Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

bTechnical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 25, 2016/b

After the Australian dollar shot up to a 10-month high last week at 0.7834, it entered a bearish weekend and is still extending losses. The exchange rate is now at 0.7716 although it posted a day high of 0.7728 earlier which was almost immediately trimmed.

The AUD has the rising commodity prices and a generally weak USD to reverse the uptrend, but we are expecting the losses to extend at least until the Q1 CPI on Tuesday. Exports and imports figures will be published on Wednesday. RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle will also deliver a speech on Thursday that may foreshadow the direction of future monetary policies.

The highlight this week is the Feds announcement on Wednesday about its interest rates. Consumer confidence is also due on Tuesday.

The first support is at 0.7661 and 0.7622 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7743 and 0.7781 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The price is rising.

Australian markets are on a break today as it celebrates the Anzac day.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 25, 2018



The US dollar has a mixed sentiment during the North American hours after the recent update of Draghi on the EU parliament giving a transitory hawkish decision which pushed the pair down to 1.18, implying recovery of the market from the “underlying inflation” amid progressive labor market and some signals of shortages. Hence, this supports the ECB anticipations of higher wages. The price of the euro rose to a three-month high of 1.1815 from 1.1750 on Draghi’s speech. However, a few hours after that, the ECB chief undermined his own bullish rhetorics on inflation, adding more potential outcomes on protectionism, Perhaps, this can be because of recent fiscal plans in Italy prior to the FOMC later on. The major euro pair was affected by increasing Treasury yields and large outside day Doji candle on Monday.

On the technical aspect, the pair did not succeed again in maintaining the level above 1.1800 and close higher than 38.2% Fibonacci retracement in the range of 1.2556-1.1301. The decline implies there is not enough momentum. An appropriate breakdown lower than the support of 1.1725, which was previously a resistance, that could lead to a further decline below 1.1700 and help the strengthen the expectations. Meanwhile, the level of 1.1780 has strengthened and followed to 1.1800. If the price maintained higher than the boundary, the price is likely to extend the growth towards the June monthly-high resistance around the middle of 1.1800.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 26, 2018



The euro attempted for a rally higher than the level of 1.18 for some time but doesn’t succeed, which can be because of the upcoming FOMC statement. Traders are uncertain whether to place money on this situation. It is likely for the dollar to become the focal point in the next few days. Other than that, there is also the issue of Italy with the European Union. Hence, there is a chance for a breakout at the level of 1.18 and further towards 1.20, which is the initial target as it is an important level, as well as, in the past.

In case of a pullback, there may be a chance for the bullish traders to enter at a cheaper price as the level of 1.1725 is a little supportive. Nevertheless, the pair will probably break higher but needs some kind of a momentum if the decision of the FOMC becomes less hawkish than the forecast. Although this is just a probability, this event will largely affect the US dollar. Traders are trying to overlook the global trade fears, traders will still be able to bid on this pair.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 27, 2018



The euro major pair decline towards 1.1725 prior to the expected FOMC statement. Sad to say, we really can’t tell the future movement since most traders are waiting on the sidelines. Trading on news activity has already passed, especially on the retail side. However, traders can make its decision for long-term after the announcement. It will probably go beyond the level of 1.18 or not at the end of the session. If so, a breakout is possible and reach the level of 1.20 or higher.

If the price breaks lower than 1.17, there is a chance for a further decline of 1.15. A lot of volatility is also anticipated in long-term and a chance for a breakout if given sufficient time. However, it doesn’t mean it will not be difficult and a chance that the price can stay within the consolidation area for long-term. Recently, there are some hindrances in the bullish pressure but eventually, the outcome will likely be a breakout. This propels the price towards the next level of 1.0, which was important previously.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 28, 2018



The euro against the US dollar resumes its bearish trend during the North American session, losing almost 100 pips as the day closed as low as 1.1633 despite minimal activity in the night of market hours. After the macroeconomic report from the US, the US demand surged, which is gaining momentum against the rival currencies since Wednesday of FOMC announcement and largely influenced USD denominated currency pairs. The real-GDP growth in the U.S. for the second quarter remains the same at 4.2% and durable goods orders rose by 4.5% in August after the decline of 1.2% in July. The price resumed going down lower than 1.165 in the first few hours of Asian trading. Which then sustain the price range-bound.

Although, the recent announcement did not do much from the recovery of losses. Consequently, this could boost the spread between the 10-year Italian government bond yield and its German equivalent, which will further strengthen the bearish trend. Moreover, if the yield spread rises as expected, the market will less likely focus on the preliminary Eurozone CPI to be published at 9.00 GMT. Another to expect, the US markets can anticipate the data on the core of PCE price index, which is the main measurement of inflation. Yet, recently, the support at 1.1640 is critically tested. A strong breakdown at the said level, the pair could extend its losses to 1.1570-1.1500 while a short-term resistance can be found at 1.1665, 1.1755 and 1.1815 price levels.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 1, 2018



For the past few weeks, the US dollar has further risen as profits are gained during the first half of the year. Although, investors who have been closely monitoring the market, this did not come in surprising for them and they know that this relies on their hands. However, the decline of the EUR/USD pair has been strongly resistive or has been moving everywhere in the past few months.

However, instead of a quick decline, a slow drop is apparent in the trend and it looks like the euro can be able to sustain trading higher than 1.10 and continues to reach higher. The level of 1.15 to 1.16 will become a significant level on the daily chart and starting a large head and shoulder within the area where the rate was on August 15. This shows that there is a chance for a bullish momentum to establish as the end on the year approaches as long as the shoulders proceed to sustain this trend.

On the headline, there is nothing to expect much for the greenback in the coming days since there were already laid out in the market and the dollar has already established its rates in relation to trade wars. At the same time, the Fed raised their rates as to how the market expected it. Hence, the market is expecting largely of it and failing not to meet will just otherwise being a disappointment to the market. However, it might not be long for the trend to be reversed and provide chances for the bulls to return because of the headlines.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 2, 2018



The euro declined in the past few days while maintaining the trading range during the Monday session. A lot of support is offered below and the level of 1.15 offers some but right now, there is not much of a momentum.

After a breakdown for the past days, it is logical and it needs some break as it moves around the level of 1.16. The market will try to gain some momentum but it will not be surprising for the price to go lower before finding a lot of buying pressure, especially close to the level of 1.15 which was massively supportive in the past few months. The price shifting between 1.15 and 1.18, despite of a breakdown, there is no significant change over it.

A massive support level is apparent just below the level of 1.15 on the weekly long-term charts and needed a strong breakdown to pass through, which will likely limit the current downtrend. As of now, I am aiming to buy the pair but at a much lower area if the trend allows. On the contrary, in case it breaks higher than 1.1650, the price could return to the level of 1.18.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 3, 2018



The euro declined in the past few days while maintaining the trading range during the Monday session. A lot of support is offered below and the level of 1.15 offers some but right now, there is not much of a momentum.

After a breakdown for the past days, it is logical and it needs some break as it moves around the level of 1.16. The market will try to gain some momentum but it will not be surprising for the price to go lower before finding a lot of buying pressure, especially close to the level of 1.15 which was massively supportive in the past few months. The price shifting between 1.15 and 1.18, despite a breakdown, there is no significant change over it.

A massive support level is apparent just below the level of 1.15 on the weekly long-term charts and needed a strong breakdown to pass through, which will likely limit the current downtrend. As of now, I am aiming to buy the pair but at a much lower area if the trend allows. On the contrary, in case it breaks higher than 1.1650, the price could return to the level of 1.18.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 4, 2018



The euro rallied at the beginning of Wednesday session after the news announcement of Italy having less than 2% budget deficit by 2021. It has eased the tension between Italy in the European Union for quite a bit and being optimism in the market. Yet, if volatility continues in the pair, we should focus on various movements at the same time. The Federal Reserve is aiming to raise the interest rate for different time in more than a year or so which will have an impact to this pair. Nonetheless, the level of 1.15 offers to be significant and it will not be surprising for this price to be important after some time.

There is a lot of consolidation in the past few months and the trend is expected to move back and forth making the euro at a lower price. However, it does not show that the price would not decline but this implies a lot of value hunting in the pair. Traders should look into the formation of the lower price unless the price moves above the low from the previous trading session, it shows the price to form a new trend on the upside and probably move towards 1.18 as it has in the past.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 5, 2018



The EUR/USD pair recovered by the end of the London session and the bulls were able to sustain gains yesterday. In the early Asian session, the greenback has gained momentum for a short while it seems that the euro bulls are not on the lead after its breakthrough to the support level of 1.15 even before the start of the London session. Amid all the headlines and reports, the euro is likely to face more problems and further decline.

However, this did not happen as the currency was able to recover from the lows of the range which pushed the pair to further go up towards the 1.15 soon enough. In the meantime, this weakened the bullishness of the dollar and importantly considering the bullish sentiment of the dollar. From here on, we could wait for the next activity and majority of the news about to be published from the US and expect some form of volatility.

It may be wise for traders to wait until the reports are released and everything settled before choosing a decision on the next direction of the dollar. As for the euro, it looks stable for now while the focus of the market is on the Fed. Both the dollar and Trump are expected to affect the market for short-term. The recovery gives hope to the dollar bulls for short-term and probably take the lead in trading in the few days to come. However, as of the moment, the market sentiment shows a neutral trading.