue negotiations on a broader economic cooperation and agreed to hold negotiations twice a year with the aim of promoting economic reforms and resolving disputes. The strongest negative factor and risks holding back the growth of the global economy seem to be starting to decline.
    At the same time, it should be noted that the signing of this trade agreement is already mainly taken into account in prices. Therefore, to continue the rally in the stock market, additional drivers are needed.
    On Tuesday, the volatility of the dollar and US stock indexes may rise at 13:30 (GMT), when the latest data on consumer inflation in the US will be published. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), which is a key indicator for measuring inflation and changing consumer preferences, is expected to increase +0.2% in December (as it did in the previous two months). If the data for December is weaker than the forecast, then the dollar will most likely respond with a short-term, but strong decline, and stock indices are likely to rise.
    According to the latest data from the US Department of Labor published on Friday, private sector wages rose 2.9% in December compared with the same period last year. This is the weakest growth since July 2018, which, according to investors, does not raise concerns about rising inflation. So, the Fed will not raise interest rates to curb inflation. This is a positive fact for buyers in the stock market.
    The S&P 500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above key support levels of 3010.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3068.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0). Long positions are preferred.
    In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the short-term support level 3255.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the correctional decline of S&P 500 can continue to the support levels 3196.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 3168.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). However, only a breakdown of support levels of 3010.0 and 2926.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will increase the risks of the bullish trend S&P 500 breaking.
    Support Levels: 3255.0, 3196.0, 3168.0, 3100.0, 3068.0, 3010.0, 2926.0
    Resistance Levels: 3294.0, 3300.0

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell Stop 3254.0. Stop-Loss 3296.0. Goals 3196.0, 3168.0, 3100.0, 3068.0, 3010.0, 2926.0
    Buy Stop 3296.0. Stop-Loss 3254.0. Goals 3300.0, 3350.0, 3400.0


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  5. #625
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    GBP/USD: the pound remains under pressure from disappointing macro data
    15/01/2020

    After the release of fresh UK macro data (at 09:30 GMT), GBP / USD continued to decline on Wednesday, trading at the moment near the 1.2995 mark and the EMA50 support level on the daily chart.
    The dynamics of the pound, which has already fallen by about 2% since the beginning of the year, is determined by weak macro data coming from the UK and the continuing uncertainty about Brexit.
    The UK should leave the EU on January 31, although access to the EU markets in their current form will remain at least until the end of this year, while the terms of a new agreement are being worked out.
    However, weak economic data suggests that uncertainty about Brexit harms the economy more than many observers expected.
    Following comments by Bank of England management and disappointing macro data this week, market participants sharply increased the likelihood of policy easing at a Bank of England meeting on January 30. If the bank really lowers the rate (as predicted by some economists, by 0.25%), then the drop in the pound in the absence of progress on Brexit is likely to accelerate.
    Now the attention of market participants has shifted to the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China. The signing process will begin at 16:00 (GMT). The White House will evaluate the progress made and, possibly, reduce duties on goods from China again, but not earlier than 10 months after the signing of the trade agreement planned for today. Existing duties on Chinese imports will remain in effect until the end of the US presidential election in November 2020.
    Despite today's decline in the pound, above the key support level of 1.2800 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), medium-term positive dynamics of GBP / USD remains.
    If GBP / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 1.3050 (EMA200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour chart), the pair will continue to grow towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP/USD reduce in the wave that started in July 2014, near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
    Support Levels: 1.2995, 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800
    Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3055. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800
    Buy Stop 1.3055. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190


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  6. #626
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    DJIA: positive fundamental background
    16/01/2020

    Despite the fact that the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the United States and China has largely been won back by markets, investors enthusiastically welcomed this event.
    US President Donald Trump called the deal a crucial and unprecedented step in relations with China, leading to "fair and mutually beneficial trade".
    Speaking to reporters, Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow called the signed agreement the best deal ever made between the United States and China.
    The United States agreed to lower duties on Chinese goods worth $ 120 billion to 7.5% and to cancel the previously planned introduction of new duties on imports from China.
    Meanwhile, as Trump had previously stated, the remaining fees will be used in working out the “second phase” agreement.
    If, in the course of fulfilling the obligations undertaken, one of the parties violates them, then the infringed party will be entitled to take “proportional measures of protection”, which, in essence, means the restoration of duties.
    So far, markets have ignored the likelihood of possible complications during the elaboration of the “second stage” of the trade agreement.
    As the Beige Book published last Wednesday, the U.S. economy continued to grow at a moderate pace in the last six weeks of 2019. “Expectations regarding short-term prospects remain moderately favorable in the country”, the Fed said.
    Thus, the fundamental factor speaks in favor of the further growth of US stock indices and the DJIA index as well.
    In an alternative scenario, the first signal for sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 28855.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels 28420.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 27400.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 27100.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the key support levels of 27400.0, 27100.0, the long-term upward dynamics of the DJIA remains.
    Support Levels: 28855.0, 28420.0, 28000.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 25945.0, 25050.0, 24600.0, 23970.0
    Resistance Levels: 29180.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Buy Stop 29205.0. Stop-Loss 28850.0. Take-Profit 29300.0, 30000.0
    Sell Stop 28850.0. Stop-Loss 29205.0. Take-Profit 28420.0, 28000.0, 27400.0


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  7. #627
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    EUR/USD: the pair is again under pressure
    17/01/2020

    The weakening Euro and lower EUR / USD continued on Friday. On Thursday and Friday, the EUR / USD pair has broken important support levels of 1.1138 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1122 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and continued to decline towards the support level 1.1109 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) .
    In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1109 and further decrease, the goal will be the local support level 1.1064. A deeper decline or resumption of growth will depend on the fundamental background.
    As follows from the protocols published on Thursday from the December meeting of the ECB, the bank's leaders promised not to raise the key interest rate until inflation reaches the target level (slightly less than 2%), which is unlikely in the coming months and, possibly, years. The executives also said that even with negative rates, bank returns will be on the positive side, noting that interest rates can be reduced even more if necessary.
    At the same time, previously published macro data showed that at the beginning of 2020, the US fundamental indicators supporting consumer spending (low unemployment and rising earnings) remain stable. According to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, retail sales in December grew by 0.3%. As you know, consumer spending is more than 2/3 of US GDP.
    Today, market participants will follow the publication at 15:00 (GMT) of the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in January. It is expected that this indicator will be released in January with a value of 99.4 (against 99.3 in December). This is a high indicator, which indicates the growth of the economy and the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. The publication of the indicator is also likely to support the dollar.
    Below the key resistance level of 1.1155 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains and short positions are preferred.
    In an alternative scenario, a signal to resume purchases will be a growth into the zone above resistance levels 1.1122, 1.1138 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
    Support Levels: 1.1109, 1.1064, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900
    Resistance Levels: 1.1120, 1.1138, 1.1155, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1064, 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900
    Buy Stop 1.1125. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.1155, 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1285


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  8. #628
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    GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
    After the publication of data from the retail sector in the UK and the USA last Friday, GBP / USD continues to decline today for the second day in a row.
    In the UK, retail sales in December fell by -0.6% in the country (v.s. a forecast of +0.7%), and in the United States, according to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, they grew by 0.3% compared to the previous month.
    Strong retail sales in the 4th quarter will have a positive impact on the growth rate of US GDP, economists say, expecting GDP growth in the 4th quarter at 2.5 - 2.6%.
    At the same time, weak macro data recently received from the UK reinforce expectations of a softening of the Bank of England policy at a meeting on January 30.
    In the USA today is a day off on the occasion of the celebration of the birthday of Martin L. King. Therefore, trading volumes during the american trading session will be low, which, however, does not exclude the possibility of a sharp increase in volatility in the "thin market".
    The volatility in the GBP / USD pair may again rise sharply tomorrow after the publication (at 09:30 GMT) of the UK labor market data. It is likely that the data will indicate a slowdown in wage growth and that unemployment is no longer dropping, although it is close to the lows over the past few years.
    Meanwhile, the GBP / USD pair broke through the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and is trading below important resistance levels of 1.2995 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1.3050 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts).
    In case of breakdown of the support levels 1.2955, 1.2910 (local lows), a further decrease in GBP / USD is likely.
    Below resistance levels 1.3120 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 1.3050, short positions are preferred.
    Support Levels: 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800
    Resistance Levels: 1.2995, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.2945. Stop-Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2800
    Buy Stop 1.3010. Stop-Loss 1.2945. Take-Profit 1.2995, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510



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  9. #629
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    USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
    21/01/2020

    In December, following a decision by the Bank of Canada not to change monetary policy, and amid a weakening US dollar, the USD / CAD pair fell sharply, breaking through the key support level of 1.3195 (ЕМА144 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
    The Bank of Canada leadership is looking positively at the state of the country's economy and labor market. Back in November, Stephen Poloz said that "the current monetary policy remains appropriate in this situation" and, in his opinion, it still "largely remains stimulating".
    The regular meeting of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy issues will be held on Wednesday, and the decision on the rate will be published at 15:00 (GMT).
    As expected, the Bank of Canada will not change the current interest rate, which is at the level of 1.75%, and will give a moderately positive assessment of the state of the Canadian economy. At 16:15, the bank’s press conference will begin, which can also cause sharp fluctuations in the Canadian dollar quotes if unexpected statements are made by the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz.
    USD / CAD reached 1.2957 mark in January. Nevertheless, the breakdown of the support level of 1.2930 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), which would indicate a break in the bull trend, has not occurred, so far, and the USD / CAD is growing again, breaking through the short-term resistance level 1.3052 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
    The immediate goal in case of continued growth of USD / CAD will be the resistance level 1.3096 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), and in case of its breakdown, the growth will accelerate to the key resistance level 1.3195. Growth into the zone above this resistance level will indicate a restoration of the bullish trend of USD / CAD.
    You can return to sales if USD / CAD falls into the zone below the support level of 1.3027.
    Below this level, short positions will again become preferable.
    Support Levels: 1.3052, 1.3027, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930
    Resistance Levels: 1.3096, 1.3120, 1.3195, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.3025. Stop-Loss 1.3100. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930
    Buy Stop 1.3105. Stop-Loss 1.3025. Take-Profit 1.3120, 1.3190, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400



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