Tifia Daily Market Analytics

S&P500: Current Dynamics and Recommendations
08/12/2019
In July, the S&P500 rose to record highs near 3028.0, which is about 22% higher than the opening price at the beginning of the year.
The growth of US stock indexes was contributed by the expectations of lower interest rates by the Fed and the positive macro statistics coming from the USA. However,
investors' concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth and the aggravation of trade confrontation between the US and China caused a sharp increase in volatility in world stock markets and a drop in indices. After sharp fluctuations, all three leading US indices finished the week with a decline of about 1%.
S&P500 completed last week at around 2918.0.
"We are not ready to conclude an agreement, but we'll see how everything goes", Trump told reporters on Friday. "We'll see if China meets with us in September".
During today's Asian session, the S&P500 and other major US stock indexes rose, but fell again at the beginning of the European session. Thus, S&P500 futures are trading at the beginning of the European session on Monday near the level of 2907.0, 14 points below the opening price today.
The S&P500 futures are trading below resistance levels at 2944.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 2934.0, 2920.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Below the short-term resistance level of 2920.0, short positions with targets located near the support levels of 2845.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0) are preferable. Above these support levels, the S&P500 bullish trend remains.
The breakdown of support levels 2845.0, 2865.0 can trigger a deeper decline to support levels 2765.0 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 2680.0 (Fibonacci 50%).
You can return to shopping after fixing the S&P500 in the zone above the resistance level of 2944.0.
Support levels: 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2765.0, 2730. 2680.0
Resistance Levels: 2920.0, 2934.0, 2944.0, 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0

Trading recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 2945.0. Goals 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2800.0
Buy Stop 2945.0. Stop-Loss 2910.0. Goals 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: what awaits Eurodollar
08/13/2019
After the ECB signaled in July that it was ready to soften its monetary policy, EUR / USD hit a new annual low near 1.1100, but then adjusted to current levels.
Since the opening of today's trading day, the Eurodollar has moderately decreased, while continuing to trade in the range near the short-term support level of 1.1185 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and short-term resistance level of 1.1200 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Expectations of further easing of the monetary policy of the ECB put pressure on the euro and the pair EUR / USD. It is likely that at the ECB meeting on September 12 a whole package of measures will be taken, including a 0.25% reduction in the interest rate and a restart of the quantitative easing program worth 2.6 trillion euros.
At the same time, despite Trump's criticism of the Fed and its monetary policy, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut, the dollar continues to be in demand among investors.
Underestimated risks that the UK will leave the European Union on October 31 without any agreement on Brexit, political and economic differences within Eurozone, as well as the accelerating devaluation of national currencies in a number of countries (at the beginning of the month there are three central banks at once - India, Thailand, New Zealand - reduced interest rates), only add the negative in relation to the mood of the business.
Investors are concerned about the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China (from September 1, the US is expected to introduce new 10% import duties on Chinese goods). On the other hand, the American economy looks more stable in comparison with other major world economies and continues to grow, which causes an influx of investment in American assets and the dollar.
Below the resistance levels 1.1315 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist.
An upward correction is also possible, but so far no higher than the resistance levels of 1.1245 (the upper line of the descending channel on the daily chart and the highs of August), 1.1270 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.1185, 1.1125, 1.1070, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1200, 1.1245, 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1315

Trading Scenarios
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1070, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1250. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1315

AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
08/14/2019
As reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday, the wage index in the 2nd quarter grew by 0.6% and by 2.3% in annual terms. The forecast was + 0.5% and + 2.2%, respectively.
The data were better than expected. However, this is not enough to accelerate inflation. RBA Governor Philip Lowe called slower wage growth and productivity a major economic challenge.
Earlier this month, RB of Australia left the key interest rate at a record low of 1%, but gave a pessimistic forecast for the economy. RBA managing director Philip Lowe lowered the forecast for Australia's GDP growth in 2019 to 2.5% from 2.75% and added that unemployment is expected to drop to about 5% in the next two years. According to the RBA management, for the growth of salaries and acceleration of inflation to the target range, an unemployment rate of 4.5% or lower is required. Now unemployment is at the level of 5.2% and is gradually growing, but not decreasing, and the return of inflation to the middle of the target range of 2% -3% is not visible even on a distant horizon.
"It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required to progress towards lowering unemployment and achieve steady progress towards the target inflation rate", Lowe said after an RBA meeting in August.
On Thursday (01:30 GMT) data from the Australian labor market will be published. Most likely, in July unemployment remained unchanged at 5.2%.
The expectation of further easing of the monetary policy of the RBA puts pressure on the AUD in the direction of its further weakening.
Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened on Tuesday after the publication of data on consumer inflation in the United States, which turned out to be better than forecast, and after the White House announced that it would postpone the introduction of new tariffs on imports of some Chinese goods until December 15.
At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, the pair AUD / USD is trading near the level of 0.6760. Negative dynamics prevails.
Entry into short positions is allowed "by the market". A possible correctional increase to the resistance levels of 0.6795 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6830, 0.6865 (May lows), 0.6885 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will be an additional opportunity to resume sales of this currency pair.
We can return to the consideration of long positions only after the growth of AUD / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6885 with targets located no higher than the key resistance level of 0.7050 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6795, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6885, 0.7000, 0.7050

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6795, 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6840. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6840. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit .6865, 0.6885, 0.7000, 0.7050


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: dynamics and recommendations
08/15/2019
Since the opening of today's trading day, the American dollar has been declining. At the beginning of today's European session, DXY dollar index futures are trading near 97.70, 12 pips below the opening price of today's trading day. Meanwhile, commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, also remain under pressure amid a worsening trade war between the US and China.
New Zealand's export-oriented economy is extremely vulnerable amid escalating trade war between the US and China.
Last week, the RBNZ cut the rate by 50 bp to 1.00%, explaining this decision by the worsening trade war between the US and China and the loss of momentum in the New Zealand economy.
RBNZ leaders believe that wage growth remains weak. At the same time, inflationary expectations are falling, and low levels of business confidence indicate a slowdown in hiring and wage growth.
There is growing concern among participants in international financial markets that the slowdown in economic growth and the threat of recession will spread to the whole world, including China, the United States, and their trade and economic partners. It can be assumed that the global cycle of rate cuts will gain momentum in the next few months.
In the current situation, further easing of the monetary policy of the RB of New Zealand should be expected, which is a strong negative factor for NZD.
Currently, NZD / USD is trading near the level and the local support level of 0.6430 (October 2018 lows).
A breakdown of this level will provoke a further decrease in NZD / USD with targets at support levels of 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and minimums of the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820).
Short positions are preferable, unless, of course, the Fed also begins to aggressively lower the interest rate amid ongoing events in the financial markets.
Below the resistance level of 0.6680 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the bearish trend NZD / USD prevails.
Support Levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6480, 0.6570, 0.6635, 0.6680, 0.6700, 0.6790

Trading Scenarios
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6510. Stop-Loss 0.6460. Take-Profit 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6680



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
08/16/2019
With the opening of today's trading day, Eurodollar is again declining. Market participants are preparing for the next ECB meeting in September and new stimulus measures by the European Central Bank.
According to Olli Rehn, member of the ECB Governing Council, the European Central Bank at its meeting in September will announce a substantial stimulus package that will exceed investor expectations.
The ECB is likely to announce a 0.1% reduction in the key interest rate, which is now -0.4%, as well as an allocation of about 50 billion euros per month for additional bond purchases under the quantitative easing program.
Published disappointing economic data from China and Germany this week, as well as positive macro data from the United States, made market participants even more doubt the prospects for global economic growth, and also again updated the attractiveness of American assets and a more stable state of the US economy.
According to official data released on Thursday, US retail sales in July rose 0.7% (forecast was + 0.3%).
Retail sales data are encouraging regarding the US economy, that remains demand for US assets and the dollar.
Today (at 14:00 GMT) the University of Michigan consumer confidence index (preliminary release for August) will be published, which reflects the confidence of American consumers in the country's economic development. It is expected that this indicator will come out in August with a value of 97.7 (against 98.4 in July), which could negatively affect the dollar (in the short term) due to a relative decrease in the indicator. Data better than expected will certainly support the dollar, and will put additional pressure on EUR / USD.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1305 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist. In the current situation, short positions look relevant and safer, and the reduction targets are located at support levels 1.1000, 1.0000.
You can return to purchases as part of the corrective growth of EUR / USD only after fixing the price in the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.1160 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
Resistance Levels: 1.1125, 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1130. Take-Profit 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
Buy Stop 1.1130. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P500: Current Dynamics and Recommendations
Expectations of a softening of the monetary policy of the Fed and positive macro statistics coming from the United States, contributed to the growth of major US stock indexes last month to new heights.
The S&P500 index updated a record high near 3028.0, however, subsequently collapsed amid Trump's threats to introduce new duties on Chinese goods from September 1.
S&P500 last week again tested the key support level of 2848.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), dropping to around 2815.0.
Nevertheless, investors are gradually becoming more active after recent events related to the aggravation of the trade conflict between the USA and China.
At the beginning of the new week, gold quotes and yield on US government bonds are declining.
Investors are encouraged by the prospect of new incentive measures by the Central Banks in several countries with the largest economies.
Last week, the White House administration decided to postpone plans to introduce a new 10% duty on some Chinese goods worth $ 156 billion, which was due to take effect on September 1. In addition, the White House said that they are preparing the next round of negotiations.
Since the opening of today's trading day, the S&P500 has been growing, and for the third day in a row.
Above the support levels of 2848.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0), the S&P500 long-term bullish trend remains.
After the breakdown of the resistance level of 2927.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the S&P500 will continue to move towards recent highs near 3028.0.
Support Levels: 2900.0, 2892.0, 2865.0, 2848.0, 2765.0, 2730. 2680.0
Resistance Levels: 2927.0, 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2888.0. Stop-Loss 2929.0. Goals 2865.0, 2848.0
Buy Stop 2929.0. Stop-Loss 2888.0. Goals 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: downward trend prevails
08/20/2019
Amid the risks to the British economy, the GBP / USD resumed falling due to the increased likelihood of a “hard” Brexit. Economists and government officials warn that a tough Brexit will negatively impact the economy.
Boris Johnson, who succeeded Theresa May as a prime minister, said he was ready for a "hard" Brexit. On October 31, Great Britain must finally withdraw from the EU, even if no agreement is reached between the parties. In his view, "the exit agreement is dead and should be canceled, but there is the possibility of a new deal".
Boris Johnson is scheduled to meet with EU leaders this week. Probably, following the results of these meetings, new negative news for the pound will appear. The UK government reiterates its intention to withdraw the country from the bloc by October 31, and the EU does not intend to revise the earlier exit agreement.
Labor leader Jeremy Corbin has called on various parties to vote no confidence in Prime Minister Boris Johnson in order to remove him from his post and make Brexit possible to a later date.
Nevertheless, the efforts of Jeremy Corbin to prevent a hard Brexit so far have little effect on the dynamics of the pound. Investors are preparing for the worst scenario.
Long-term negative dynamics prevail. The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of a correction to the GBP / USD decline in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
We can return to the consideration of long positions only after the pair will grow into the zone above the resistance level of 1.2280 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart and the upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart).
However, growth above the local resistance levels of 1.2480, 1.2530 is unlikely. In the current situation, so far only short positions on the GBP / USD should be considered.
Support Levels: 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2120, 1.2210, 1.2280, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2740

Trading Scenarios
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.2180. Take-Profit 1.2000, 1.1900
Buy Stop 1.2180. Stop-Loss 1.2080. Take-Profit 1.2210, 1.2280, 1.2480, 1.2530



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: positive dynamics continues
08/21/2019
Current Dynamics
On Wednesday (at 18:00 GMT) the minutes of the July meeting of the Fed will be published, which may indicate a further path for the development of monetary policy in the United States. Investors expect from the Fed additional signals regarding the prospects of monetary policy. Many economists and market participants expect that Fed rates by the end of the year will be below the current level of 2.25%. Today it is the highest rate among the 8 largest world central banks.
Second on this list is the Bank of Canada. In July, the Bank of Canada left the target value of the one-day interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
The next meeting of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy is scheduled for September 4. Market participants will pay attention to the publication, on Wednesday at 12:30 (GMT), of the inflationary consumer price indices in Canada, which reflect the dynamics of retail prices in the corresponding basket of goods and services. The target inflation rate for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1% -3%. The increase in CPI is a harbinger of a rate increase and a positive factor for CAD. If the data for July is worse than the previous values, then this will negatively affect CAD. Data is better than expected and above the previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar. In this case, USD / CAD will decline.

At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, the USD / CAD pair is trading at 1.3300,
near the short-term support level of 1.3284 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
A breakdown of this level will provoke a further decrease in the framework of the downward correction with targets at support levels 1.3245, 1.3230 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of these levels will trigger a further decline in the medium-term bearish trend with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2880 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Above the key support level of 1.3245 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive dynamics of USD / CAD prevails. Long positions with targets at resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and the level of 0.9700), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (maximums of the year) are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.3284, 1.3245, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880
Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3275. Stop-Loss 1.3350. Take-Profit 1.3245, 1.3230
Buy Stop 1.3350. Stop-Loss 1.3275. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: negative dynamics prevail
08/22/2019
Expectations of further easing of the monetary policy of the ECB put pressure on the euro and the pair EUR / USD. Eurodollar strengthened at the beginning of today's European session after the publication of positive macro statistics from the Eurozone.
The preliminary German manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in August was 43.6 (against the forecast of 43.0 and 43.2 in July). A similar index in France was also better than forecast (51.0 against the forecast of 49.5 and 49.7 in July).
The pair EUR / USD reached an intraday maximum near 1.1113, but then fell again, moving to negative territory.
Despite the fact that the data were better than predicted, the German economy in August continues to slow down. "Despite some improvement, production data did not grow enough to avert the threat of another small drop in GDP in the 3rd quarter, especially given the deterioration of leading indicators", IHS Markit said.
In the current situation, short positions are preferred, and the reduction targets are located at support levels of 1.1000, 1.0000.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1300 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist.
Support Levels: 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
Resistance Levels: 1.1117, 1.1165, 1.1185, 1.1245, 1.1285, 1.1300

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
Buy Stop 1.1125. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1165, 1.1185



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: short positions are still preferred
08/23/2019
Statements by Fed Chancellor Angela Merkel that the EU and the UK could come to an agreement on Brexit by October 31 have caused the pound to strengthen and the GBP / USD pair to rise to 1.2273, which corresponds to a 3-week high.
However, on Friday, the decline in the pound and GBP / USD pair resumed. Investors are still betting on the further weakening of the pound, since the risks of the “hard” Brexit remain.
“We are ready” for the hard Brexit scenario, French President Macron reiterated, while Boris Johnson said that Britain is also intensely preparing to leave the EU without any agreement.
Meanwhile, investors expect the beginning (at 14:00 GMT) of the speech of the head of the Fed Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole. Market participants want to understand the Fed's future plans for monetary policy.
Several Fed leaders, as follows from the minutes of the July 30-31 meeting, believe that rates should be left unchanged because "the real economy remains in good shape".
Despite conflicting signals from the Fed management, many market participants still expect one or two more Fed rate cuts this year, and the first reduction is already at the Fed meeting on September 17-18.
The long-term negative dynamics of GBP / USD prevails. In case of breakdown of the short-term support level 1.2150 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) GBP / USD will go towards the support level 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the GBP / USD pair decline in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level 1.7200).
Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2265, 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730

Trading Scenarios
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.2280. Take-Profit 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2280. Stop-Loss 1.2190. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com