Tifia Daily Market Analytics

EUR/USD: in financial markets flat
14/04/2017
Current dynamics
In connection with the Easter holidays today in financial markets flat. Trades on European and American trading floors are not held. Trading volumes are low.
After a sharp decline yesterday, the dollar was able to recover in the pair EUR / USD. After Wednesday afternoon at the end of the trading day, Donald Trump said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that the dollar is becoming "too strong," and American goods are "very, very difficult to compete" in a situation where "other countries reduce the value of their currencies" , the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market.
Investors in the current situation prefer to withdraw their funds into safe assets, such as government bonds, yen, and gold. So, against the background of increased purchases, the yield of US 10-year government bonds fell to 2.237% on Thursday, the lowest level since November 16.
The alarming geopolitical situation in the world is also not conducive to the purchase of risky assets. The euro is also under pressure on the background of the pre-election race in France. If the victory is won by political leaders opposing the euro integration, then, still not recovering from Brexit, the euro can get another strong blow to its positions in the foreign exchange market. Thus, the EUR / USD pair has its own scenario at the moment.
In general, recently, against the background of an abundance of various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, there is a multidirectional dynamics of the dollar and uncertainty of investors. This, again, increases the demand for safe haven assets. Gold has been growing in price since the middle of last month and is already the fifth consecutive session, updating annual price highs.
Flat in the financial markets can last until Tuesday. Nevertheless, you need to be prepared for unexpected price emissions, and, in any direction against the backdrop of low trading volumes.
Especially, it can happen during the news publication period. We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 15:30 (GMT + 3) will be published inflationary consumer price indices and retail sales in the US for March. Strong data will help strengthen the dollar, and sharply. Weak data can contribute to an equally active decline in the dollar. By the end of the trading day, the dollar and the EUR / USD pair are likely to return to the levels of today's opening.

Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart of the pair EUR / USD, a tapering triangle formed. The upper line of the triangle is currently near the level of 1.0795 and roughly corresponds to the 200-period moving average on the daily chart. The lower line of the tapering triangle corresponds to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart, passing near the level of 1.0580. The tapering triangle is a trend continuation figure. And since the downtrend prevails, it is more likely to break the lower boundary of the triangle (level 1.0580), followed by a decrease in the EUR / USD pair.
However, until this moment, the pair EUR / USD can still be repeatedly adjusted and "go down" to the upper limit of the triangle and the level of 1.0795. And instead of the expected breakdown of the level of 1.0580, rebound and growth may follow. So far, the negative dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is prevailing, while it is below the short-term resistance levels 1.0638, 1.0668 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts).
In the case of consolidating a pair above the level of 1.0668, it is highly probable that it will continue to increase to resistance levels 1.0735 (EMA144), 1.0795 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The probability of such a scenario is signaled by the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which turned on long positions on the 4-hour and daily charts.
If the negative background is maintained against the dollar, then the probability of the EUR / USD pair strengthening scenario will increase.
And, conversely, as geopolitical tension decreases, investors' attention will again switch to positive macroeconomic indicators from the US. In this case, the dollar's growth will resume, and the pair EUR / USD will again be under pressure and will finally break through the support level of 1.0580.
In case of further reduction, the targets will be the levels of 1.0530, 1.0500, and 1.0350. Long positions can be considered when returning a pair above the level of 1.0668.

Support levels: 1.0580, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0485
Resistance levels: 1.0638, 1.0668, 1.0690, 1.0735, 1.0795

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.0595. Stop-Loss. Objectives 1.0580, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0485
Buy Stop 1.0645. Stop-Loss 1.0595. Objectives 1.0668, 1.0690, 1.0735, 1.0795

AUD/USD: data on China supported the Australian dollar_17/04/2017

Current dynamics
According to data published this morning, China's industrial production in March rose by 7.6% yoy (the previous value of 6.3%), retail sales in China in March grew by 10.9% in annual terms (the previous value of + 9.5%), China's GDP in the 1st quarter grew by 6.9% in annual terms (the previous value + 6.8%). Strong data on China contributed to the strengthening of the Australian dollar. China is the largest trade and economic partner and buyer of primary commodities in Australia, primarily coal, iron ore, liquefied gas. Therefore, strong macroeconomic indicators from China have a positive impact on the quotes of the Australian currency.
At the same time, the US dollar continues to win back weak data on retail sales in the US for March, which was published on Friday in closed trading on European and American exchanges. Retail sales in the US in March declined for the second month in a row, with a two-month dynamics was the worst for more than 2 years. The basic consumer price index also fell, which occurred for the first time since January 2010.
The weakening of inflationary pressures, after Donald Trump's negative comments on a strong dollar, can significantly reduce the enthusiasm of investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar. The rate of inflation, along with data on GDP and the labor market in the US are key factors for the Fed in terms of further interest rate increases.
Slowing down the pace of inflation could force the Fed to reconsider its tough stance on US monetary policy plans.
Tomorrow at 01:30 (GMT) the protocol will be published from the last April meeting of the RBA on Monetary Policy. As you know, at the beginning of the month the RBA kept the current interest rate at the same level of 1.5%. The fall in commodity prices in recent years, a fairly high level of unemployment in the country (the last 10 years, unemployment is close to 6.0%), a weak increase in wages of employees, which does not contribute to the growth of consumer spending, as well as weak, according to the RBA, GDP growth - these are the main risks for the Australian economy.
Most likely, the RBA protocol will become aware of the intention to continue to maintain a soft monetary policy in Australia.
If the protocols contain harsh rhetoric about monetary policy in the country, then the Australian dollar can be strengthened in the currency market at once and fairly sharply.

Support and resistance levels
On the general weakening of the US dollar, the AUD / USD pair was able to grow and gain a foothold above the key levels of 0.7535 (EMA200), 0.7555 (EMA144 on the daily chart). At the moment, the pair AUD / USD is at a strong resistance level of 0.7590 (EMA50 on the day, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic draw a contradictory picture. If the indicators on the weekly chart are on the side of the sellers, then on the 4-hour and daily charts the indicators are turned to long positions.
The current level of 0.7590 is the key for guiding the further movement of the AUD / USD pair. In case of rebound from the level of 0.7590 and return below the short-term support level of 0.7550 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the further decline of the AUD / USD pair is likely.
The fall in the pair AUD / USD under the level of 0.7535 will return it to a downtrend.
An alternative scenario is associated with a further weakening of the US dollar and breakdown of the resistance level at 0.7590. If this scenario is implemented, the pair AUD / USD with targets 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 is likely to grow (Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the fall wave of the pair from July 2014 and EMA144 on the weekly chart).
The medium-term positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair may remain as long as the pair is above the support level of 0.7535.
Support levels: 0.7555, 0.7535, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7590, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7575. Stop-Loss 0.7610. Take-Profit 0.7555, 0.7535, 0.7460, 0.7400
Buy Stop 0.7610. Stop-Loss 0.7575. Take-Profit 0.7635, 0.7650, 0.7680, 0.7740, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840

Brent: prices are falling again_18/04/2017
Current dynamics
After the Easter weekend, oil prices are declining for the second consecutive day. Investors are trying to assess the strong oil demand in China, on the one hand, and the increase in oil production in the US, on the other hand. In China, there is a higher growth of the national economy in the 1st quarter. It is likely that the impetus for growth in the PRC will remain at least in the first half of this year. Against this background, oil imports to the PRC in March reached a record high.
After the US Energy Ministry reported that the production of shale oil in the seven oil-rich regions of the country could grow by another 2.5% per day in May, compared with the forecast, oil prices fell by about 1% on Monday. If this happens, the monthly increase will be the strongest in two years.
Many analysts of the oil market believe that in the next two years the production of shale oil in the US may exceed forecasts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil production in the US by the end of this year will grow by 680,000 barrels per day compared to the end of 2016. Oil production outside OPEC this year could thus increase by 485,000 barrels per day.
The next meeting of the cartel, which may decide to extend the deal to reduce oil production, will be held on May 25. If hopes do not materialize, oil quotes may fall sharply.
Today at 20:30 (GMT), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its report on changes in oil reserves in the US over the past week. And on Wednesday at 14:30 the Ministry of Energy of the United States publishes a weekly report on oil and petroleum products in the US storage. Reduction of reserves favorably affects oil prices, and vice versa. The growth of stocks puts pressure on oil prices.

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of the current week, the price of oil is declining. During the European session, the price reached a short-term support level of 55.20 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
If the decline continues, the price for Brent crude will reach support level 54.28 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart).
With further decrease, the targets will be support levels of 53.00 (June and October highs), 52.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70. In the case of a confirmed breakdown of the support level of 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and fixing below the level of 50.00, the upward trend in the price for Brent crude oil will be canceled.
However, from the current level of 55.20 it is also highly probable that there will be a retreat and a resumption of growth.
Updating the monthly highs near the 56.70 mark will indicate a further increase in the price of Brent crude oil.
Support levels: 55.20, 54.28, 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70
Levels of resistance: 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 54.85. Stop-Loss 55.60. Take-Profit 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70
Buy Stop 55.60. Stop-Loss 54.85. Take-Profit 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

GBP/USD: Theresa May's decision has crumbled European stock markets _19/04/2017

Current dynamics
After yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections, the British stock market collapsed. Following the index FTSE100, which lost almost 2.9%, followed all the European major stock indexes. Sale on the stock markets of the UK and Europe caused a sharp strengthening of the pound and the euro. The pair GBP / USD rose yesterday almost by 350 points, to the level of 1.2900, however, to the close of yesterday's trading day fell to the level of 1.2840.
The pound grew throughout the currency market, Investors expect that early general elections in the UK will allow Prime Minister Theresa May to consolidate the dominant position of the Conservative Party in parliament on the eve of the June elections in order to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If the Conservative Party has more seats in the parliament, this will neutralize the influence of supporters of the tough scenario Brexit. Then the pound can get even stronger. At its last meeting, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, inflation in February reached a maximum in more than three years amid a sharp weakening of the pound (more than 20%) after the referendum for Britain's exit from the EU. Recent positive macroeconomic data from the UK, as well as sharply increased inflation in the country, suggest that the Bank of England may return to the issue of raising the interest rate in the UK. And this is a positive factor for the pound.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication at 18:00 (GMT) of the Fed's economic review (Beige Book), which examines the current situation in the US economy. Optimistic views of economists, reflected in the review, will help strengthen the US dollar, and pessimistic - weaken the USD.

Support and resistance levels
Yesterday, after Theresa May announced her decision, the pound and GBP / USD pair rose sharply. The pair GBP / USD broke through an important resistance level of 1.2770 (EMA200 on the day market).
At the same time, the US dollar regains its position in the foreign exchange market. In the GBP / USD pair, correction may also begin. The immediate goal of the decline in this case will be the level of 1.2770.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts were deployed to short positions.
The reverse scenario will be associated with the further growth of the GBP / USD pair in case of consolidation above the current high near the 1.2860 mark.
Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD prevails below the level of 1.2770. Only in the case of consolidation above the level of 1.2900 (yesterday's highs) can we consider the long positions for the pair GBP / USD.
Support levels: 1.2770, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2905, 1.3000, 1.3350

Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2865. Take-Profit 1.2770, 1.2590, 1.2485
Buy Stop 1.2860. Stop-Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2905, 1.3000, 1.3100

XAU/USD: The dollar is in no rush to take positions
20/04/2017
Current Dynamics
While the euro and the pound are growing again in the foreign exchange market, the dollar is in no rush to retreat against the yen and gold, which are asset-seekers. So, with the opening of today's trading day after the active decline in the day before, the pair XAU / USD is trading in a narrow range near the level of 1276.00 dollars per troy ounce. If the pound and the euro are moving at the moment in the foreign exchange market according to their scenario, the precious metals and, in particular, gold, after reaching the local annual highs at the beginning of this week, stopped rising.
If the elections in France are completed safely for the euro, i.e. If candidates from the extreme left and extreme right do not win, then the situation in the financial markets will calm down a little. The threat of a sovereign default of France and its withdrawal from the EU will be lifted.
Nevertheless, while the uncertainty with the elections in France exists, as well as the threat of sales of France's sovereign debt of about 1 trillion euros, gold will not be cheaper, despite the Fed's plans to tighten monetary policy and reduce its budget.
Boston Federal Reserve Bank manager Eric Rosengren said on Wednesday that the Fed should begin the process of reducing its asset portfolio "the sooner, the better." This will allow the Fed to raise short-term interest rates without harm to the economy, according to Rosengren. He also noted that the interest rate should be the "main mechanism" affecting the state of the US economy. Thus, the Fed continues to receive signals for a gradual tightening of monetary policy in the US.
Gold is cheaper in the situation of an increase in the interest rate in the US, t. It is difficult for him to compete with interest-bearing assets. The cost of its acquisition and storage with a tightening of monetary policy is growing.
The restraining factor from the decline in the price of gold is still geopolitical instability in the world and the position of US President Donald Trump, who repeatedly spoke in favor of a cheap dollar. In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, he said that the dollar "is becoming too strong" for US goods to compete successfully in the market.
Of the expected news for today, it is worth paying attention to data from the United States. At 12:30 (GMT), a weekly report from the US Department of Labor on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits is published. According to the forecast, the number of benefits is expected to increase to 242,000 (against 234,000 last week). If the data turn out to be worse, it will negatively affect the dollar, and vice versa, a low result will strengthen the dollar.
During the period from 15:30 to 17:30, several key figures of the world financial market, Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney and US Treasury Secretary Stephen Munchin are expected to perform. In this period of time, a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market, including XAU / USD.

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the pair XAU / USD is trading near support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and EMA144 on the 1-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts are deployed to short positions.
In case of breakdown of support levels 1277.00, 1274.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline in the pair XAU / USD will accelerate. The immediate targets will be support levels 1260.00 (February and March highs), 1253.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50.0%). Fixing of XAU/USD below the levels of 1235.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1220.00 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will cancel the uptrend.
Nevertheless, while the pair XAU / USD is above the support level of 1248.00, it keeps positive dynamics. The closest target in the case of continued growth of the pair XAU / USD will be the level of 1300.00. But for this, the pair XAU / USD needs to gain a foothold above the local maximum near the 1292.00 mark (April highs).
Support levels: 1277.00, 1274.00, 1260.00, 1253.00, 1248.00, 1235.00, 1220.00
Levels of resistance: 1287.00, 1292.00, 1300.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1273.00. Stop-Loss 1284.00. Take-Profit 1260.00, 1253.00, 1248.00, 1235.00, 1220.00
Buy Stop 1284.00. Stop-Loss 1273.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00

DJIA: Stephen Mnuchin cheered up investors
21/04/2017

Current Dynamics
US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said in his yesterday's speech that the tax reform plan will appear "very, very soon". This plan will be "decisive, substantial and will be the main priority for President Trump." After the presidential elections in the US against the backdrop of Donald Trump's pre-election promises to carry out tax reforms and stimulate fiscal policy, American stock markets and indices were actively growing, and government bonds were subject to large-scale sales. Now the US stock markets are seeing the opposite picture.
Investors are still being pressured by increased geopolitical tensions in the world after US missile strikes against Syria. The growing tensions between the US and North Korea also do not contribute to an increase in appetite for the purchase of risky assets. Investors once again prefer government bonds and other assets-seekers - gold and yen.
Also the general picture spoils some negative macro data coming from the USA. So, the data released yesterday by the US Department of Labor showed a reduction in the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits last week and an increase in the number of initial applications (244,000 versus 234,000 last week). The index of production activity, which is interrelated with the ISM index, fell to 22 points in April (against 32.8 in March).
Nevertheless, the main US stock indexes have grown today thanks to reports of companies exceeding the expectations of economists. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Thursday by 0.9% to 20582 points, S & P500 - by 0.8%, Nasdaq Composite - by 0.9%. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds against their sales rose to 2.257% from 2.202% on Wednesday, which also helped strengthen the dollar. US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin cheered up investors, giving them hope that Trump's plan to stimulate the US economy would still be realized.
Today, the financial markets have a low activity of traders on the eve of the first round of the presidential elections in France, which will be held this Sunday. The risk that the results of the elections could violate the integrity of the EU, still hinders investors from actively operating in the financial markets. If Marin Le Pen wins, which promised to withdraw France from the European Union, then the euro and European stock markets could literally collapse. Following them, American stock markets can follow. The demand for gold and yen will grow sharply.
Of the news for today is worth highlighting data from the United States. At 13:45 (GMT), indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector and service sector (PMI) from Markit for the US for April (preliminary value) are published. The index is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole. At 13:30, the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neil Kashkari begins, which is likely to follow the statements of other representatives of the Fed on the monetary policy in the US in general, and will favor an early increase in the rate in the US and a reduction in the Fed's budget. This will have a positive effect on the dollar, but is unlikely to support the US stock indexes.

Support and resistance levels
From the beginning of the previous month, the DJIA index, in general, is declining. With the absolute highs reached at the end of February near the 21170.0 mark, the DJIA index lost about 3.5%, having fallen to the current level of 20600.0. However, after yesterday's statements by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, the DJIA index rose, broke through the short-term resistance level of 20555.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), however, it was suspended by resistance level 20620.0 (the upper limit of the descending channel and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour chart again unfolds to short positions.
If the DJIA index returns below the level of 20555.0, then its decline may continue to the nearest support level of 20360.0 (the lower limit of the descending channels on the 4-hour and daily charts).
If the downward trend is to increase, the decline in the index may extend to the support levels of 1990.0 (December highs), 19850.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after rebounding in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark 21160.0). Further decline and breakdown 19600.0 level (EMA200 on the daily chart) will be critical for the bullish trend of the DJIA index.
To return to the purchases, the index must be fixed above the level 20750.0 (the upper limit of the range between the levels 20750.0 and 20360.0). While short-term downward correctional dynamics prevails.
Support levels: 20555.0, 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0, 19600.0
Resistance levels: 20620.0, 20750.0, 20886.0, 20980.0, 21170.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 20650.0. Stop-Loss 20540.0. Take-Profit 20750.0, 20886.0, 20980.0, 21170.0, 22000.0
Sell Stop 20540.0. Stop-Loss 20650.0. Take-Profit 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0, 19600.0

EuroStoxx50: Centrist Emmanuel Macron leads the presidential race
24/04/2017
Current dynamics
According to the latest information, during the first round of the presidential elections in France, Emmanuel MacRon won 23.9% of the vote, the second among Marin Le Pen with 21.4%. It is likely that during the second round of elections, Macron can defeat Le Pen. Conservative Francois Fillon, who took third place, has already called on his supporters to vote for Macron.
Macro's economic policy is favorable for the Eurozone and European financial markets. In the implementation of its economic program, the former Minister of Economy centrist Macron plans to reduce taxes for companies and increase public investment by 50 billion euros. Macron also advocates the expansion of economic partnership within the Eurozone, primarily with Germany. The victory of Macron during the first round of elections can provoke the growth of demand for euro and European assets.
According to EPFR Global, the inflow of funds into the market of shares in the region is increasing, the funds have already begun moving to the European market. The macroeconomic statistics of the Eurozone is improving, the stocks have appreciably fallen in price since the beginning of the month, and all points to the probability of activization of buyers of European assets after the elections in France. So, according to the latest data, business activity in France is growing at the fastest pace in almost six years. IHS Markit's purchasing managers' index in March was 57.1 (the value above 50 indicates activity growth).
Nevertheless, one should be careful when opening long positions on the EuroStoxx50 index this week. On Thursday (11:45 GMT) the ECB's interest rate decision will be published in the Eurozone. The modest growth rates of the Eurozone economy remain, the unemployment rate still remains at high levels (about 9.5%), and annual inflation fell to 1.5% in March against 2% in February, again below the ECB's target level.
As several ECB leaders announced last week, it is not yet time to make changes in the monetary and credit policy of the bank. "The recovery of the economy is still unstable," despite signs of improving the economic situation in the Eurozone. The next meeting of the ECB will be held on April 26-27, and, according to the statements of key figures of the ECB leadership, the European Central Bank will not change the extra soft monetary policy.
And this will become a supporting factor for the European stock market. At the same time, the victory of Macron can give the European Central Bank an opportunity to consider the question of the beginning of the curtailment of the stimulation of the Eurozone economy. If during the next press conference the head of the ECB Mario Draghi only hints at the possibility of starting the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone, the European stock indexes will react with a decrease.
If the ECB declares the continuation of the economic stimulus program, the rally on the European stock markets will continue, given the victory of Macron in the first round of elections and the increase in the probability of his victory in the second round of elections.

Support and resistance levels
The EuroStoxx50 index has been actively growing since the beginning of December and began to decline in April ahead of the presidential elections in France. Having opened with a gap up, the EuroStoxx50 index today broke through an important resistance level of 3515.0 (the Fibonacci level is 100% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015) and exceeded this level by 50 points. At the beginning of today's European session, the EuroStoxx50 index trades near the level of 3568.0 (the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts turned to long positions. If the positive dynamics continue, the EuroStoxx50 index will continue to rise in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 3680.0 (July highs of 2015).
An alternative scenario for the decline of the index will be linked both to the results of the second round of elections in France, if Marin Le Pen wins, or to the position of the ECB if the bank signals for the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone.
The signal for opening of the medium-term short positions on the EuroStoxx50 index will be a breakdown of the support level 3400.0 (EMA50 and the lower limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
In this case, the reduction targets will be support levels 3325.0 (January highs), 3240.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Positive dynamics is maintained, while the EuroStoxx50 index is above the levels of 3240.0, 3200.0 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015).
Support levels: 3515.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0, 3200.0
Resistance levels: 3578.0, 3600.0, 3680.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 3510.0 Stop-Loss 3560.0. Take-Profit 3470.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0
Buy Stop 3585.0. Stop-Loss 3545.0. Take-Profit 3600.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

XAG/USD: precious metals are getting cheaper
25/04/2017
Current Dynamics
The victory of Macron in the first round of the presidential elections in France reduced investors' anxiety over the possible victory of the far-right candidate Marin Le Pen in the French elections. As you know, Marin Le Pen acts with a radical program on migration, as well as the continued presence of France within the European Union and NATO.
If Macron succeeds in winning in the second round, this will be the second defeat of the supporters of secession from the European Union after the Netherlands. And this, in turn, will revive the propensity of investors to buy risky assets and lower prices for precious metals.
So, the June gold futures on COMEX fell yesterday in the price to the level of 1277.50 dollars per troy ounce, the lowest closing level since April 7, showing the strongest daily decline since March 10.
The spot price for silver is also declining today, continuing the series of falls from recent monthly and annual highs near the level of 18.55 dollars per troy ounce. The decrease from this level was already 4.2%.
And yet, on the eve of the second round of the presidential elections in France (the vote will be held on May 7), the weakening of the US dollar, the continuing geopolitical uncertainty will contribute to the preservation of demand for precious metals.
Investors are also concerned about the uncertainty regarding the timing of the start of the tax reform of US President Donald Trump, although the plan for reform Trump promised to present this week.
If the Fed starts implementing a plan to reduce its budget and increase the interest rate, as well as the first positive results in the implementation of the new economic policy in the US, the dollar will receive a powerful impetus to resume large-scale growth. This will lead to lower prices for precious metals, including silver.
Today we are waiting for data from the USA. At 14:00 (GMT), the US consumer confidence level for March is published, as well as data on sales of new housing in the US in March. These data are an important indicator of consumer confidence in the growth of the economy and the US real estate market. The increase in sales of houses also contributes to stimulating the accompanying spheres of industry, services, and the labor market. A high result strengthens the US dollar, low - weakens. Forecast: the level of consumer confidence will come out with a value of 123.7 (compared to 125.6 in February), sales of new homes in March decreased by 0.5%. If the forecast is confirmed or is worse, the dollar will react with a decline.
In any case, during the publication of data, the volatility in the dollar is expected to grow, including in the pair XAG / USD.

Support and resistance levels
The pair XAG / USD continues the almost non-stop decline for the seventh consecutive session.
The XAG / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 18.17 (the Fibonacci level of 50% of corrective growth to the fall of the pair since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 17.94 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline to an important support level of 17.58 (EMA200 on the daily chart And the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
The break at the level of 17.58 raises the risk of further reduction of the pair XAG / USD and its return to a downtrend with a long-term target of 15.72 (the low of 2016).
You can return to consideration of long positions after fixing the pair above the level of 17.94.
Support levels: 17.58, 17.10, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Levels of resistance: 17.94, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 17.77. Stop-Loss 17.92. Take-Profit 17.58, 17.10, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Buy Stop 17.92. Stop-Loss 17.77. Take-Profit 18.00, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75





*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

AUD/USD: data on inflation did not meet expectations_26/04/2017

Current dynamics
After this morning, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the RBA published the most important inflation indices in Australia (CPI for the first quarter of this year, the RBA index of core inflation by the truncated average method for the first quarter), the Australian dollar declined in the foreign exchange market.
Although the inflation rate returned to the central bank's target range of 2% -3%, the data on the rate of price growth turned out to be weaker than expected. Consumer prices in the first quarter increased by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (by 2.1% in annual terms). The forecast provided for an increase in consumer prices by 0.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2016 and by 2.3% compared to the same period last year.
According to economists, the acceleration of inflation caused a sharp rise in prices for gasoline. The rise in prices in the long term is likely to remain slowed due to pressure from record low wages growth rates and deterioration of the labor market situation.
The fall in commodity prices in recent years, a fairly high level of unemployment in the country (the last 10 years, unemployment is close to 6.0%), a weak increase in wages of employees, which does not contribute to the growth of consumer spending, as well as weak, according to the RBA , GDP growth - these are the main risks for the Australian economy.
It is likely that interest rates will remain the same for some time.
Another factor put pressure on commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar, this week. The US decided to introduce import duties on wood from Canada. This news testifies to the strengthening of protectionism in world trade by the US, and this has a negative impact on commodity currencies.
Now investors will focus on Donald Trump's tax reform plan in the US, which he promised to present today. If the plan turns out to be clear in terms of dates and details, this could lead to an increase in the US dollar throughout the market.
On Thursday - the speech of the Governor of the RBA Philip Lowey. The exact time of his speech has not yet been determined. But, most likely, his speech will not contain anything new about the monetary policy of the RBA. It is likely that the comments of Philip Lowe will not affect the quotations of the Australian dollar.

Support and resistance levels
After the publication of inflation indicators, the pair AUD / USD declined during today's Asian session. During the last three trading sessions, the AUD / USD pair is declining. Today, the pair pushed away from the key resistance level 0.7535 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and with the opening of the European session, the decline in the AUD / USD pair continued.
Negative dynamics of the pair, it seems, is growing. The breakdown of support levels of 0.7475 (April lows and the lower border of the downward channel on the daily chart), 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of a 23.6% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014) will increase the risks of return to the downtrend of the AUD / USD pair, which began in July 2014 of the year. The medium-term goal of this decline will be the level of 0.7155 (May and December minima of 2016).
The alternative scenario is related to the further weakening of the US dollar and the return of the pair AUD / USD above resistance levels 0.7535, 0.7570 (EMA200 and the top line of the descending channel on the 4-hour chart). If this scenario is implemented, the pair AUD / USD will grow with the targets of 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the fall wave of the pair from July 2014 and EMA144 on the weekly chart).
The medium-term positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair may recover already when the AUD / USD pair returns to the zone above the 0.7535 level.
Support levels: 0.7475, 0.7460, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7535, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7480. Stop-Loss 0.7520. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7400, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7520. Stop-loss 0.7480. Take-Profit 0.7535, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840




*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

EuroStoxx50: European indices fell from the highs
27/04/2017
Current dynamics
Prior to the publication of the interest rate decision and the ECB's press conference, the major European stock indexes are declining from the new annual highs achieved 3 days ago after the victory of Macron in the first round of the presidential elections in France.
The decision on the interest rate of the ECB will be published at 11:45 (GMT). "The recovery of the Eurozone economy is still unstable, despite signs of improving the economic situation," - more recently, ECB executives commented on economists' forecasts about the possibility of raising interest rates and curtailing the QE program in the euro area.
The ECB's main interest rate is currently 0%, the deposit rate for commercial banks is negative and is -0.4%. From the beginning of April, within the framework of the QE program, the ECB plans to purchase European assets worth 60 billion euros by the end of 2017. It is widely expected that today the ECB will not take any action with regard to interest rates. At a subsequent press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to confirm the policy of maintaining the soft monetary policy of the bank. The press conference will begin at 12:30 (GMT).
It is unlikely that the ECB will go to change the QE program on the eve of the second stage of the presidential elections in France, which will be held on May 7. However, some economists believe that at the June meeting, the ECB may announce changes in the current QE program. The Eurozone economy is slowly but still recovering. So, according to the data published today, the confidence index in the industry of the Eurozone in April rose by 2.6 versus +1.3 in March, the index of trust in services in April was +14.2 versus +12.8 in March. The index of sentiment in the economy of the Eurozone in April rose to 109.6 against 108.0 in March, thus reaching its highest level since August 2007. However, unemployment still remains at high levels (about 9.5%), and annual inflation fell in March to 1.5% against 2% in February, again below the ECB's target level.
For the market, it will be a big surprise if Mario Draghi declares that it is possible to consider the issue of curtailing or changing the QE program in the direction of reducing support for the region's economy at the ECB's next meeting. The balance of the ECB at $ 4.5 trillion can surpass the Fed's balance already next week. Reducing the balance will be tantamount to a tightening of the monetary policy of the ECB. In this case, the euro will rise sharply, and European stock indexes will fly down. The situation with the elections in France in this case will take a back seat.
Nevertheless, according to most market participants, today Mario Draghi's rhetoric will remain unchanged soft, and interest rates will remain at the same level. The reaction of European indices to such a decision of the ECB is expected to be restrained-positive.

Support and resistance levels
After a sharp rise against the backdrop of Macro's victory in the first round of elections in France, the last three days the EuroStoxx50 index is gradually decreasing. The day before the EuroStoxx50 index reached new highs for the last more than 2.5 years near the mark of 3590.0. Through this level, now passes the upper limit of the newly formed upstream channel on the daily chart.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart are still on the buyers’ side, however, on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts the indicators turned to short positions. It is likely that up to the second round of elections in France, the EuroStoxx50 index is unlikely to be able to update the recent highs near the 3590.0 mark.
The most likely scenario - the EuroStoxx50 index will remain in the range between the levels of 3515.0 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015), 3590.0.
The breakthrough of support level 3440.0 (the lower border of the rising channel and EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will open the way to further decrease of the EuroStoxx50 index with medium-term targets of 3325.0 (January highs), 3240.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The breakthrough to support level 3200.0 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015) will "close" the upward trend of the EuroStoxx50 index.
If the positive dynamics return again, the EuroStoxx50 index will continue to rise in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 3680.0 (July highs of 2015).
Support levels: 3515.0, 3440.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0, 3200.0
Resistance levels: 3590.0, 3600.0, 3680.0

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 3540.0 Stop-Loss 3595.0. Take-Profit 3515.0, 3470.0, 3440.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0
Buy Stop 3595.0. Stop-Loss 3540.0. Take-Profit 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0




*)Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics