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This is a discussion on Tifia Daily Market Analytics within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; S&P500: Current Dynamics and Recommendations 08/12/2019 In July, the S&P500 rose to record highs near 3028.0, which is about 22% ...

          
   
  1. #521
    Senior Member TifiaFX's Avatar
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    S&P500: Current Dynamics and Recommendations
    08/12/2019

    In July, the S&P500 rose to record highs near 3028.0, which is about 22% higher than the opening price at the beginning of the year.
    The growth of US stock indexes was contributed by the expectations of lower interest rates by the Fed and the positive macro statistics coming from the USA. However,
    investors' concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth and the aggravation of trade confrontation between the US and China caused a sharp increase in volatility in world stock markets and a drop in indices. After sharp fluctuations, all three leading US indices finished the week with a decline of about 1%.
    S&P500 completed last week at around 2918.0.
    "We are not ready to conclude an agreement, but we'll see how everything goes", Trump told reporters on Friday. "We'll see if China meets with us in September".
    During today's Asian session, the S&P500 and other major US stock indexes rose, but fell again at the beginning of the European session. Thus, S&P500 futures are trading at the beginning of the European session on Monday near the level of 2907.0, 14 points below the opening price today.
    The S&P500 futures are trading below resistance levels at 2944.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 2934.0, 2920.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
    Below the short-term resistance level of 2920.0, short positions with targets located near the support levels of 2845.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0) are preferable. Above these support levels, the S&P500 bullish trend remains.
    The breakdown of support levels 2845.0, 2865.0 can trigger a deeper decline to support levels 2765.0 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 2680.0 (Fibonacci 50%).
    You can return to shopping after fixing the S&P500 in the zone above the resistance level of 2944.0.
    Support levels: 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2765.0, 2730. 2680.0
    Resistance Levels: 2920.0, 2934.0, 2944.0, 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0

    Trading recommendations

    Sell by market. Stop-Loss 2945.0. Goals 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2800.0
    Buy Stop 2945.0. Stop-Loss 2910.0. Goals 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  2. #522
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    EUR/USD: what awaits Eurodollar
    08/13/2019

    After the ECB signaled in July that it was ready to soften its monetary policy, EUR / USD hit a new annual low near 1.1100, but then adjusted to current levels.
    Since the opening of today's trading day, the Eurodollar has moderately decreased, while continuing to trade in the range near the short-term support level of 1.1185 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and short-term resistance level of 1.1200 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
    Expectations of further easing of the monetary policy of the ECB put pressure on the euro and the pair EUR / USD. It is likely that at the ECB meeting on September 12 a whole package of measures will be taken, including a 0.25% reduction in the interest rate and a restart of the quantitative easing program worth 2.6 trillion euros.
    At the same time, despite Trump's criticism of the Fed and its monetary policy, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut, the dollar continues to be in demand among investors.
    Underestimated risks that the UK will leave the European Union on October 31 without any agreement on Brexit, political and economic differences within Eurozone, as well as the accelerating devaluation of national currencies in a number of countries (at the beginning of the month there are three central banks at once - India, Thailand, New Zealand - reduced interest rates), only add the negative in relation to the mood of the business.
    Investors are concerned about the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China (from September 1, the US is expected to introduce new 10% import duties on Chinese goods). On the other hand, the American economy looks more stable in comparison with other major world economies and continues to grow, which causes an influx of investment in American assets and the dollar.
    Below the resistance levels 1.1315 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist.
    An upward correction is also possible, but so far no higher than the resistance levels of 1.1245 (the upper line of the descending channel on the daily chart and the highs of August), 1.1270 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
    Support Levels: 1.1185, 1.1125, 1.1070, 1.1000
    Resistance Levels: 1.1200, 1.1245, 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1315

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1070, 1.1000
    Buy Stop 1.1250. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1315



  3. #523
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    AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
    08/14/2019

    As reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday, the wage index in the 2nd quarter grew by 0.6% and by 2.3% in annual terms. The forecast was + 0.5% and + 2.2%, respectively.
    The data were better than expected. However, this is not enough to accelerate inflation. RBA Governor Philip Lowe called slower wage growth and productivity a major economic challenge.
    Earlier this month, RB of Australia left the key interest rate at a record low of 1%, but gave a pessimistic forecast for the economy. RBA managing director Philip Lowe lowered the forecast for Australia's GDP growth in 2019 to 2.5% from 2.75% and added that unemployment is expected to drop to about 5% in the next two years. According to the RBA management, for the growth of salaries and acceleration of inflation to the target range, an unemployment rate of 4.5% or lower is required. Now unemployment is at the level of 5.2% and is gradually growing, but not decreasing, and the return of inflation to the middle of the target range of 2% -3% is not visible even on a distant horizon.
    "It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required to progress towards lowering unemployment and achieve steady progress towards the target inflation rate", Lowe said after an RBA meeting in August.
    On Thursday (01:30 GMT) data from the Australian labor market will be published. Most likely, in July unemployment remained unchanged at 5.2%.
    The expectation of further easing of the monetary policy of the RBA puts pressure on the AUD in the direction of its further weakening.
    Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened on Tuesday after the publication of data on consumer inflation in the United States, which turned out to be better than forecast, and after the White House announced that it would postpone the introduction of new tariffs on imports of some Chinese goods until December 15.
    At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, the pair AUD / USD is trading near the level of 0.6760. Negative dynamics prevails.
    Entry into short positions is allowed "by the market". A possible correctional increase to the resistance levels of 0.6795 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6830, 0.6865 (May lows), 0.6885 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will be an additional opportunity to resume sales of this currency pair.
    We can return to the consideration of long positions only after the growth of AUD / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6885 with targets located no higher than the key resistance level of 0.7050 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
    In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
    Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
    Resistance Levels: 0.6795, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6885, 0.7000, 0.7050

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6795, 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6840. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
    Buy Stop 0.6840. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit .6865, 0.6885, 0.7000, 0.7050


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  4. #524
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    NZD/USD: dynamics and recommendations
    08/15/2019

    Since the opening of today's trading day, the American dollar has been declining. At the beginning of today's European session, DXY dollar index futures are trading near 97.70, 12 pips below the opening price of today's trading day. Meanwhile, commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, also remain under pressure amid a worsening trade war between the US and China.
    New Zealand's export-oriented economy is extremely vulnerable amid escalating trade war between the US and China.
    Last week, the RBNZ cut the rate by 50 bp to 1.00%, explaining this decision by the worsening trade war between the US and China and the loss of momentum in the New Zealand economy.
    RBNZ leaders believe that wage growth remains weak. At the same time, inflationary expectations are falling, and low levels of business confidence indicate a slowdown in hiring and wage growth.
    There is growing concern among participants in international financial markets that the slowdown in economic growth and the threat of recession will spread to the whole world, including China, the United States, and their trade and economic partners. It can be assumed that the global cycle of rate cuts will gain momentum in the next few months.
    In the current situation, further easing of the monetary policy of the RB of New Zealand should be expected, which is a strong negative factor for NZD.
    Currently, NZD / USD is trading near the level and the local support level of 0.6430 (October 2018 lows).
    A breakdown of this level will provoke a further decrease in NZD / USD with targets at support levels of 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and minimums of the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820).
    Short positions are preferable, unless, of course, the Fed also begins to aggressively lower the interest rate amid ongoing events in the financial markets.
    Below the resistance level of 0.6680 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the bearish trend NZD / USD prevails.
    Support Levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
    Resistance Levels: 0.6480, 0.6570, 0.6635, 0.6680, 0.6700, 0.6790

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
    Buy Stop 0.6510. Stop-Loss 0.6460. Take-Profit 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6680



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  5. #525
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    EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
    08/16/2019

    With the opening of today's trading day, Eurodollar is again declining. Market participants are preparing for the next ECB meeting in September and new stimulus measures by the European Central Bank.
    According to Olli Rehn, member of the ECB Governing Council, the European Central Bank at its meeting in September will announce a substantial stimulus package that will exceed investor expectations.
    The ECB is likely to announce a 0.1% reduction in the key interest rate, which is now -0.4%, as well as an allocation of about 50 billion euros per month for additional bond purchases under the quantitative easing program.
    Published disappointing economic data from China and Germany this week, as well as positive macro data from the United States, made market participants even more doubt the prospects for global economic growth, and also again updated the attractiveness of American assets and a more stable state of the US economy.
    According to official data released on Thursday, US retail sales in July rose 0.7% (forecast was + 0.3%).
    Retail sales data are encouraging regarding the US economy, that remains demand for US assets and the dollar.
    Today (at 14:00 GMT) the University of Michigan consumer confidence index (preliminary release for August) will be published, which reflects the confidence of American consumers in the country's economic development. It is expected that this indicator will come out in August with a value of 97.7 (against 98.4 in July), which could negatively affect the dollar (in the short term) due to a relative decrease in the indicator. Data better than expected will certainly support the dollar, and will put additional pressure on EUR / USD.
    Below the resistance levels of 1.1305 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist. In the current situation, short positions look relevant and safer, and the reduction targets are located at support levels 1.1000, 1.0000.
    You can return to purchases as part of the corrective growth of EUR / USD only after fixing the price in the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.1160 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
    Support Levels: 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
    Resistance Levels: 1.1125, 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1130. Take-Profit 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
    Buy Stop 1.1130. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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