Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 2, 2017

The EUR/USD pair waited for the FOMC minutes throughout the trading day on Wednesday, the minutes are expected to be issued during the American session. Aside from this pair, there are other many currency pairs that desire to know the thoughts of Fed members regarding the future rate hikes with expectations to help them determine the short-term trend for the U.S dollar.

This ensures that the single European currency was fixed in a very tight range at 30 pips, while markets in a long position understand that any choppy movement would lead to an unprofitable trade. Since the focus is centered on the positioning of trades prior the major news events coupled with large trends once the news was issued.
It became more interesting due to the subsequent news later this week which has equal of importance with concerns of the greens. It further opened the door for the possible reversal by the FOMC with the approaching news events.

The FOMC failed to achieve its target, however, most of the text remained unchanged, particularly the talks of future outlook that came in lower than market expectations. This resulted in a sudden minor shock for the USD, met some buying and pushed the bucks to a tight range until the end of the course after the minute's publication.
Considering all the projections formulated the entire day, the minutes conversely disappointed the markets which further triggered choppy data by means of the ADP report released earlier the day.

There are reports that confirmed Jerome Powell as the next head of the Fed Reserve but caused the dollar to weaken later this day, nevertheless, the effect of this news would likely be temporary.

Ultimately, the attention was turned towards the British pound as there are no releases from the United States or the European region for today. Hence, it is safe to say that there is some tight ranging and consolidation within the euro-dollar pair amid the trading day while waiting for the US employment statistics tomorrow which could roughly confirm the rate increase in December.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2017

The GBP/USD softened during the trading course on Tuesday and it closed the day with choppiness with regards the British pound. The sterling lost its strength in the morning and successfully regained its entire losses until the closing of the day. As of this writing, the GBP is trading comfortably on top of the 1.3150 level. The rebound muddled the scenario relative to the direction of the British currency.

On one hand, the American dollar appears to remain unchanged throughout the course yesterday. US President Donald Trump is currently on a trip to different Asian countries, the twitter seems to be a good venue since Trump is outside US and sarcastic comments are not present also during this period. Therefore, it bolstered the greenbacks to maintains its position. The dollar received further support from the finishing touches on tax reform plan as the program is going through various stages. The pound was mainly bullish followed by a decline from the last fall that occurred during the BOE rate hike, however, it gave a gloomy economic perspective.

Despite the 2 cents decrease of the sterling on that day, it was able to recover within the day and worked out to acquire additional cent from the price on the same day. This indicates bullish signals towards the GBP while the market is worried about eliminating chances for more rate increase and starts to recede slowly.

Ultimately, both the United Kingdom and the United States will not release any major economic data throughout the day. Bullishness is expected to prevail amid the day. An increase from the Cable pair has the tendency to weaken and remained steady but the price could lead the price higher in the short term.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 9, 2017

The British currency declined throughout the trading day on Wednesday as fears continue to influence the sterling relative to the Brexit negotiations, as well as the potential of Britain to maintain its economic stability during this period. The GBP went down to the 1.31 level for a short period of time prior the rebound from that point, which allowed the currency to close the day over the 1.31 mark but remained to be weak as of this moment.

Another reason for the decline of the GBPUSD is the continuous dollar strengthening that boosted the discussion on the tax reform bill. The U.S. dollar trades with little strength since the approval of the tax bill by President Donald Trump and his team. However, the confirmation is not yet through since it is currently brought into law while there are reports about the possible delay of the actual implementation. On the other hand, some say that Trump will not allow this to happen amid the uncertainties regarding this matter that would likely influence the greenbacks in the near-term.

Moreover, the GBP was supported by the entire talks concerning the slow Brexit process which continued to bog down every single day. The sterling was also affected by the pessimistic UK economic outlook brought by the latest rate announcement by the BOE, this could possibly be the reason for the continuous trading near the range lows by the Cable pair despite rate increase. Aside from the fact that the market priced in the rate hike, it further expects more from the Bank of England but the bank did not provide some positive statement that put pressure on the pound.

Ultimately, the United States or the United Kingdom will not release any major report. Therefore, consolidation is projected on either side of 1.31 mark throughout the day. The support came in at 1.31 region which is very strong along with sudden bounces which indicates that the pound is not subjected to any decline sooner or later.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2017

The single European currency paired with the U.S. dollar drove higher during Thursday session since the trade surplus in Germany has expanded, while the U.S. initial claims rebounded. Moreover, the German growth is predicted to overcome its previous outlook as the inflation is projected to remain muted capping the upside in the pair.

The EURUSD had moved upwards and pushed back on top of the 1.1625 level near around the 10-day moving average, which serves as a support in the short-term. Further support hits the 1.1550 weekly lows. A close over the 1.17 region could possibly negate the formation and triggered consolidation. The negative momentum was seen declining as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator is printing in the red, linked with an ascending trajectory that gives signs of consolidation.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2017

The EUR/USD pair had been moving unsteadily in the past few days as the pair moves up and down with high volatility as the greenback moves without a specific direction in the present global tone. The dollar is appealing to be bought in the short term yet the market maybe thinking twice. Although, there are instances where the rally of the dollar where it is being sold at a faster rate.

This maintains the pressure in the dollar and which would be advantageous for the euro. What’s keeping the market optimistic for the dollar is a rate hike from the Fed in December although, the market does not strongly believe this. There are no specific indications yet with indecisiveness of Fed members while the data move at a steady pace.

This has kept the dollar weak with any news or data to be released. In the past 24 hours, the euro decline to the area of 1.1750 which is seen to move down in general. The latest relevant news would be the continuation of the development of missiles from North Korea and the ongoing investigation on the accusation of Russian intervention in the US Presidential elections. These events would drive the dollar down.

For today, the speech of Draghi are expected during the London session but it is unlikely that he would discuss the monetary policy. Hence, traders should get ready for choppiness in trading this pair and be cautious in the liquidity of the pair.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 20, 2017

The British pound persisted to move at a fixed rate but it is the opposite to the euro currency because of the news from German coalition talks. The pound has taken advantage of the low dollar as it rose to 1.32 level. However, it is still to be observed if this move higher.

The latest news from Germany will most likely affect the British pound as well as other countries of the Eurozone with the ongoing Brexit talk. Thinking about it, the current situation facing Merkel in Germany may be similar with U.K. Prime minister Theresa May as she also fights her own battle. However, it should be considered that any changes to cause uncertainty would most likely affect the Brexit as well. This will not be favorable to Germany or U.K. Nevertheless, both countries would want a good transition and come to a conclusion that would be beneficial for both ends.

Any uncertainty in Germany would slow down the talks and look forward to an agreement which could complicate more things further and be disadvantageous for the pound in long-term. Aggressive leaders are best suited in the current situation as they are looking for a conclusion. However, some domestic concerns are hampering the process which gets their attention. For short term, the British pound could have some gains because of uncertainty from Germany. However, this could have a negative impact on the U.K. for the long term if this situation is prolonged.

For today, the British pound seems to be put under pressure as it depreciates against euro during the London session. There is no major news from the U.S. or from the U.K. in other times of the day. Consequently, the consolidation with a bearish tone is anticipated to take place today.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2017

The British currency had slightly whipsawed amid the daytime trading and closed the day with an unchanged position which appeared to be hardly affected by the subsequent events happened in Germany. The United Kingdom is currently dealing with ongoing issues on economy and politics, as the pound could possibly be swayed. Moreover, there are more concerns that the country needs to deal with instead of other matters related to the European region.

The sterling could possibly get a short-term and limited benefit because of the problems in Germany. It could also soften the German position as well as the EU leaders due to Brexit talks, however, brought temporary relief for the team of PM Theresa May. Nevertheless, whatever kind of benefit they could acquire from this is expected to be short-lived due to its endless process and either side will move towards on their planned position due to domestic concerns from their countries, respectively. Eventually, the market might realize this which could be the reason that after the initial sway, the GBP was able to adjust based on reality and closed the day nearly unchanged.

The economic data from the United Kingdom remains choppy which would likely trigger concerns for the Bank of England. Meanwhile, the struggle of PM May to deal with her political woes continues which shifted her focus from the Brexit. Considering the events in Germany, the process became dull and complicated which is unacceptable for both sides.

Ultimately, there are no major releases from the United States but Britain will have its inflation report hearings which should be monitored in order to have a clearer picture for the economy and inflation that could possibly have a large impact towards the timeline of the next rate increase.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 22, 2017

The GBP/USD pair remains trading in a tight manner since yesterday, which is similar to the market’s activity. After dealing with high volatility on Monday, the traders were able to prepare themselves for a greater battle beforehand which was actually marked by the ranges that reduced over time. While the market is currently waiting for future events that will take place.
According to projections, this week would be a busy time for pound traders due to some positive actions and sudden stabilization of the sterling amid the issues on domestic politics and other foreign concerns in the wake of uncertainties in Germany.
None of these were able to bring an impact against the GBP so far, as the British currency continuously trading in a robust manner for this week. This is expected to be put to test for today due to some major economic releases scheduled from the United States and the United Kingdom.

In Britain, the autumn forecast statement to be issued during the late London session will essentially provide assumptions regarding the current status of the economy and will also give future events of the economy. This data is annually published which could also possibly provide hints about the considerations of the Bank of England regarding inflation and rate increase in the first half of 2018. Hence, any signs of hawkishness within this report is expected to move the sterling to the 1.34 level.

In the American session later will be releasing the FOMC minutes that is highly anticipated by the market in order to determine the Fed’s decision towards rate hike next month. There is high chance that the Federal Reserve will allow the raise in December, however, the markets are waiting for some confirmation signal along with the timeline of the rate increase. The pound will experience a very volatile day.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2017

The EUR/USD pair anticipated to have fluctuations from the market but turned as the FOMC minutes is anticipated for the incoming long weekend. There is an active trading activity in the market instead of the anticipated fewer ones. The dollar has lost its leverages and was moving slower over the course of the day. The trend only gained a better traction after the release of the
FOMC minutes.

The EUR/USD pair moves higher than the area of 1.1750 in a subtle manner with dimmed the activity that happens prior to the release of the FOMC minutes. There is not much anticipated from the market since the Fed is presumed to maintain its current stance, most especially that the rate hike in December will most likely push through. The euro moved slightly higher at the beginning of the day and proceed to move up during the course of the day.

The FOMC minutes gave a dovish tone which is not surprising. The rate in December has almost already priced in the market although the market is more focused on the possibility of a further rate hike. There are some members who think that the rate hike has not reached the target mark which could lead to another rate hike but it is also unlikely unless the inflation has improved along with the incoming data. Consequently, the dovishness of the dollar resulted in an increase of the pair towards the area of 1.18 which is seen to hover steadily above this as of the moment.

Today is the start long weekend in the US on account of Thanksgiving and there will be no economic news anticipated to be released from the U.S. as well as from the Eurozone. Traders should anticipate consolidation in the trend with a bullish tone for the rest of the day.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 27, 2017

The British pound is trying to make use of the situation which has been surging in the past few days as the dollar has weakened. This began after the FOMC minutes released a surprising dovish statement that supported the GBP/USD pair and rallies since then. This is yet to be observed if this rally will last.

Most of the traders are ambivalent of this uptrend since this happened due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. After the holiday, a correction was observed given that traders are going back following a long weekend and investors are gaining some profits where it makes the minutes not a dovish sentiment. This could result in buying of the dollars which would further induce correction in trading.

Other than that, Brexit is in a difficult situation right now and if anything happens, a massive breakthrough is anticipated in the talks in the few weeks to come. There are some investors who assume that the U.K. would choose to cancel the deal if they will not benefit from it. If this is the case, then Britain would be on a losing end for the economy. Hence, the pound would most likely continue its rally with the ongoing matter on Brexit.

There is no major news from the U.K. or the U.S anticipated to come out today. Consequently, it is likely to have some consolidation during the first half of the day. There may be some correction for the day when traders go back to the U.S. from their holidays.