Tifia Daily Market Analytics

DJIA: US stock markets remain under pressure
06/09/2017
Current dynamics
Received yesterday, during the US trading session, weak macro data on the US contributed to a sharp intraday decline in major US stock indexes.
The US Department of Commerce on Tuesday reported that production orders in July fell 3.3% compared to June, while orders for durable goods fell by 6.8% compared to the previous month.
The aggravation of geopolitical tension after North Korea's nuclear tests on Sunday, as well as the new hurricane "Irma" that is approaching Florida, also have a negative impact on US stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell by 234 points yesterday, the S & P500 - by 18 points, Nasdaq Composite fell by 59 points.
Shares of financial companies became outsiders in the S & P500. So, JP Morgan shares lost 2.4% yesterday, Bank of America - 3.2%. Shares of technological company United Technologies in the structure of DJIA on Tuesday fell by 5.7%.
The ICE dollar index closed Tuesday at around 92.25, the lowest level since August 29.
Today, US stock markets remain under pressure. Again, the increased demand for assets-seekers - yen, franc, gold. Gold futures on COMEX are traded with an increase of 0.3%, at 1340 dollars per troy ounce, reaching an annual maximum.
Recently, trades are taking place with sharp fluctuations. Investors are increasingly worried about how long the bull market will last. While the market outlook is generally positive, there are many risk factors. This is the preservation, and even growth, of the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the domestic political problems in the US and the White House, the weak macro data coming from the US. In the United States, Hurricane Harvey has not yet recovered from Hurricane Hurricane as he races on Florida, another powerful hurricane, Irma, is approaching.
Thus, the propensity of investors to buy risky assets noticeably decreases, which is reflected in the decline in major US stock indexes.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Today, the DJIA index is trading in a range between two important levels, the breakthrough of which can determine the direction of the further movement of DJIA in the short term. In case of breakdown of the support level 21720.0 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), one can consider the possibility of opening medium-term short positions.
The target of the decrease may be support levels 20810.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 20630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level 0% is near the mark 22177.0).
Breakdown of key support levels 20750.0, 20630.0 significantly strengthens the risks of completion of the long-term bullish trend of DJIA.
At the same time, DJIA maintains positive long-term dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes through the mark of 22350.0. Here, the upper border of the channel passes on the weekly chart. In case of the breakdown of the nearest strong short-term resistance level of 21810.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the growth of DJIA will resume, and the targets will be the levels of 22060.0, 2177.0 (highs of the year and August), 22350.0.
Support levels: 21720.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20810.0, 20630.0
Resistance levels: 21810.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22350.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 21850.0. Stop-Loss 21690.0. Take-Profit 22060.0, 22177.0, 22350.0
Sell Stop 21690.0. Stop-Loss 21850.0. Take-Profit 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20810.0, 20630.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: focus on ECB decisions
07/09/2017
Current dynamics
According to the data published on Thursday, the growth of the Eurozone economy in the second quarter (in annual terms) was 2.3% (the forecast was + 2.2%). The data show that the economy of the Eurozone grew faster than in early 2017.
In the 1st quarter, according to GDP growth, the Eurozone outperformed the US, and in the second quarter, growth accelerated.
This data came out on the eve of the publication of the ECB's decision on the interest rate (at 11:45 GMT). It is expected that the rates will remain at the same level. A little later (12:30 GMT) the ECB press conference will begin.
It is likely that following the meeting of the Governing Council, the president of the central bank, Mario Draghi, will signal that the bank will begin to reduce the program for the purchase of assets, the amount of which is 2.3 trillion euros.
Prospects for the growth of the Eurozone economy are becoming increasingly positive. Nevertheless, the inflation rate remains well below the target level set by the central bank.
ECB executives decide what to do with the asset purchase program in conditions of low inflation and the limited availability of available for purchase assets on the stock market. The ECB may postpone a decision on this issue.
Nevertheless, the euro is growing on expectations of the ECB's statement about the curtailment of the incentive program. The euro is still trading below the five-year average. At the same time, there are positive changes in the Eurozone economy.
Investors' opinions as to whether the ECB will today indicate the possibility of curtailing the QE program were divided approximately 50/50.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The pair EUR / USD continues to grow in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 1.2100 mark.
In the period from 11:45 to 13:00 (GMT), a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market. The reaction of the market to Mario Draghi's speech can be unpredictable. And so far it is unclear what Mario Draghi will say, but he can develop the markets.
The lower boundary of the channel passes through the support level 1.1780 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).
If Mario Draghi declares the start and the deadline for the curtailment of the QE program, the euro will become sharply stronger on the foreign exchange market. In this case, the targets for the EUR / USD growth will be the levels of 1.2050 (July 2012 low), 1.2100.00, 1.2180 (Fibonacci level of 50% corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900), 1.2370 (EMA200 on the monthly chart).
If the ECB postpones the solution of the issue or extends the terms of QE, the euro will fall under pressure.
The breakdown of the support level 1.1780 will create prerequisites for a deeper decline in EUR / USD and the opening of short positions. So far, long positions on EUR / USD are relevant.
Support levels: 1.1900, 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620
Resistance levels: 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1930. Stop-Loss 1.2010. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620
Buy Stop. Stop-Loss 1.1930. Take-Profit 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2370



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/JPY: the dollar continues to fall
08/09/2017
Current dynamics
The dollar continues to decline. Concerns about geopolitical risks and natural disasters in the US, weak economic data and doubts about the prospects for raising the Federal Reserve's interest rates helped the dollar to fall to its lowest level for more than two and a half years.
The ICE dollar index today decreased by 0.5%, reaching a minimum of 33 months.
The fall in the USD / JPY began in July, as expectations for new stimulus measures in the US weakened, including lower taxes and increased spending on infrastructure. Recently, increased geopolitical concerns about the testing of weapons in North Korea, forced investors to buy more reliable currencies such as gold, franc, yen. This Saturday in North Korea will be the anniversary of the founding of the state. A year ago, on that day, the military tested nuclear weapons.
History can repeat itself. But this time it could be like the next launch of the missile towards Japan, as well as a test explosion of nuclear weapons in the DPRK.
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump again cautioned against North Korea, saying that "North Korea behaves badly and needs to be stopped". "The military actions against North Korea - this is one of the options for the development of events", according to Trump. Military confrontation "definitely can happen".
The dollar today fell by 0.7% against the yen and by 0.6% against the Swiss franc. Gold prices rose by 0.7% to 1,357.00 dollars per ounce.
Investors are also worried that the hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma" may negatively affect the economic performance of the United States in the short term. This may also have a negative impact on expectations of an increase in FRS interest rates. The increase in interest rates, as a rule, provides support to the currency. However, a number of Fed officials have expressed doubts about the need for such a step on the part of the Fed on the background of low inflation in the US.
The decline in the dollar is also due to a decrease in the yield of US government bonds. Today, the yield of 10-year US government bonds continued to decline and, according to Tradeweb, fell to 2,027% from the level of 2,061%, recorded on Thursday.
Against the backdrop of a large-scale decline in the dollar and growth in demand for safe haven assets, the US dollar / Japanese yen has reached a new 10-month low, breaking through the 108.00 level.
It is likely that today, at the end of the trading week, many investors will want to fix profit in short positions on the dollar, which will cause its corrective growth. Nevertheless, the negative attitude to the dollar persists. Probably further decline in the dollar in the short term, including in the pair USD / JPY.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Technical analysis
Since July, the active decline of the pair USD / JPY has started, which broke through the key support levels of 110.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 110.10 (Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and 99.90 level), 108.80 (EMA200, EMA144 on the weekly chart).
A powerful negative impulse, based on a large-scale weakening of the dollar, pushes the pair USD / JPY towards support levels of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), 105.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the monthly chart).
Apparently, only near the level of 105.00 it is possible to stop the fall of the USD / JPY.
An alternative scenario involves the return of the USD / JPY in the zone above the level of 108.80 and the resumption of growth with targets at levels 110.10, 110.90.
Nevertheless, the fundamental factor speaks in favor of the further fall of the USD / JPY.
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastics) on 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts also give signals for sales.
Support levels: 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance levels: 108.10, 108.80, 110.10, 110.90, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading recommendations
Buy Stop. Stop Loss 107.40. Take-Profit 108.80, 110.10, 110.90
Sell in the market. Stop Loss. Take-Profit 107.00, 106.50, 105.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CHF: on the eve of the NBS meeting
11/09/2017
Current dynamics
The Swiss National Bank has traditionally stated that the Swiss franc is overbought, consistently advocating a soft monetary policy in the country.
As a result of the efforts of the Swiss National Bank aimed at curbing the growth of its currency, its foreign exchange reserves grew to about 700 billion francs (735 billion US dollars). However, investors continue buying francs.
The Swiss franc, along with gold, the yen, is often used by investors as an asylum during periods of economic and political instability, thanks to Switzerland's strong economy, low levels of its debt and the stability of its political system.
Nevertheless, for the export-oriented Swiss economy, the franc's exchange rate is extremely important. A large share of its exports falls to the Eurozone, China, the United States, and the rising franc leads to a rise in the price of Swiss goods, making them less competitive.
Realizing this, the NBS seeks to contain the growth of its national currency.
The Swiss National Bank has set a negative deposit rate, hoping that this will reduce the attractiveness of Swiss assets for international investors.
Also, the NBS periodically conducts currency interventions with franc sales, of which it never declares either before or after the intervention.
At the end of July, the pair USD / CHF reached the level of 0.9445, after which its sharp, unexplained growth began, while the dollar was actively declining in the currency market against other major currencies. It is likely that the Swiss National Bank conducted a currency intervention. As a result, the USD/CHF grew by about 3.5%, reaching 0.9770 in August.
Today, USD/CHF is again trading near the level of 0.9445, from which the pair started to grow at the end of July.
On Thursday, a meeting of the NBS on monetary policy will take place, and at 08:30 (GMT) the NBS's decision on the interest rate, which at the moment is (-0.75%), will be published.
It is necessary to be extremely cautious when opening short positions for a pair of USD/CHF, since unexpected decisions from the NBS are possible on the background of the newly strengthened franc.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After reaching the annual low at 0.9445 at the end of July, the pair USD / CHF skyrocketed during several trading sessions and reached the level of 0.9770 in the middle of last month (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global wave of decline since December 2016 and from the level 1.0300).
Nevertheless, in the future, the pair USD / CHF again moved into a downtrend against the background of a large-scale falling dollar.
Today, trading opened with a sharp increase in the dollar in currency pairs with the yen, the franc, as well as the decline in gold prices. Probably, this was due to the fact that the DPRK did not start the missile once again, as it was expected on September 9, when the anniversary of the founding of the state was celebrated.
Nevertheless, the pressure on the dollar persists. It is not excluded that already today during the American session the pair USD / CHF decline will resume.
You also need to be careful on the eve of the NBS meeting this week. Unexpected decisions on the part of the NBS or new currency interventions with franc sales are possible, which will cause another sharp growth of the USD / CHF.
In this case, technical analysis fades into the background under the pressure of fundamental factors.
The first signal to the growth of USD / CHF will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level 0.9540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In this case, the growth targets will be the resistance levels 0.9600 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.9650 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and the level of 1.0300) 0.9700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.9770 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
In the case of the breakdown of the level of 0.9400, the decline in the pair USD / CHF may resume within the descending channel on the daily chart. The lower boundary of this channel passes near the support level of 0.9300. This level will become the goal if the USD/CHF is resumed.
The strong negative dynamics prevails.
Support levels: 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9540, 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9700, 0.9730, 0.9770

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 0.9520. Stop-Loss 0.9460. Take-Profit 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9670, 0.9690, 0.9730, 0.9770
Sell Stop 0.9460. Stop-Loss 0.9520. Take-Profit 0.9400, 0.9300



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: inflation in the UK rose again
12/09/2017
Current dynamics
At the beginning of today's European session, after the Office of National Statistics of Great Britain was presented a report on consumer inflation, the pound rose sharply in the foreign exchange market. The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices and is a key indicator of inflation. The data show that the inflationary pressure shows almost no signs of slowing down.
According to the data presented, consumer inflation in the UK in August (in annual terms) was 2.9% (forecast was + 2.8% and + 2.6% in July).
The central bank of Great Britain is in a difficult situation. On the one hand, the Bank of England has faced a problem of weak economic growth and wages, and on the other hand, with rising prices, which are on the rise due to the sharp drop in the British pound that began after the referendum on the withdrawal of the country from the EU in June 2016.
Inflation significantly exceeds the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2%. At the same time, salaries grow much more slowly, not keeping up with inflation and cutting the level of consumer spending. Inflationary pressure, which affects British buyers, already has a negative impact on the UK economy, whose growth is determined primarily by internal factors.
On Wednesday (08:30 GMT) data on wages and unemployment will be presented, and on Thursday the meeting of the Bank of England will be held. At 11:00 (GMT) also on Thursday will be published a decision on the interest rate in the UK.
It is expected that the leaders of the Bank of England will leave the key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. Some economists expect that only early next year, the Bank of England will gradually increase the cost of borrowing.
On Thursday, especially at 11:00 (GMT), a sharp increase in volatility is expected not only in pound trade, but also throughout the currency market, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Technical Analysis
The GBP / USD pair is almost continuously growing over the course of six trading sessions.
After the release of inflation data, the pair GBP / USD today broke through the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the fall of the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3260 (annual and August high) and continues grow in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
The upper limit of the ascending channels runs near the mark 1.3390, just below the level of 1.3460 (the July and September highs of 2016 reached after the referendum on Brexit).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly charts turned to long positions.
In case of consolidation above the level of 1.3210, further growth is likely. The alternative scenario involves breakdown of the support level of 1.3210 and a further decline in the pair GBP / USD to support level 1.2980 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
A decline below support level 1.2870 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will strengthen the risk of a GBP / USD return in a downtrend.
Support levels: 1.3260, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2870
Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3390, 1.3460

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3240. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2870
Buy Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3240. Take-Profit 1.3360, 1.3400, 1.3460, 1.3500



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: strong employment data expected
13/09/2017
Current dynamics
Tomorrow is expected to publish important data assessing the state of the Australian economy.
At 01:00 (GMT), the consumer price inflation expectations index from the Melbourne Institute will be published, reflecting consumer expectations for future inflation for the next 12 months. Previous rate is +4.2%. If the current figure for September is higher, then the likelihood of an increase in the RBA rate will increase, which will have a positive effect on the Australian currency.
At 01:30 (GMT), data from the Australian labor market for August will be released, which may exceed expectations that the increase in jobs in August will be 20,000 above the long-term average of 15,000, and the unemployment rate in August will be 5, 6% (in the previous month, the number of new jobs also turned out to be higher than the consensus forecast of 20,000, and unemployment was also at 5.6%).
Strong Australian employment data may force investors to reconsider their forecasts regarding the start of rate hikes by the central bank, which can support the national currency.
Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia retained the key rate at a record low of 1.5%. "The growth of the exchange rate will become a factor of limited inflationary pressure in the economy, and, apparently, will cause a slowdown in the growth of economic activity and inflation compared to current forecasts", RBA Governor Philip Lowey said yesterday.
In combination with the recovery of Australia's GDP in the second quarter, strong data from the labor market can force the RBA to change its position from neutral to a tendency to tighten policies.
Also tomorrow (02:00 GMT) important macro data will be published from China (retail sales and level of industrial production for August).
China is the largest trade and economic partner and buyer of primary commodities in Australia. Therefore, positive news from China also positively affects the currencies of the Pacific region, including the Australian dollar.
It is expected positive macro statistics from China, which will also support the Australian dollar.
Thus, there are several strong fundamental factors that may tomorrow provoke the growth of the Australian dollar, including against the US dollar, which recently shows a large decline in the foreign exchange market and is under pressure amid growing pessimism of investors regarding the possibility of a further increase in the interest rate in the US, as well as the continuing tensions between the US and North Korea and the political contradictions in Washington.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
AUD/USD keeps positive dynamics and grows in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 0.8130.
Long positions are still relevant. While the AUD / USD pair is above the short-term support levels of 0.8010 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7935 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the bulls are not threatened.
Moreover, with a correction decrease to support level 0.8010, it is possible to increase long positions with stops below the level of 0.7980.
You can return to consideration of short positions in case of breakdown of short-term support level 0.7935. In this case, a further corrective decrease to the support levels of 0.7850 is possible (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014, the minimum of wave is near 0.6830). Here, the bottom line of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.
In case of breakdown of the support level 0.7800 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), the AUD / USD decline will accelerate with the target at the support level of 0.7680 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will return the AUD / USD to the global downtrend beginning in July 2014.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers side.
Support levels: 0.8010, 0.7935, 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7800, 0.7680
Resistance levels: 0.8050, 0.8120, 0.8160

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.8010. Stop-Loss 0.8055. Take-Profit 0.7935, 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7800, 0.7680
Buy Stop 0.8055. Stop-Loss 0.8010. Take-Profit 0.8100, 0.8120, 0.8160




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

FTSE100: The Bank of England decided to keep the current interest rate at the same level
14/09/2017
Current dynamics
Today was a busy day of publication of important macro-economic news. After the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the deposit rate at -0.75%, the franc declined in the foreign exchange market. According to the NBS, "the franc remains highly overvalued", and currency interventions with the franc's sales are still "necessary".
At 11:00 (GMT), the decision of the Bank of England was published, according to which the central bank of Great Britain decided to keep the current interest rate at the previous level of 0.25%, the lowest level for the last 300 years.
Contradictory data from the UK, published recently, including high inflation, improvement in the labor market and increased production activity, but weak wage growth, made it necessary for the Bank of England not to rush to make a decision on changing monetary policy.
The pound reacted to the Bank of England's decision by strengthening, while the London Stock Exchange index declined. Two of the 9 members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for an immediate increase in the interest rate amid accelerated inflation, which hit British incomes, which also reflected a decline in consumer spending.
The UK economy is focused on the domestic market, and the decline in consumer spending negatively affects the growth of the country's GDP.
Nevertheless, the UK economy against the backdrop of Brexit still requires support in the form of maintaining a soft monetary policy.
The propensity of some members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to tighten monetary policy gives rise to an opinion among economists that the Bank of England may soon begin to phase out the extra soft monetary policy.
Some economists expect that early next year, the Bank of England will gradually increase the cost of borrowing.
And this is a negative factor for the British stock market, and a positive one for the pound.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
In response to the decision of the Bank of England on the rate, the FTSE100 index fell sharply, failing to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 7395.0 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).
Immediately after the publication of the decision, the FTSE100 index within half an hour decreased by 0.8% to support level 7335.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
If the negative dynamics will increase, then the nearest targets of reducing the FTSE100 will be support levels of 7290.0 (summer lows), 7265.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 7265.0 will accelerate the decline of the index within the descending channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 7090.0 (the low of February, the highs of October).
Breakdown of the level 7090.0 and further decline will mean a turn and end of the upward trend of the FTSE100 index.
The scenario for the resumption of growth implies the return of the FTSE100 index above the local resistance level of 7436.0.
While the Bank of England maintains an extra soft monetary policy, the scenario for the preservation and development of the bullish trend remains relevant.
Support levels: 7335.0, 7290.0, 7265.0, 7200.0, 7090.0, 7050.0
Resistance levels: 7395.0, 7400.0, 7436.0, 7450.0, 7500.0, 7600.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 7410.0. Take-Profit 7290.0, 7265.0, 7200.0, 7090.0, 7050.0
Buy Stop 7410.0. Stop-Loss 7290.0. Take-Profit 7436.0, 7450.0, 7500.0, 7600.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Brent: prices are rising again
15/09/2017
Current dynamics
During today's Asian session, the Japanese broadcaster NHK announced the next launch of the North Korean ballistic missile towards Japan. Investors reacted rather sluggishly to the next launch of the missile. The price of oil in response to this message has slightly decreased. However, in general, quotations were stable, and during the European session, the growth of oil prices resumed.
A sharp increase in oil prices is observed for the second week in a row. The tension between the United States and North Korea has somewhat decreased. Concerns about the effects of hurricanes in the United States and the political contradictions in Washington have also weakened a bit.
American refineries have been restoring their work after the hurricanes, and the demand for oil in the US is gradually recovering.
On Tuesday, its monthly report was released by OPEC. According to this document, the cartel's output in August fell for the first time since April. In addition, OPEC countries adhered to the agreement on oil production reduction more strictly. OPEC and countries outside the cartel are discussing the possibility of extending the agreement after March next year.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday presented a report according to which the world oil supply in August fell for the first time in the last 4 months, by 720,000 barrels per day. At the same time, the IEA raised the forecast for the growth of world oil demand in 2017 to 1.6 million barrels per day. Optimistic forecasts for oil demand in the coming months and data on the fall of world oil reserves contribute to higher oil prices.
Today at 17:00 (GMT) the American oil service company Baker Hughes will publish a weekly report on the number of active drilling platforms in the US. This report is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices. The previous report indicated a reduction in the number of active drilling platforms due to Hurricane Harvey (up to 756 against 759 weeks earlier and 768 two weeks ago). If the number of active drilling rigs decreases again, this will also contribute to the growth of oil quotes.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
This week, the price of Brent crude oil broke through an important resistance level of 54.70
(EMA200 on the weekly chart) and continues to grow in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper border of which passes near the mark of 58.45 (highs of 2017).
The fundamental factors speak in favor of maintaining the positive dynamics of oil prices and the likelihood of their further growth.
The breakthrough of resistance level 55.65 (EMA50 on the monthly chart) will create prerequisites for further price growth with the target of 58.45 dollars per barrel of Brent crude oil.
The reduction scenario involves a breakdown of the 54.70 support level and a further price fall with targets at support levels of 52.90 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart), 52.45 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of the support levels 51.20 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute lows of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) will mean a price return to bearish trend, and the decline may extend to the level of support at 50.00 (the lows of August). Further objectives are support levels 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). A more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
So far, positive dynamics have prevailed.
Support levels: 55.00, 54.70, 53.45, 53.30, 52.90, 52.45, 51.70, 51.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 55.65, 56.50, 56.80, 57.50, 58.45

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 54.90. Stop-Loss 55.80. Take-Profit 54.70, 53.45, 53.30, 52.90, 52.45, 51.70, 51.20, 50.70
Buy Stop 55.80. Stop-Loss 54.90. Take-Profit 56.00, 56.50, 56.80, 57.50, 58.45



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/JPY: Dollar grows against yen
18/09/2017
Current dynamics
The focus of the traders this week will be the meetings of the central banks of the United States and Japan. Wednesday (18:00 GMT) will publish the Fed's decision on the interest rate. Also, economic forecasts of the Federal Reserve will be presented, including for 2020. At 18:30 (GMT), the FRS press conference will begin, and investors will closely follow the speech of the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen to catch signals about further plans by the Fed to tighten monetary policy. According to CME Group forecasts, the probability that interest rates will remain unchanged is 98.6%.
Meanwhile, the US dollar / Japanese yen pair is trading today with an increase of 0.5%, at 111.30 after reaching the highest level in almost eight weeks at 111.41. Concerns about political risks have weakened.
On Friday, North Korea launched another missile, but on Monday the market ignores this fact. In addition, in Japan today is a state holiday, and the market is experiencing a reduction in liquidity and trading volumes on the yen.
On Thursday (02:00 GMT) will be published the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate. It is widely expected that the main interest rate in Japan will remain at the same level (-0.1%).
The Bank of Japan adheres to an extra soft monetary policy. As repeatedly stated by the representatives of the bank, in order to accelerate inflation, which is near zero values, the Bank of Japan can expand the measures of quantitative and qualitative easing.
Nevertheless, since the end of 2016, the yen has appreciated significantly against the dollar, including against the backdrop of investors buying yen as a safe haven.
This worries the monetary authorities of Japan, whose economy is focused, mainly, on the export of high-tech products.
At 06:30 (GMT) on Thursday, the Bank of Japan will hold a press conference. The head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda will present to investors the CBR's position on the issue of monetary policy and will assess the prospects for economic activity in the country and the course of monetary policy.
In this regard, the pair USD / JPY is expected to increase volatility on Wednesday from 18:00 (GMT) and on Thursday from 02:00 to 07:00 (GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
A week earlier, amid growing tension between the United States and North Korea, the pair USD / JPY fell to the support level of 107.30 (the lows of September and the year, as well as the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, the market ignored the next launch of the North Korean missile last Friday. As a result, USD / JPY broke through resistance level 110.15 (EMA50 on the daily chart, Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and 99.90 level), and today it makes an attempt to gain a foothold above the important level of 110.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart ).
Today, the dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the foreign exchange market.
Nevertheless, the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.
If the pair USD / JPY continues to grow, the immediate target will be level 113.00 (50% Fibonacci level and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
The reduction scenario implies the return of USD / JPY to the level of 110.15 and the resumption of the decline in the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which runs near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%).
Support levels: 110.90, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance levels: 112.00, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 111.50. Stop Loss 110.80. Take-Profit 112.00, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
Sell Stop 110.80. Stop Loss 111.50. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: volatility is expected to increase
19/09/2017
Current dynamics
The main events of the week started are the meetings of the central banks of the USA and Japan. The two-day meeting of the Fed starts today, and will end on Wednesday with a publication (at 18:00 GMT) of interest rate decisions and a press conference, which will begin at 18:30 (GMT).
On Thursday, a more favorable than expected consumer price index in the US was published, which strengthened investors' expectations about the likelihood of another rate hike this year. According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of a rate hike by the end of the year at 58% against the 41% level noted last week.
On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to announce plans to reduce its portfolio of mortgage and government bonds by $ 4.5 trillion, but will leave interest rates unchanged.
If the leaders of the Fed express confidence in the restoration of economic growth in the US, it will support the dollar.
Concerning the New Zealand dollar, it is worth noting that volatility in trading on it could rise sharply on Monday, when the results of the general election in New Zealand, which will be held on Saturday, will be known. According to the latest opinion poll, the gap between the candidates remains very small. 42.4% of the respondents are ready to cast their votes for the National Party, and 40.4% for the opposition Labor Party. If the ruling National Party wins, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market.
From the news for today it is worth paying attention to the publication after 13:00 (GMT) of the data from the auction of dairy products. The price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out last time with the value of + 0.3%.
It is expected that the price of milk powder will not change or fall by 2%, which will have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Today, NZD/USD is making another attempt to break through the resistance level of 0.7290 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
At the same time, NZD / USD keeps positive dynamics, trading in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 0.7550 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline from 0.8800, which began in July 2014, December 2016).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts were turned to long positions.
In case of breaking through the local resistance level of 0.7345, the growth of NZD / USD pair will continue with the target at the level of 0.7550.
In the alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the support level of 0.7240 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), further decrease to the support levels 0.7200 (EMA144), 0.7175 (EMA200 on the daily chart) is possible.
The breakdown at 0.7175 raises the risks of a return to a downtrend. The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 0.7080 (the lower boundary of the descending channel on the daily chart and EMA200 on the monthly chart).
The break of 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860) will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the downtrend.
Support levels: 0.7265, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7175
Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7345, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7260. Stop-Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6860
Buy Stop 0.7310. Stop-Loss 0.7260. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com