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This is a discussion on Tifia Daily Market Analytics within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; S&P500: New Year rally continues 12/02/2019 After progress appeared in US-China trade negotiations, growth in the US stock market accelerated. ...

      
   
  1. #601
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    S&P500: New Year rally continues
    12/02/2019

    After progress appeared in US-China trade negotiations, growth in the US stock market accelerated.
    According to statements by the Ministry of Commerce of China made last month, the parties "agreed to properly resolve key issues and confirmed that the technical consultations on some parts of the text of the agreement have basically been completed".
    Last week, US President Donald Trump signed law to support protesters in Hong Kong, but China refrained from retaliation. The parties are still set to sign a trade agreement. Trump is likely to also refrain from introducing December 15 previously announced new import duties on Chinese goods.
    On Monday, world and US stock indices received additional support after the publication of positive macro data, indicating that the second largest economy in the world continues to grow, despite a trade conflict with the United States. So, the Procurement Managers Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector according to Caixin in November rose to 51.8 from 51.7 in October. The indicator is growing above level 50, signaling an increase in demand for Chinese goods.
    US stock indices are rising, rewriting absolute highs and continuing New Year's rally. At the beginning of the European session on Monday, the S&P 500 is trading near the 3155.0 mark, the Dow Jones Industrial Average - near the 28200.0 mark, and the Nasdaq100 - near the 8450.0 mark.
    Trading above the key support level of 2940.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), as well as the level of 2962.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0), S&P500 maintains a long-term positive dynamics.
    Long positions are preferable, and above support levels 3130.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 3078.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) purchases look safe.
    Support Levels: 3130.0, 3078.0, 3028.0, 2962.0, 2940.0, 2845.0
    Resistance Levels: 3157.0

    Trading recommendations

    Sell ​​Stop 3128.0. Stop-Loss 3158.0. Objectives 3078.0, 3028.0, 2962.0, 2940.0
    Buy Stop 3158.0. Stop-Loss 3128.0. Objectives 3150.0, 3200.0


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  2. #602
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    NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
    12/03/2019

    According to the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday, the manufacturing PMI index fell to 48.1 in November from 48.3 in October (the forecast was 49.2).
    The manufacturing sector does not have such a significant effect on US GDP as consumer spending. However, it is an important indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole.
    Index values ​​below 50 indicate a decline in activity. At the same time, the value of the manufacturing PMI below this mark has been observed for the fourth month in a row.
    New manufacturers were pressured by new import duties and uncertainty over the US-China trade dispute.
    The DXY dollar index reached a new 7-week high last Friday near 98.50. However, on Tuesday, the DXY index is down for the second day in a row. At the beginning of today's European session, futures on the DXY dollar index was trading near 97.75, 45 points below the closing price last Friday.
    This week, investors will be waiting for the publication of data on the US services sector (on Wednesday at 14:45 and 17:00 GMT), as well as a report on employment by the Department of Labor (on Friday at 13:30 GMT). In general, strong data are expected from the US labor market. At the same time, unemployment remained at a multi-year low of 3.6%.
    If the data is confirmed or is better than the forecast, then the US dollar will quickly catch up.
    In the first half of the trading day on Tuesday, NZD strengthened, and the NZD / USD pair rose, and for the second day in a row. At the beginning of the American session, NZD / USD is trading near the 0.6512 mark, through which the key resistance level passes (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). At 0.6545, there is another strong long-term resistance level (EMA50 on the weekly chart). To pass these strongest levels, the NZD / USD pair needs additional drivers. If positive macro data begins to arrive from the USA, then NZD/USD can rebound from current levels and return into the global downtrend.
    Below the support level of 0.6465 (EMA144 on the daily chart) short positions will again become relevant.
    * Support Levels: 0.6465, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
    Resistance Levels: 0.6512, 0.6545

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell ​​Stop 0.6490. Sell ​​Limit 0.6545. Stop-Loss 0.6610. Take-Profit 0.6465, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
    Buy Stop 0.6610. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6790



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  3. #603
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    USD/CAD: will the Bank of Canada reduce the rate?
    12/04/2019

    Bank of Canada managing director Stephen Poloz said last month that the central bank is pursuing the right policy, given the current uncertainty about how global negative factors will affect the country's economy.
    "We believe that monetary policy is in line with the current situation", said the head of the Bank of Canada, and "remains largely stimulating", he added.
    In his opinion, the overall economic situation in Canada is favorable, although trade conflicts harm Canada’s exports and the investment of Canadian companies.
    During 2019, the Bank of Canada kept the key rate at 1.75%, and according to the majority of financial market participants, at its meeting on Wednesday, the central bank will leave the key interest rate unchanged, at 1.75%.
    According to the economic advisers of the central bank, the easing of monetary policy could provoke credit growth and lead to overheating of real estate markets in the country, especially in large cities.
    At the same time, there is an opinion that the central bank should nevertheless consider reducing interest rates in order to prevent the negative economic consequences of the current trade conflicts.
    Last Tuesday, US President Donald Trump signaled that a trade war with China would continue next year. Trump said he “has no deadline” to conclude a trade agreement with China, and he “likes the idea of waiting until the election”.
    Reducing the likelihood of a soon deal may put pressure on commodity prices and commodity currencies quotes, in particular the Canadian dollar.
    If, on the part of the Bank of Canada, signals are sent today aimed at easing monetary policy in the short term, the Canadian dollar could drop sharply. The decision on the rate will be published at 15:00, and at 16:15 (GMT) a press conference will begin, during which the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz will explain the position of the bank and give an assessment of the current economic situation in the country.
    Meanwhile, USD / CAD broke through the short-term support level 1.3286 on Wednesday (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and is developing a downward trend towards the key support level 1.3238 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
    In case of breakdown and a further decrease in USD / CAD, the targets will be support levels 1.3200, 1.3138 (September lows), 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042.
    If the Bank of Canada today shows a tendency to soft monetary policy, then USD / CAD will resume growth, and a breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3286 will signal a resumption of long positions.
    Support Levels: 1.3238, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015
    Resistance Levels: 1.3286, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.3305. Take-Profit 1.3238, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015
    Buy Stop 1.3305. Stop-Loss 1.3270. Take-Profit 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  4. #604
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    Brent: prices rise again
    12/05/2019

    Oil prices rose sharply again on Wednesday amid positive reports regarding the course of trade negotiations between the US and China and in anticipation of the outcome of the OPEC meeting.
    Bloomberg announced that the United States and China are close to concluding a preliminary trade agreement, which may be signed as early as December 15. This deal could spur oil demand.
    Oil quotes also rose thanks to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), published on Wednesday, according to which oil reserves fell by 4.856 million barrels last week (against the forecast of -1.734 million barrels).
    ICE Brent crude futures rose 3.6% to $ 63 a barrel, and today, prices continue to rise.
    At the beginning of today's European trading session, Brent crude is trading at $63.90 a barrel.
    The price again makes an attempt to gain a foothold in the zone above the key resistance levels 63.70 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 63.90 (Fibonacci 38.2% level of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from a level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel) .
    On Friday (at 18:00 GMT) the next weekly report of Baker Hughes will be published.
    If he again indicates a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs, this could give a new positive impetus to prices.
    A breakdown of the local resistance level of 64.55 (monthly highs) will strengthen the bullish momentum and direct the price to the nearest resistance levels of 65.10, 66.10, 67.50.
    Nevertheless, despite the growth, in general, the global downtrend of prices prevails.
    A signal for resuming sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 63.00 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart and ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
    Support Levels: 63.70, 63.00, 62.35, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
    Resistance Levels: 64.00, 64.55, 65.10, 67.50

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell Stop 63.30. Stop-Loss 64.60. Take-Profit 62.35, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
    Buy Stop 64.60. Stop-Loss 63.30. Take-Profit 65.10, 67.00, 67.50


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  5. #605
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    USD/CAD: on the eve of NFP publication and unemployment data
    12/06/2019

    Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada left the key interest rate unchanged, signaling that additional monetary stimulus could be implemented in the foreseeable future. “Further decisions regarding rates will depend on the bank’s assessment of the negative impact of trade conflicts on the sources of stability of the Canadian economy”, the bank said in a statement.
    The pair USD / CAD fell sharply after the decision of the Bank of Canada not to change the monetary policy. Having broken through the key support level of 1.3235 (EMA144 and EMA200 on the daily chart), USD / CAD continues to decline towards the lower border of the range located between the levels of 1.3138 and 1.3345.
    A breakdown of the support levels 1.3042, 1.3015, corresponding to annual minimums, and a decrease to the area below the support level 1.2920 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will indicate a break in the long-term bullish trend of USD / CAD.
    In an alternative scenario, and after returning to the zone above the resistance level 1.3235, long positions will become relevant again.
    On Friday, investors will be waiting for the publication of employment reports by the US and Canadian Department of Labor (at 13:30 GMT). Strong data expected in the USA. At the same time, unemployment remained at a multi-year low of 3.6%. Unemployment stays at current levels for 20 consecutive months. This is the longest period since the 1960s. The Fed is guided by the level of inflation, GDP and the state of the labor market, which remains a bright spot against the general background.
    In Canada, unemployment in October was 5.5%. If unemployment rises, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data turn out to be better than the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in unemployment is a positive factor for the currency, an increase in unemployment is a negative factor.
    Thus, during the publication of data from the US and Canadian labor markets (at 13:30 GMT), a sharp increase in volatility is expected in the financial market, especially in the USD / CAD pair.
    Support Levels: 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015
    Resistance Levels: 1.3235, 1.3286, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell Stop 1.3150. Stop-Loss 1.3210. Take-Profit 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015
    Buy Stop 1.3210. Stop-Loss 1.3150. Take-Profit 1.3235, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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