Tifia Daily Market Analytics

DJIA: Current Dynamics
11/18/2019
US stock indexes continue to grow and break new records, updating absolute highs.
At the beginning of the European session on Monday, the S&P 500 is trading near the 3122.0 mark, and the Nasdaq100 is near the 8330.0 mark. Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through the resistance level of 28000.0, trading at the time of publication of the article near the mark of 28050.00.
Investor enthusiasm stems from expectations of a trade agreement between the US and China. Investors continue to follow any comments by the US and Chinese authorities regarding trade negotiations. The deterioration of prospects in this direction may again bring down stock indices.
The Fed’s propensity to maintain soft policy, as well as a revival of economic activity in the US, which is exceeded by expectations for GDP data for the 3rd quarter and the improvement of the American labor market in October, according to data presented at the beginning of the month, are also of positive importance for American stock indices.
In an alternative scenario, the signal for DJIA sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 27700.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). The immediate goal of the decline is located at the support level of 27250.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
In case of further decline, the targets will be the key support levels 26600.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 26400.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 26400.0 may provoke a further decrease to support levels of 25270.0 (August lows), an important support level of 25050.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave, which began in February 2016 from 15500.0), 24600.0 (lows of June 2019).
Nevertheless, the long-term positive dynamics of US stock indices remains. Long positions by DJIA are preferred.
On Wednesday (at 19:00 GMT) the minutes of the October meeting of the Fed will be published, which may cause increased volatility in the financial markets if the protocol texts contain unexpected information regarding the prospects for monetary policy or the state of the US economy.
Support Levels: 28000.0, 27700.0, 27400.0, 27250.0, 26900.0, 26600.0, 26400.0
Resistance Levels: 28100.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 27680.0. Take-Profit 28100.0, 28500, 29000.0
Sell Stop 27680.0. Stop-Loss 28040.0. Take-Profit 27400.0, 27250.0, 26900.0, 26600.0, 26400.0


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: after the meeting of the RBNZ
19/11/2019
In the period after 14:00 (GMT), data from the milk auction will be published. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index prepared by Global Dairy Trade came out with a value of +3.7% (against the forecast of +1.9% and an increase of 0.5% in the previous 2-week period). A significant part of New Zealand exports is dairy products, primarily milk powder. The increase in world prices for dairy products provides additional support to the New Zealand economy, increasing the level of export foreign currency earnings.
According to the forecast, it is expected that prices for dairy products rose again in the previous 2 weeks, and the price index will come out with a value of +1.6%. If the data coincides with the forecast or is better than it, then the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD.
Meanwhile, the US dollar remains vulnerable after weak data on US industrial production came out Friday, as well as reports that U.S. President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell met on Monday to discuss economic issues, including the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Trump later said after a 30-minute meeting with Powell that he had protested that the Fed’s rate was still too high compared to the interest rates of competing countries. In his opinion, the interest rate in the United States should be lower than in these countries.
The New Zealand dollar resumed growth after last week the RBNZ unexpectedly did not change its policy and left the interest rate at 1.0%.
At the beginning of the European session, NZD / USD is trading near 0.6410, 0.6420, continuing corrective growth in the upward channel on the daily chart. The upper boundary of this channel runs near the 0.6520 and EMA200 level on the daily chart. The upward correction of NZD / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance levels of 0.6465 (ЕМА144), 06520 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
A breakdown of the support level of 0.6385 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be the first signal to resume sales of NZD / USD with targets at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100.
Support Levels: 0.6390, 0.6385, 0.6372, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Resistance Levels: 0.6435, 0.6465, 0.6520

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6380. Stop-Loss 0.6425. Sell Limit 0.6465, 0.6520. Stop-Loss 0.6550. Take-Profit 0.6372, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Buy Stop 0.6425. Stop-Loss 0.6380. Take-Profit 0.6435, 0.6465, 0.6520


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
11/20/2019
In the first ten days of October, the USD / CAD pair broke through an important support level (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart), which at that time passed through the 1.3230 mark and reached a local minimum near the 1.3042 mark by the end of October.
Nevertheless, there was no further decline of USD / CAD, and after the meeting of the Bank of Canada and the Fed, at which the Fed leaders announced the suspension of the rate reduction cycle, the US dollar began to strengthen, including in the USD / CAD pair.
The long-term positive dynamics of the US dollar and, accordingly, the USD / CAD pair, which continues to trade above the key and long-term support level of 1.2920 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), remains.
At the beginning of the European session, USD / CAD is trading above 1.3300 mark, developing an upward trend.
While USD / CAD is trading in the zone above the support level of 1.3227 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), you should look for the opportunity to enter long positions.
A signal for sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 1.3227. In this case, the reduction targets will be the support levels 1.3200, 1.3138 (September lows), 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042.
From the news for today it is worth paying attention to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of consumer price indices in Canada, as well as weekly data on oil reserves in the USA (at 15:30 GMT). Forecast for October: the consumer price index will come out with a value of +1.9% (in annual terms). Core CPI is also expected to increase by +1.9% in October. Data better than expected and above the previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar. If the data for October is worse than the previous values, then this will negatively affect CAD.
Also, CAD may be negatively affected by the publication of US Department of Energy data on oil reserves, which are expected to rise again last week (+1.1 million barrels).
Pessimism over US-China trade relations is forcing investors to give up risk by raising demand for safe assets and the dollar, as well as putting pressure on commodity goods prices and commodity currencies, such as CAD.
Oil prices are falling, as the stalled US-China trade negotiations causes worry about demand prospects. The overall decline in oil prices this week was already 4.7%.
As Carolyn Wilkins, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, said on Tuesday, “the risks for global GDP growth have intensified”, and “the uncertainty surrounding foreign trade remains heightened”. “We cannot afford to lose our vigilance”, she said, “especially when it comes to recession”. The next meeting of the Bank of Canada on the issue of monetary policy is scheduled for December 4.
Volatility growth in the financial market today is also expected at 19:00 (GMT), when the minutes from the October meeting of the Fed will be published, especially if they contain unexpected information regarding the issue of monetary policy of the US central bank.
Support Levels: 1.3300, 1.3270, 1.3227, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015
Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3250. Stop-Loss 1.3320. Take-Profit 1.3227, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015
Buy Stop 1.3320. Buy Limit 1.3270. Stop-Loss 1.3250. Take-Profit 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: the Fed took a wait and see position
11/21/2019
The minutes published on Wednesday from the Fed meeting in October confirmed the central bank’s leadership’s attitude to take a wait-and-see attitude to determine if the economy will need additional stimulus in the coming months.
"Most participants decided that monetary policy after lowering rates by a quarter percentage point at this meeting will be precisely tuned to maintain prospects for moderate economic growth, a strong labor market", the minutes said.
The probability of the next one reduction in rates by the middle of next year, according to the CME Group, is about 50%.
However, the dollar is falling on Thursday. At the start of today's European session, the DXY dollar index futures are trading near 97.70, 6 pips below today's open price and 13 pips below open price earlier this week.
Now, participants in the financial market will follow the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of the minutes from the ECB meeting in October. If the protocols contain unexpected statements or new information regarding the prospects of monetary policy, this could lead to a surge in volatility in trading on the euro and on the European stock market.
In October, the ECB did not change its monetary policy and announced no new measures. At the same time, among the Governing Council of the ECB, voices of opponents of the current incentive policy are increasingly heard.
The next meeting of the ECB on monetary policy will be held on December 12, and any changes in the mood of the ECB leaders and their opinion on the current monetary policy of the central bank may lead to increased volatility in the financial markets, especially for the euro and EUR / USD.
Currently, EUR / USD is developing an upward trend, trading above short-term support levels of 1.1065 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1.1060 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Nevertheless, EUR / USD growth is above key resistance levels of 1.1130 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1175 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) is unlikely.
In general, the long-term bearish trend of EUR / USD remains. The breakdown of the support level of 1.1060 will be a signal for the resumption of sales of EUR / USD.
Support Levels: 1.1065, 1.1060, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900
Resistance Levels: 1.1110, 1.1130, 1.1175

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1050. Stop-Loss 1.1110. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Buy Stop 1.1095. Stop-Loss 1.1050. Take-Profit 1.1110, 1.1130, 1.1175


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Brent: near key resistance levels
11/22/2019
Against the backdrop of investor optimism regarding the imminent conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China, Brent crude prices rose in the past 2 months, exceeding $64.00 per barrel last Thursday. Nevertheless, the price has not yet been able to develop an upward trend above this mark, near which strong resistance levels 63.60 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and 63.90 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from a level near the level of 27.10 to highs of October 2018 near the mark of 86.60 dollars per barrel) are located.
Currently, Brent crude is trading in the zone of these resistance levels, from which either a rebound or consolidation is possible. For further price movement in one direction or another, new drivers are needed. They may be trade negotiations between the US and China and the OPEC meeting in December.
At the same time, OPEC’s decision to reduce oil production was mainly taken into account in prices, the level of oil production in the United States remains high, and there is no tangible progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China. These factors indicate that further growth in oil prices will be limited.
On Friday, oil market participants will follow the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States to 674 units at the moment (from 800 units at the beginning of June and 742 units at the beginning of September). If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.
Nevertheless, to say that optimism of investors dominates the oil market is hardly appropriate. The global bearish trend in oil prices remains in force. Brent oil price decline into the zone below 61.80 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will mean the resumption of a global downtrend with support at 60.40 (May lows), 58.50, 56.90 (Fibonacci level 50%).
The first important signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of support levels 63.00 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 62.45 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
In an alternative scenario, the resumption of growth and the breakdown of the local resistance level of 64.00 will strengthen the bullish momentum and direct the price to resistance levels of 66.10, 67.50.
Further price increases are unlikely.
Support Levels: 63.60, 63.00, 62.45, 61.80, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
Resistance Levels: 64.00, 65.10, 67.50

Trading recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 64.30. Take-Profit 63.00, 62.45, 61.80, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
Buy Stop 64.30. Stop-Loss 62.90. Take-Profit 65.10, 67.00, 67.50


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: the euro is vulnerable against the dollar
11/25/2019
Last Friday, the publication of positive US macro data for November supported the dollar.
At the beginning of today's European session, DXY dollar index futures are trading at 98.19, 29 pips higher than the closing price last Thursday.
The growth of PMIs for purchasing managers for the manufacturing and service sectors, as well as the consumer sentiment index also triggered a decline in demand for defensive assets - gold and government bonds, increasing the tendency of investors to buy risky assets of the US stock market.
The final consumer sentiment index of the University of Michigan at the end of November amounted to 96.8 against the October level of 95.5, which is also higher than the forecast of 95.7.
American consumers positively assess the prospects for the US economy, which still demonstrates greater stability in the context of international trade conflicts than the economy of other US partner countries.
Due to concerns about the state of the Eurozone economy, the euro is unlikely to show significant growth against the US dollar in the near future.
Today, regarding the dollar and the euro, the publication of important macro statistics is not planned. This week, investors will follow the publication on Thursday and Friday of inflation indices in Germany and the Eurozone.
Meanwhile, EUR / USD continues to decline, trading below key resistance levels of 1.1125 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1170 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
A break into the zone below the local support level of 1.0995 (November lows) is likely to indicate a strengthening of the downward trend with targets at support levels of 1.0940, 1.0900. Any corrective growth of EUR / USD will be limited by resistance levels 1.1125, 1.1170. Long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains. Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900
Resistance Levels: 1.1053, 1.1060, 1.1110, 1.1125, 1.1175

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1070. Take-Profit 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900
Buy Stop 1.1070. Stop-Loss 1.1010. Take-Profit 1.1110, 1.1125, 1.1175



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
11/26/2019
AUD / USD remains in a long-term downtrend. Disappointing data from the Australian labor market, according to which unemployment rose in October by 0.1%, contributed to a sharp weakening of the Australian dollar and the fall of the pair AUD / USD.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the weekly and daily charts are on the side of sellers.
In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6670 (lows of 2019), 0.6600, 06570 (the lower line of the downward channel on the weekly chart).
The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
A signal for the development of an alternative scenario could be a breakdown of the resistance level 0.6802 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
However, the growth of AUD / USD will be limited by resistance levels of 0.6875 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.6920 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Despite the recent lower interest rates and lower income taxes, consumer confidence in Australia last week fell to its lowest level in more than four years. Consumers' assessment of the future prospects of the Australian economy is currently at the lowest level in the history of this survey.
This year, Australia's central bank lowered its key interest rate three times (to the current record low of 0.75%), and markets expect another cut in early 2020.
The next RBA meeting on monetary policy will be held next week. It will take place against the backdrop of rising unemployment (up to 5.3% in October), weak GDP growth and declining consumer confidence.
If the RBA decides to lower the rate already at this meeting, then AUD is likely to fall under mass sales.
RBA managing director Philip Lowe said today that if the key rate is lowered to 0.25%, the issue of quantitative easing will be considered.
"There may come a time when quantitative easing will be necessary to support our collective well-being, but that moment has not come yet, and I hope that will not", Lowe said.
“I hope that other options for state policy will also be included in the agenda”, he said.
Thus, we should expect further weakening of AUD and the fall of the pair AUD / USD.
Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6875, 0.6920

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market, Sell Limit 0.6800, 0.6820. Stop-Loss 0.6830. Take-Profit 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6770. Take-Profit 0.6870, 0.6900



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
11/27/2019
Against the background of increased expectations of investors in the soon conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China, the demand for protective assets, including gold, is declining.
According to reports received earlier this month from the Ministry of Commerce of China, if a “first phase” trade agreement is signed, the parties will cancel duties at the same time and in equal volumes.
This news triggered a sharp increase in stock indices and a drop in gold prices.
On Tuesday, investor optimism was reinforced by another report by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that the parties agreed to continue discussion of the remaining issues that need to be agreed upon to conclude a "first phase" deal.
At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, XAU / USD is trading below the important short-term resistance level of 1464.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of further decline, XAU / USD will go towards the support levels of 1440.00 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1420.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above these levels, a long-term bull trend remains.
Return to the area above the resistance levels of 1478.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1484.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00) will create conditions for further growth of XAU / USD.
Nevertheless, investors are cautious before Thanksgiving and before the publication of important macro data from the United States today (at 13:30, 14:45, 15:00 GMT), including data on orders for durable goods, the second estimate of GDP for 3- the first quarter and data on applications for unemployment benefits, data on personal income and expenses of Americans, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. At 19:00 (GMT) the Fed Beige Book will be published.
If the data indicate the stability of the US economy, the dollar will strengthen, and gold prices will come under pressure.
Conversely, weak macro data from the United States, as well as new difficulties in the negotiation process between US and Chinese trade representatives, could trigger a fall in stock indices and an increase in demand for gold.
The first signal to resume the long XAU / USD positions will be a breakdown of the resistance level of 1464.00.
Support Levels: 1440.00, 1420.00, 1380.00, 1368.00, 1310.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1464.00, 1478.00, 1484.00, 1497.00, 1520.00, 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1451.00. Stop-Loss 1465.00. Take-Profit 1440.00, 1420.00, 1380.00, 1368.00
Buy Stop 1465.00. Stop-Loss 1451.00. Take-Profit 1478.00, 1484.00, 1497.00, 1520.00, 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: in the last days of the month
11/28/2019
Today is a day off in the USA (Thanksgiving). US financial markets and banks will be closed, and on Friday, trading will end earlier. In this regard, trading volumes during the US trading session will be low.
Meanwhile, the US dollar remains positive. After the publication of a number of positive macro data from the United States on Wednesday, the DXY dollar index reached a local 6-week high near 98.37, while maintaining multi-month positive dynamics.
According to official data released on Wednesday, US GDP growth in the 3rd quarter was 2.1% (the initial estimate assumed US GDP growth in the 3rd quarter by 1.9%), mainly due to strong indicators of consumer spending. Rising wages, historically low unemployment and low interest rates in October supported consumer spending, which is about 2/3 of US GDP.
Speaking on Monday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that "this growth period has been going on for 11 years and is the longest in US history, so overall economic conditions can be called favorable".
The US economy in the current conditions looks more stable compared to other major economies in the world, which will help maintain the demand for US assets and the dollar.
Meanwhile, USD / CAD has been growing since the opening of today's trading day. At the beginning of the European session, USD / CAD is trading above the short-term support level 1.3275 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and the important support level 1.3235 (EMA200 on the daily chart), which speaks in favor of purchases of this currency pair.
Therefore, you should look for the opportunity to enter long positions, for example, when roll back (lower) to the support level of 1.3275. Above this level of support, long positions are preferred.
A breakdown of this level of support will be a signal for sales. In this case, the reduction targets will be the support levels 1.3200, 1.3138 (September lows), 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042.
Despite the optimism of Bank of Canada managers, many economists believe that the central bank should consider lowering interest rates to prevent the negative economic effects of ongoing trade conflicts.
The next meeting of the Bank of Canada will be held on December 4. If at this meeting, the Bank of Canada will signal its intention to lower the rate in the coming months, then the Canadian dollar may come under pressure, which may intensify amid falling oil prices.
Support Levels: 1.3275, 1.3235, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015
Resistance Levels: 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.3250. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3235, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015
Buy Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3250. Take-Profit 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Brent: Strong drivers are needed for price increases
11/29/2019
Expectations of a soon conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China contributed to higher prices for commodities, including oil. So, Brent crude oil has risen in price over the past 2 months by almost 6%, reaching $ 64.55 a barrel this week.
However, further price growth stopped. The price is trying to gain a foothold in the zone above the key resistance levels 63.70 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 63.90 (Fibonacci 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the mark of 86.60 dollars per barrel).
A breakdown of the local resistance level of 64.55 (monthly highs) will strengthen the bullish momentum and
will direct the price to resistance levels 65.10, 66.10, 67.50.
However, the global downtrend of the price is prevailing. Its further growth is unlikely without strong fundamental drivers.
A signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of support levels 63.00 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 63.35 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). The targets for further decline are located at the levels of 60.40 (May lows), 58.50, 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
Continued tensions in international trade relations, as well as significant oil reserves in the United States will put pressure on oil prices in the direction of their decline.
A stronger dollar is also putting pressure on oil prices. At the beginning of today's European session, DXY futures are trading near 98.32, 17 pips above the opening price last Monday, staying close to the highs of the last 7 weeks.
Support Levels: 63.35, 63.00, 62.30, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
Resistance Levels: 64.00, 64.55, 65.10, 67.50

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 64.60. Take-Profit 63.35, 63.00, 62.30, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
Buy Stop 64.60. Stop-Loss 63.30. Take-Profit 65.10, 67.00, 67.50



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com