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This is a discussion on Tifia Daily Market Analytics within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; EUR/USD: on the eve of the ECB meeting 17/01/2020 Since the opening of today's trading day, the EUR / USD ...

      
   
  1. #631
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    EUR/USD: on the eve of the ECB meeting
    17/01/2020

    Since the opening of today's trading day, the EUR / USD pair has been trading in a narrow range on the eve of the publication of the ECB's decision on rates.
    At the beginning of today's European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near 1.1090, below strong short-term resistance levels of 1.1108 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1115 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
    Below the key resistance level of 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of short positions.
    At the same time, the ECB leadership today may announce an increase in inflation expectations and reiterate that it is "closely monitoring the potential side effects" of negative interest rates on the economy.
    The ECB's decision on rates will be published at 12:45 (GMT), and the press conference will begin today at 13:30 (GMT). A sharp increase in volatility is likely to occur during this period of time, especially if unexpected statements regarding the monetary policy of the bank are followed by ECB management. Negative interest rates are likely to continue for some time to come, but the ECB may revise them at some point.
    Any statements by the ECB management that may indicate the possibility of moving away from the bank’s extra-soft monetary policy towards tightening it will be regarded by market participants as a signal to resume purchases of the euro, which will also cause the EUR / USD pair to grow.
    In this case, after the breakdown of the resistance level, 1.1150 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels 1.1205, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015). A signal for the implementation of this scenario will be a growth into the zone above the resistance level of 1.1115.
    The breakdown of the local support level of 1.1064 may provoke a deeper decline in EUR / USD.
    Support Levels: 1.1064, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900
    Resistance Levels: 1.1108, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell Stop 1.1060. Stop-Loss 1.1115. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900
    Buy Stop 1.1115. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1285


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  2. #632
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    NZD/USD: commodity demand falls
    24/01/2020

    The New Zealand dollar received support today at the beginning of the Asian trading session after the publication of consumer inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) in the country in the 4th quarter increased by +1.9% (after rising by +1.5% in the 3rd quarter, with the forecast of +1.8%). The NZD / USD rose in the first half of today's trading day, reaching an intraday high near 0.6628.
    Meanwhile, commodity prices continue to decline amid the spread of the deadly virus in China.
    While the NZD / USD is trading above the key support level of 0.6545 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), its long-term dynamics remains.
    A signal for resuming sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 0.6613 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart) with the target at the support level of 0.6598 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
    The breakdown of the support level of 0.6428 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and a further decline will indicate the resumption of the global downtrend NZD / USD and the relevance of short positions with long-term goals at support levels 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100.
    On the other hand, a breakdown of local resistance levels of 0.6635, 0.6665 could trigger an alternative growth scenario in the upward channel on the daily chart with targets at resistance levels of 0.6770 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global wave of the pair decline from the level of 0.8820).
    Meanwhile, more active growth of the New Zealand dollar at the moment should not be expected, according to economists. Investors are gearing up for a slowdown in China, the largest consumer of commodities. Rising concerns about declining commodity demand will put pressure on commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.
    Support Levels: 0.6613, 0.6698, 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
    Resistance Levels: 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 0.6590. Stop-Loss 0.6640. Take-Profit 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200
    Buy Stop 0.6640. Stop-Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865


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  3. #633
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    EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
    27/01/2020

    The number of infected people with coronavirus in China has already exceeded 2,700, and the number of deaths has reached 80. The situation threatens to get out of control, and traders began to take into account the inevitable slowdown in China's GDP growth, which causes a decrease in world stock indexes.
    Amid concerns about the spread of coronavirus and rising fears of a slowdown in the global economy, demand for safe haven assets (such as gold, yen) and the dollar are growing again.
    At the same time, the euro resumed falling against the dollar at the beginning of today's European session after the publication of disappointing macro data (at 09:00 GMT). According to the IFO, the business climate worsened in Germany in January. The current situation assessment indicator published by the CESifo research group came out with a value of 99.1, which is worse than the forecast of 99.4. The IFO Economic Expectations Index, which serves as an indicator of current conditions and expectations in the German business sector, came out with a value of 92.9, which is worse than the forecast of 95.0 and the previous value of 93.9. The slowdown in Germany's economic growth and the deterioration of sentiment in the country's business circles is a bearish factor for EUR.

    EUR / USD continues to trade in the zone below the key resistance level of 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
    To resume growth, the price needs to break through the nearest resistance levels of 1.1064, 1.1082 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1105 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
    However, the growth of EUR / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance level of 1.1150.
    In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the resistance level, 1.1150 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels 1.1205, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015).
    A breakdown of the local support level of 1.1015 (today's low) may trigger a deeper decline in EUR / USD. Below the key resistance level of 1.1150, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, and a decline to the zone below the support level of 1.1000 speaks in favor of short positions.
    Support Levels: 1.1025, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900
    Resistance Levels: 1.1064, 1.1082, 1.1105, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell Stop 1.1010. Stop-Loss 1.1040. Take-Profit 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900
    Buy Stop 1.1040. Stop-Loss 1.1010. Take-Profit 1.1064, 1.1082, 1.1105, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  4. #634
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    AUD/USD: commodity currencies are under pressure
    28/01/2020

    Earlier this week, the AUD / USD broke through the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart and continues to decline, trading at the beginning of today's European session near the level of 0.6745.
    The reluctance of investors to take risks due to the spreading coronavirus in China puts pressure on commodity prices, one of the largest consumers of which is China.
    According to Chinese authorities, on Monday the number of people infected with coronavirus exceeded 4,500, and the number of deaths reached 106. Investors take into account slowdown in China's GDP growth due to an outbreak of coronavirus. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar is also declining, losing about 4% since the start of the month against the US dollar.
    In case of further decrease in AUD / USD, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6670 (2019 lows), 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
    On Wednesday (00:30 GMT) inflation data for Australia for the 4th quarter will be published. Most likely, the data will confirm that core inflation remains below the target level (it is expected that growth in consumer inflation in the 4th quarter was +0.6% and +1.7% in annual terms). If the data turn out to be even weaker than the forecast, then the pressure on the RBA to further soften its policy at the February 4 meeting will intensify. The RBA is also expected to lower forecasts for GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2019 and in the 1st quarter of 2020, which will also put pressure on the AUD.
    At the same time, the USD is strengthening, including due to the spread of the coronavirus and the fall of world stock indices.
    A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6740 (today's and monthly lows) will confirm a downward trend and a return to the global downtrend, in which AUD / USD has been since August 2011.
    In the current situation, only short positions should be considered. You can return to AUD / USD purchases after the pair returns to the ascending channel on the daily chart, the lower border of which passes through the mark of 0.6820.
    Support Levels: 0.6828, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
    Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6881, 0.6910, 0.6938

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
    Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6881, 0.6910


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  5. #635
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    GBP/USD: on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England
    29/01/2020

    On the eve of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, the pound remains positive, and the GBP / USD pair is trading in the upward channel on the daily chart, above the key support level of 1.2835 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
    The Bank of England will publish the decision on the rate on Thursday at 12:00 (GMT). It is widely expected that the Bank of England will maintain its current monetary policy unchanged. Also, many economists believe that the Bank of England in 2020 will also not change its policy amid a recovery in the UK economy.
    Many economists predict an acceleration of UK GDP growth from 1.0% in 2020 to 1.8% in 2021 due to planned fiscal stimulus measures and the expected growth in investment, which will be possible if a trade deal is concluded with the European Union before the end of this year.
    On Thursday, it is also worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, which will begin at 12:30 (GMT). If he nevertheless favors a softer monetary policy, then the pound could drop sharply.
    In any case, the volatility in the pound quotes during this period of time can increase sharply.
    Below resistance levels 1.3120 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 1.3050, short positions are preferred.
    The breakdown of support levels 1.2995 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.2955 (January lows) will trigger a further decline in GBP / USD to the key support level of 1.2835.
    In case of breakdown of the resistance level 1.3050 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the pair will continue to grow towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the reduce GBP / USD pair in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
    On Wednesday, investors will be waiting for the publication of the Fed decision on the rate at 19:00 (GMT). The rate is likely to remain at the level of 1.75%, which is not to cause a strong reaction from the dollar.
    Support Levels: 1.2995, 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2835
    Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3060. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800
    Buy Stop 1.3060. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  6. #636
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    Brent: price drop is likely to continue
    30/01/2020
    Current Dynamics

    After the price of Brent crude oil soared earlier this month as a result of a sharp increase in tension in the Middle East and reached $71.95 a barrel, a sharp drop in oil prices began later. The driver of the "price hike south" was the spread of coronavirus in China, threatening to go into a pandemic.
    The number of cases in China exceeded 6,000, and more than 130 died.
    At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is trading at $58.60 per barrel. Information from the US Department of Energy put additional pressure on oil quotes. According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, Wednesday, crude oil inventories grew by 3.548 million barrels last week (forecast implied an increase of 482,000 barrels).
    A decline in demand from China and an increase in US oil reserves will put pressure on US oil producers.
    The price of Brent crude oil broke through the key support level of 63.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel) and continued to decline.
    A breakdown of the support level of 58.50 and a decrease into the area below the support level of 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%) will mean a break in the bull trend and the resumption of the global downtrend. In case of further decline, the immediate goal will be the support level of 50.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
    There is no convincing evidence that the dynamics of oil prices will change significantly in the near future. A further drop in commodity prices, including oil, is likely.
    Only a return to the zone above the resistance level of 63.90 will again make long positions relevant.
    Support Levels: 58.50, 56.90, 55.00
    Resistance Levels: 60.40, 61.70, 63.00, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell by market. Stop-Loss 59.50. Take-Profit 56.90, 55.00
    Buy Stop 60.50. Stop-Loss 58.20. Take-Profit 61.70, 63.00, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  7. #637
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    XAU/USD: Coronavirus pushes gold quotes up
    31/01/2020

    The "first phase" trade agreement between the United States and China, signed two weeks ago, eased tensions in trade relations between the two countries and gave a new positive impetus to stock indices. However, other factors may adversely affect economic growth in 2020.
    A new negative factor of a global scale again threatens the global economy. This time, investor caution is fueled by fears about the spread of coronavirus in China. Representatives of the World Health Organization (WHO) have already expressed significant concern about the possibility of the spread of the virus outside of China.
    In this situation, the demand for protective assets, including gold, is growing. A strong positive momentum remains, pushing gold quotes up. In case of breakdown of the nearest resistance level at 1585.00 (April 2013 highs and Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline from September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00), the XAU / USD pair will go towards the upper border of the upward channel on the weekly chart, passing near the mark of 1620.00.
    In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the short-term support level of 1569.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), XAU / USD will resume the decline with targets at the support levels of 1484.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%), 1456.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). A further decline in XAU / USD is unlikely, and, in the current situation, long positions are preferred.
    Support Levels: 1569.00, 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00
    Resistance Levels: 1585.00, 1600.00, 1620.00

    Trading recommendations

    Sell Stop 1568.00. Stop-Loss 1586.00. Take-Profit 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00
    Buy Stop 1586.00. Stop-Loss 1568.00. Take-Profit 1600.00, 1620.00


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  8. #638
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    AUD/USD: on the eve of the RBA meeting
    03/02/2020

    The threat of coronavirus spreading outside of China, threatening to grow into an epidemic, brought down global stock indices last week. The World Health Organization last Thursday declared an outbreak of coronavirus infection an emergency of international importance. The number of confirmed coronavirus infected in China over the weekend has grown to nearly 15,000, the number of victims is already 305.
    Given the size of China's GDP, as well as the possible consequences for other countries, the outbreak of the virus seems to be a significant enough reason for concern about the growth prospects of the world economy for the next few months.
    On Tuesday, the RB of Australia makes a decision on the interest rate (the decision on the rate will be published at 03:30 GMT). Probably, the RBA will not yet change its current monetary policy, keeping the rate at a record level of 0.75%. However, this decision will not provide tangible support to the Australian dollar. The risks to Australian economy and the implications for Australian commodity and tourism demand are likely to continue to put pressure on weak growth prospects.
    Thus, the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD are likely to remain under pressure with a tendency to further weaken and reduce, which will speak in favor of their sales.
    At the beginning of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.6690 mark, 10 points above the intraday low of 0.6680. In case of breakdown of the support levels of 0.6680 and 0.6670 (2019 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%) and the resumption of decline, the goals will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
    The negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails, making short positions on the pair more preferable.
    Support Levels: 0.6680, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
    Resistance Levels: 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900, 0.6935

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell Stop 0.6675. Stop-Loss 0.6730. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6300, 0.6260
    Buy Stop 0.6730. Stop-Loss 0.6675. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  9. #639
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    NZD/USD: growth of quotations of commodity currencies may resume
    04/02/2020

    From October to December last year, the NZD / USD pair was in the upward correction period and reached an almost 8-month high near the 0.6755 mark at the end of December.
    However, then NZD / USD fell sharply amid the spread of coronavirus in China threatening to slow down the global economy. The decrease in NZD / USD in January amounted to almost 4%.
    Despite some easing of investors' concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and a resurgent rise in stock indices, commodity currencies, including NZD, are still under pressure.
    On Tuesday, NZD / USD makes an attempt to break the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart passing through the mark of 0.6465.
    Negative dynamics still prevail, and technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend short positions. In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6400, 0.6322 (November lows), 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%), 0.6205 (September lows).
    Today, the volatility in the NZD / USD pair may again increase when data from a dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (a specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT) will be published after 15:00 (GMT). The Dairy Price Index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out two weeks ago with a value of +1.7%. The increase in world prices for dairy products provides additional support to the New Zealand economy, increasing the level of foreign currency export earnings. Forecast for today: the Global Dairy Trade price index for dairy products will come out with a value of +0.9%, which is likely to also support the New Zealand dollar.
    In this case, a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6485 will be the first signal to resume long positions in the NZD / USD pair. A breakdown of the key resistance level of 0.6540 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will again make long positions relevant with targets at the resistance levels of 0.6755 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global pair decline wave with level 0.8820).
    Investor concerns about coronavirus eased somewhat earlier this week, creating a favorable backdrop for renewed growth in global stock indices and commodity prices, as well as commodity currency quotes.
    Support Levels: 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
    Resistance Levels: 0.6485, 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 0.6440. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
    Buy Stop 0.6490. Stop-Loss 0.6440. Take-Profit 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  10. #640
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    S&P 500: indices rise again after falling last week
    05/02/2020

    US stock indexes are actively recovering after falling last week.
    Investors' concerns about the spread of coronavirus in China have declined, and investors returned to assessing the “first phase” trade agreement between the United States and China, signed last month.
    Larry Kudlow, director of the U.S. Presidential National Economic Council, said on Tuesday that the impact of the spread of coronavirus is likely to delay, but not cancel, the support for the US economy expected from the first-phase trade agreement between the USA and China. According to Kudlow, in the longer term, the impact of a virus outbreak will be minimal.
    At the opening of today's European session, futures for major US stock indexes rose sharply.
    On Wednesday, the S&P500 rises for the third day in a row after falling last week and is trading at the beginning of the European session near 3325.0 mark, near the absolute record high reached in December at 3335.0.
    S&P500 maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above key support levels of 3050.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3100.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0) in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts. Their upper border runs near 3370.0. This mark is likely to be the immediate goal of index growth.
    Today in the period from 13:15 to 15:00 (GMT) a block of important macro statistics for the United States will be published. Of most interest will probably be the ADP report on private sector employment. US private sector employment growth is expected in January by +156,000. This is lower than the December figure (+202,000 employees), however, it is also a strong indicator of a labor market, which also indicates the stability of the US economy, which continues to grow amid the risks of a slowdown in the global economy.
    Positive dynamics prevail, pushing indices to new records. Above the support levels 3276.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 3250.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), long positions are preferred.
    Support Levels: 3276.0, 3250.0, 3180.0, 3100.0, 3050.0, 3025.0, 2955.0
    Resistance Levels: 3335.0, 3370.0

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell Stop 3270.0. Stop-Loss 3337.0. Targets 3250.0, 3180.0, 3100.0, 3050.0
    Buy Stop 3337.0. Stop-Loss 3270.0. Goals 3350.0, 3370.0, 3400.0


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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