Tifia Daily Market Analytics

AUD/USD: negative dynamics
21/04/2020
"The double blow to health care and the economy that led to the emergency we are experiencing now will cast a shadow over our economy for a long time", said Reserve Bank of Australia manager Philip Lowe on Tuesday. According to him, the country's GDP in the first half of the year will decrease by 10%, and unemployment will rise to 10% - a level that the country has not seen since the beginning of the 1990s.
Philip Lowe began his speech shortly after the minutes were published from the April meeting of the RBA.
As you know, in early April, the next regular meeting of the RBA was held, following which the bank management decided to keep the current monetary policy unchanged. The key interest rate of the RBA was previously lowered to a record low of 0.25%, and the target rate of return for 3-year government bonds was down to 0.25% in order to support businesses and Australian citizens amid the rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
After the performance of Philip Lowe and amid a landslide drop in oil prices and world stock indices, the Australian dollar is weakening today along with other commodity currencies.
At the same time, the US dollar continues to dominate the financial markets amid investors fleeing risk, acting as a protective asset.
On Tuesday, AUD / USD broke through the important short-term support level of 0.6313 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) and is developing a downward trend in the direction of support level 0.6272 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). A breakdown of this support level will increase the likelihood of a further decline in the pair and again make short positions relevant with targets at local support levels of 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510.
Below the resistance level of 0.6640 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails. For now, only short positions should be considered.
Support Levels: 0.6272, 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Resistance Levels: 0.6313, 0.6460, 0.6560, 0.6640

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6260. Stop-Loss 0.6350. Take-Profit 0.6100, 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Buy Stop 0.6350. Stop-Loss 0.6260. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6460, 0.6560, 0.6640


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USD/CAD: buying!
22/04/2020
The dollar is falling on Wednesday. The DXY dollar index is moving towards the opening price of yesterday's trading day at around 100.05.
Commodity currencies and stock indices also, despite the drop in oil prices, are growing in Wednesday. The USD / CAD pair, which is most sensitive to movements in the oil market, is trading at the beginning of today's European session near 1.4135, below the opening price of yesterday's trading day.
Nevertheless, the growth of the US dollar, which plays the role of a protective asset in the current situation, may resume at any moment, especially when another portion of negative information will be received regarding the reporting of American corporations, whose profit and capitalization had suffered significantly in recent months, as well as news regarding the ongoing coronavirus pandemics.
Regarding the prospects of the Canadian dollar and the pair USD / CAD, many observers and economists are inclined to further weaken the Canadian dollar and the growth of the pair USD / CAD.
Last week, according to the results of the next meeting, the Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged (at 0.25%), but announced its intention to start purchasing debt obligations of Canadian provinces and corporate bonds. "In the near future, the leaders of the (central bank) can hardly do anything else to mitigate this blow (in the economy)", said Bank of Canada manager Stephen Poloz at a press conference after a meeting last Wednesday.
According to the leaders of the Bank of Canada, in the 2nd quarter, the economic contraction could reach 15% -30%, which would be a record high.
Despite today's decline, the USD / CAD pair is developing upward, trading in upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, above the important short-term support levels of 1.4000 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) and 1.4090 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which says in favor of long positions and growth in the direction of resistance levels of 1.4600 (Fibonacci level of 0% and highs of the pair’s growth wave from the support level of 0.9700, which began in September 2012), 1.4665 (March and 17-year highs).
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of support levels 1.4090, 1.4000 USD / CAD will go to support levels 1.3860, 1.3900 (EMA50 on the daily chart). Above key support levels 1.3560 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.3500 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart)
a positive impulse prevails, making long positions preferable.
Support Levels: 1.4090, 1.4000, 1.3900, 1.3860, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3500, 1.3450
Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4272, 1.4350, 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.4080. Stop-Loss 1.4160. Take-Profit 1.4000, 1.3900, 1.3860, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3500, 1.3450
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 1.4080. Take-Profit 1.4200, 1.4272, 1.4350, 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700



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EUR/USD: towards "the south"
23/04/2020
Investors' attitude towards the prospects of European assets and the euro remains restrained negative after the publication of the Eurozone business activity indexes at the beginning of today's European session.
The Eurozone composite PMI (according to IHS Markit) in April reached a record low of 13.5 (with a forecast of 25.7 and values of 29.7 in March and 51.6 in February). The PMI index of business activity in the most important manufacturing sector of the Eurozone also in April was much worse than the forecast of 39.2 and the previous value of 44.5, amounting to 33.6. Values below 50 indicate a slowdown in activity.
Economists predict a significant weakening of business activity in the Eurozone and in the 2nd quarter, which may be the most severe fall in the entire history of observations, due to the fact that most of the European economy is likely to continue to be in quarantine mode to curb the spread of coronavirus in the coming weeks, and maybe months, if the pandemic situation does not begin to improve.
Today, investors will also pay attention to the publication of data from the US labor market, which can cause increased volatility in the quotes of the dollar and the pair EUR / USD, respectively.
At 12:30 (GMT) the US Department of Labor will publish weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the week of April 12-18. Their number is forecast to be 4.2 million (after 5.245 million applications in the previous reporting week).
However, the reaction of market participants to the publication of this report by the US Department of Labor can be completely unpredictable. But so far, the dollar continues to be in demand, including because of its role as a protective asset.
Thus, it is logical to expect a further decline in the EUR / USD pair, which is trading at the beginning of today's European session near 1.0760, 1.0780, in the zone below the important short-term resistance levels of 1.0925 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.0865 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart ), which speaks in favor of short positions.
Support Levels: 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Resistance Levels: 1.0865, 1.0925, 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1020, 1.1050, 1.1145

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.0870. Take-Profit 1.0700, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Buy Stop 1.0870. Stop-Loss 1.0790. Take-Profit 1.0925, 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1020, 1.1050, 1.1145


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

XAU/USD: long positions are preferred
24/04/2020
Last week, the price of gold rose to the next more than 7-year high near the mark of 1747.00 dollars per troy ounce. At the beginning of today's European session, gold is also trading near this mark, maintaining a positive trend. Investor caution is fueled by fears about the spread of coronavirus in the world.
Johns Hopkins University, which makes calculations based on summaries of US authorities, the World Health Organization and other official sources, indicates that the number of cases of coronavirus infection in the world as of April 24 reached 2,709,408.
Many economists expect US GDP to fall by 40% in the 2nd quarter, a drop of 45% in the Eurozone, 59% in the UK, and 35% in Japan.
These data indicate that the global economy is entering a recession. In this regard, demand for the dollar and for gold, as protective assets, will remain high for a long time to come.
Above the support level of 1532.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive dynamics of XAU / USD remains. Above the short-term support level 1698.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), it is necessary to give preference to long positions.
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the support level of 1698.00, XAU / USD may decline to the support levels of 1650.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1587.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline from September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00).
Nevertheless, in this situation and against the background of extra soft monetary policy of the world central banks, the demand for gold will remain, which speaks in favor of long positions in the XAU / USD pair.
Support Levels: 1698.00, 1650.00, 1587.00, 1565.00, 1555.00, 1532.00
Resistance Levels: 1747.00, 1795.00

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1695.00. Stop-Loss 1720.00. Take-Profit 1650.00, 1587.00, 1565.00, 1555.00, 1532.00
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 1695.00. Take-Profit 1747.00, 1795.00


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/JPY: the pair is prone to decline
27/04/2020
During today's meeting, the Bank of Japan kept the current rate on deposits at -0.1%, and the target level of yield on 10-year bonds - around 0%.
The bank also canceled the target level of purchases of government bonds (up to today it was 80 trillion yen per year) and promised to buy them in such volumes that will ensure a 10-year bond yield of about zero.
“Reducing rates remains one of the easing policies”, said Haruhiko Kuroda, head of the Bank of Japan, during a press conference, habitually adding that the bank “will further soften policy if necessary”.
In response to decisions of the Bank of Japan, the yen strengthened against the dollar. The Japanese Nikkei stock index also rose.
Later this week, Fed and ECB meetings will be held. The Fed decision on rates will be known on Wednesday (at 18:00 GMT). In the meantime, the dollar is falling amid increased risk appetite for investors.
USD / JPY remains under pressure, trading below the balance lines 109.25, 108.65, corresponding to the 200-period moving averages on the weekly and daily charts.
USD / JPY is also below the important short-term resistance levels of 108.10 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 107.67 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall of the pair from the level of 125.65, which began in June 2015). More distant reduction targets are 104.70 (2018 lows), 102.30, 101.20 (2020 lows).
In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the resistance level 108.10, USD / JPY will go towards the resistance levels of 108.65, 109.25, 110.15 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
But for now, short positions are recommended below the resistance level of 107.67.
Support Levels: 107.00, 106.50, 105.00, 104.70, 102.30, 101.20
Resistance Levels: 107.67, 108.10, 108.65, 109.25, 109.70, 110.15, 110.50

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 107.75. Stop Loss 106.90. Take-Profit 108.10, 108.65, 109.25, 109.70, 110.15
Sell Stop 106.90. Stop Loss 107.75. Take-Profit 106.50, 105.00, 104.70, 102.30, 101.20


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P 500: on the eve of the Fed meeting
28/04/2020
Investors' enthusiasm for the start of lifting restrictions on movement due to coronavirus in a number of countries contributes to the growth of global stock indices. So, S&P 500 develops upward dynamics in the direction of key resistance level 2952.0 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart, ЕМА50 on the weekly chart). At the same time, stabilization of the S&P 500 is likely near this level. Without additional incentive measures on the part of the Fed, it is unlikely to pass this level of resistance immediately.
Stock indices may continue to grow, and the dollar will decline even more if during the 2-day Fed meeting, which begins today, the leaders of the US central bank decide to expand economic stimulus in response to the crisis provoked by coronavirus. The Fed decision on rates will be published on Wednesday (at 18:00 GMT).
At the same time, it’s too early to relax. The peak of the coronavirus has not yet been passed. According to Johns Hopkins University, the number of cases of coronavirus in the world has already exceeded 3.04 million people. Medical experts warn that if restrictions and quarantine are removed too quickly, this could lead to another wave of the epidemic, which could make the global economy falling even deeper.
If, nevertheless, a breakdown of the resistance level 2952.0 takes place, then the next goal will be the resistance level 3020.0 (the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth since February 2016 and the level of 1807.0).
A breakdown of these two resistance levels 2952.0, 3020.0 will indicate a complete restoration of the long-term bullish trend of the S&P 500.
In an alternative scenario, a signal for sales may be a breakdown of the support level 2769.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Below the key resistance level 2952.0, however, the long-term negative dynamics of the S&P 500 prevails.
Support Levels: 2875.0, 2811.0, 2790.0, 2769.0, 2718.0, 2690.0, 2643.0, 2600.0, 2500.0, 2415.0, 2319.0, 2240.0, 2183.0
Resistance Levels: 2952.0, 3000.0, 3020.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2870.0. Stop-Loss 2970.0. Goals 2811.0, 2790.0, 2769.0, 2718.0, 2690.0, 2643.0, 2600.0, 2500.0, 2415.0, 2319.0, 2240.0, 2183.0
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 2870.0. Goals 2952.0, 3000.0, 3020.0, 3100.0, 3335.0


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: on the eve of the Fed and ECB meetings
29/04/2020
The attitude of investors towards the prospects of European assets and the euro remains restrained-negative. At the beginning of today's European session, EUR / USD is trading near 1.0840 mark, below the important short-term resistance level 1.0900 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Demand for the dollar as a defensive asset still remains, while the situation with coronavirus in the world still does not have a clear improvement trend, and disappointing macro data continues to come from the US and the Eurozone.
Investors do not expect from the planned two-day Fed meeting, which will end on Wednesday with the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of a decision on rates, something new or additional incentive measures.
The Fed has already done a lot to soften the business environment amid the coronavirus pandemic. The Fed will be interested of the press conference, which will begin at 18:30 (GMT). Volatility could rise sharply again in the financial market if Jerome Powell makes unexpected statements about the immediate prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.
At the same time, if the Fed is not expected to significantly change the current monetary policy at the moment, the ECB may greatly surprise the markets, if at the end of its meeting on Thursday it announces its intention to expand the quantitative easing program (QE), if not now, then in early June, when the next meeting of the ECB.
Thus, it is logical to expect a further decline in the EUR / USD pair. Below the key resistance levels 1.1050 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1010 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
The breakdown of the support level 1.0840 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will strengthen the negative dynamics of EUR / USD.
Support Levels: 1.0840, 1.0785, 1.0730, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Resistance Levels: 1.0865, 1.0900, 1.0980, 1.1010, 1.1020, 1.1050, 1.1145

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.0920. Take-Profit 1.0785, 1.0730, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Buy Stop 1.0920. Stop-Loss 1.0790. Take-Profit 1.0980, 1.1010, 1.1020, 1.1050, 1.1145


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: at a strong resistance level
30/04/2020
Next week (May 5), the next meeting of the RBA will be held. As you know, in early April, the regular meeting of the RBA was held, following which the bank management decided to keep the current monetary policy unchanged. The key interest rate of the RBA was kept at a record low level of 0.25%, and the target level of yield on 3-year government bonds was also left at 0.25%. The decision to lower the rate and determine the current target level of government bond yields was made at the previous unscheduled meeting of the RBA on March 19. RBA predicts a significant slowdown in inflation in the 2nd quarter.
The guidelines for the RBA in determining priorities in its monetary policy, in addition to GDP growth, are inflation and unemployment. At the same time, economists note that inflation in Australia may approach zero, as housing prices are falling, wage growth is slowing, and unemployment is growing rapidly.
Today, the AUD / USD pair is trading at a strong resistance level of 0.6560 (EMA144 on the daily chart), maintaining positive dynamics over the past few weeks.
In the event of a breakdown of this resistance level, it can still grow to key resistance levels of 0.6640 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.6700 (EMA50 on the weekly chart).
If the RBA next week reinforces incentive measures again, then the Australian dollar quotes may suffer, and the pair AUD / USD may decline. In this case, a signal for AUD / USD sales will be a breakdown of the short-term important support level of 0.6433 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). The breakdown of the support levels of 0.6332 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6272 (local lows) will confirm the resumption of the bearish trend of AUD / USD.
From the news for today, in addition to the results of the meeting and the ECB press conference, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data from the US labor market. It is expected that the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the week of April 24-30 was 3.5 million (after 4.43 million in the previous week). Under current conditions (the coronavirus pandemic and a sharp economic slowdown), the reaction of market participants to the publication of this report by the US Department of Labor can be completely unpredictable.
Support Levels: 0.6455, 0.6433, 0.6332, 0.6272, 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Resistance Levels: 0.6560, 0.6640, 0.6700

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6515. Stop-Loss 0.6575. Take-Profit 0.6455, 0.6433, 0.6332, 0.6272, 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Buy Stop 0.6575. Stop-Loss 0.6515. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6640, 0.6700, 0.6820



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com