Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

US Market News Digest for June 26

Trump pushes S&P 500 toward record highs
Donald Trump is fueling gains in the S&P 500, driving the index toward all-time highs amid political stability and market optimism.

However, analysts warn that current elevated stock valuations may only prove sustainable with significant earnings growth. This puts pressure on companies to outperform expectations and justify current market levels.

US indices show mixed performance
US stock indices closed mixed: modest gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq offset losses in the Dow Jones. Markets remain sensitive to the Fed's rhetoric as rate-cut prospects weigh on the dollar and bond yields.

Amid the uncertainty, investors are rotating into rate-sensitive sectors.

Tech sector lifts market despite selective weakness
Investors maintain cautious optimism as technology stocks continue their steady advance, bolstering the Nasdaq.

Despite strong sector earnings, Tesla and FedEx shares face pressure following disappointing guidance. The broader uptrend persists, though single-stock volatility underscores lingering risks.

Nvidia tops global valuation rankings
Nvidia shares hit a record high, crowning the chipmaker as the world's most valuable company with $3.77 trillion market cap. While AI chip demand remains robust, analysts flag potential risks from export controls.

The stock's future performance may serve as a bellwether for broader tech sentiment.

Market on pause: profit-taking possible
The S&P 500 stalled near annual highs amid uncertain momentum and falling bond yields. Investor caution suggests potential profit-taking that could lead to a local correction.

Upcoming economic reports are expected to determine the next market direction.

Futures gain on macroeconomic optimism
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures advanced amid positive Iran negotiation developments and favorable macro data.

Investors are betting on further market gains despite lingering external risks. Stable corporate earnings and easing inflation expectations are boosting risk appetite.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is drawing renewed selling interest today after breaking below the key $3300 level. Traders are awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is viewed as a crucial indicator for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. These figures are expected to significantly influence the short-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar and, by extension, the price of gold.

Despite some optimism around a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran and a broader risk-on sentiment diverting investors away from safe-haven assets, concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and prevailing bearish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar may help limit the downside for gold. Notably, data released yesterday showed that the U.S. economy contracted more than expected in the first quarter. This reinforces expectations of Fed rate cuts and keeps the dollar subdued near multi-year lows, indirectly supporting demand for gold as a defensive asset.

Earlier this week, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve is in a favorable position to delay interest rate cuts until it has better control over the inflationary impact of high tariffs. These remarks drew renewed criticism from President Donald Trump, who again called for lower rates and even hinted at the possibility of replacing Powell as early as September or October.

Such developments raise concerns about potential threats to the Fed's independence and may limit any positive reaction of the U.S. dollar to upcoming inflation data. As a result, gold prices are unlikely to experience a sharp and sustained decline.

From a technical perspective, today's intraday drop below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart could be viewed as a fresh trigger for sellers. Given that daily chart oscillators are gaining downside momentum, the precious metal could accelerate its decline toward the $3245 level, with further support seen at the horizontal level of $3210, the psychological $3200 mark, and potentially the $3175 level.

On the other hand, the $3324–3325 level is acting as immediate resistance, ahead of the $3350 level. Above that, further resistance lies near $3368–3370, which could limit additional gains. However, a sustained move above this range would allow XAU/USD to revisit the $3400 level. Continued buying interest beyond that point would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift momentum in favor of the bulls.

The main events by the morning: June 30

Trump will appoint only a candidate willing to lower interest rates as the new head of the Federal Reserve System. He criticized the current chairman, Jerome Powell, calling him a «stubborn ass» and expressing hope for his resignation, although Powell's term expires in May 2026. Currently, the Fed is keeping the rate at 4.25-4.5%, but Trump insists on a significant reduction.

The United States lifted sanctions against Russia regarding the Paks-2 NPP project in Hungary. This was stated by the country's Foreign Minister Szijjarto. The construction of the station can be continued. Recall that in November 2024, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Gazprombank, through which the project was financed.

Canada has made concessions to the United States in the trade war. The country will abolish the digital services tax against American companies ahead of an expected deal with the United States. Negotiations on the trade agreement are scheduled to resume by July 21.

All G7 countries are ready to make concessions to the Trump administration. They agreed on Saturday to exempt American companies from certain provisions of the existing global tax agreement. The G7 said the plan recognizes existing U.S. minimum tax laws and aims to increase the stability of the international tax system.

South Korea postponed the digital won pilot due to costs and lack of a commercialization plan. Instead, the Central Bank will focus on regulating stablecoins linked to won in order to reduce dependence on dollar tokens and preserve financial sovereignty. The eight largest banks are already working on the creation of such a stablecoin, and the issue will be controlled through licensed banks to protect the economy.

The main events by the morning: July 1

The United States has threatened Japan with higher tariffs if it does not restore its rice purchases. In 2024, Japan purchased rice from the United States for $298 million, but in the first four months of 2025 — only for $114 million. Donald Trump said that Tokyo refused to purchase rice despite the shortage in the country. At the same time, official comments from the Japanese government have not yet been received.

Shares of Tesla Inc declined significantly amid the escalation of the conflict between Trump and Elon Musk. Trump has publicly criticized Musk, saying he benefits excessively from government subsidies, and called for a review of federal support provided to Tesla. According to over-the-counter trading on the Robinhood platform, Tesla quotes decreased by 6.4% to the level of $297.35.

Canada has started exporting LNG – Shell Canada Energy has shipped its first LNG cargo from the LNG Canada project to Asia. The Kitimat plant is the first major North American LNG project with access to the Pacific Ocean. LNG Canada is a joint venture that includes several companies, and its capacity is 14 million tons per year. The project is considered the largest private investment in the Canadian economy, with a construction cost of about 40 billion Canadian dollars (approximately $29.4 billion).

Trump has signed a memorandum toughening American policy towards Cuba. The document establishes a ban on tourist trips by US citizens to the island, confirms support for the current economic embargo, and also provides for active opposition to attempts to lift it at international forums, including the United Nations. Cuba's foreign minister reacted sharply to the measures, calling Washington's actions «criminal behavior.»

The main events by the morning: July 2

The Iranian President has signed a decree suspending cooperation with the IAEA. According to the document, the agency's employees are temporarily banned from entering the country. The decision is justified by the need to ensure the safety of Iranian nuclear facilities and specialists in the field of nuclear energy. Thus, the control by the international agency has actually been suspended, which may pave the way for the unrestricted development of the Iranian nuclear program.

Germany and the UK are close to signing an extensive mutual assistance agreement. The text of the agreement is almost agreed upon, and the document can be signed before July 17. The treaty will confirm Berlin and London's commitment to the NATO alliance as the main pillar of their collective defense.

Google faced a fine of $314 million in connection with the illegal use of Android user data. Consumers claimed that Google programmed Android phones to transmit data to Google servers when users were not connected to a Wi-Fi network. The corporation used this information «to promote its corporate interests.»

Azerbaijan continues to ruin relations with Russia. The country suspended negotiations with the Russian Federation on a number of major economic agreements and officially accused Russia of torture and violation of international law. Russian-language schools are also being closed in Azerbaijan. It is reported that this decision is aimed at strengthening the position of the Azerbaijani language as the main language of education and integrating all citizens into a single educational environment.

Hong Kong claims to be the first in the world in terms of IPO volume. In 2025, Hong Kong may surpass New York in terms of initial public offerings. Since the beginning of the year, IPOs on the local stock exchange have raised HK$107 billion, an increase of 701%. Up to 100 placements worth up to $28 billion are expected by the end of the year. Geopolitics, the activation of Chinese companies, and the flow of capital from the United States have made Hong Kong a popular destination again.
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XAU/USD. Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

Gold is maintaining a bearish intraday tone today.Oscillators on the daily chart are just beginning to show negative momentum, indicating the potential for further declines in the metal's price.

The XAU/USD pair has repeatedly failed to break above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, leading to a drop in price to the $3300 level. This development is viewed as a renewed signal of bearish sentiment in the gold market. In this case, the price may accelerate its decline toward the next support near $3270, followed by a continued drop into the $3245–3248 level.

On the other hand, the $3324–3325 area—where the 50-period SMA lies—serves as the nearest resistance before a stronger zone around $3342–3343, which aligns with the 200-period SMA. If buyers manage to break through these levels and consolidate above the $3350–3352 level—where the 100-period SMA is located—this would open the door for further gains in the precious metal. In such a scenario, bulls could aim for a return to the psychological $3400 level.
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Trade storm over Asia: Japan, Korea face 25% tariff hit

Asian Markets Show Cautious Optimism Amid US Tariff Maneuvers
Asian stock exchanges responded with mild enthusiasm following the latest move by US President Donald Trump to ramp up import tariffs. Meanwhile, the US dollar held steady and oil prices slipped slightly.

Trump's Tariff Notices Shake Wall Street
Wall Street took a downturn after Trump sent formal notifications to 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, announcing sharp increases in import duties. The tariff hikes were deferred until August 1, giving markets temporary breathing room.

Japan Reacts as Trump Leaves Door Open
Japan's Nikkei index initially slipped but later recovered, buoyed by Trump's comment that the deadline was "firm, but not set in stone," implying that revisions might be possible for selected nations.

Australian Dollar Jumps on Unexpected Rate Hold
Australia's currency surged after the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly decided to leave interest rates unchanged, defying widespread forecasts of a cut.

Markets Wary After Previous U-turns
According to Tapas Strickland of National Australia Bank, investors reacted with caution, remembering Trump's earlier rollback of his so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs initially scheduled for April 2.

Limited Trade Deals and a Fragile Peace with China
Back in April, the US capped reciprocal tariffs at 10 percent through July 9 to allow time for negotiations. However, only two agreements were reached — with the UK and Vietnam. A tentative framework was also established with China in June, offering a glimmer of stability in the ongoing trade conflict.

Currency Watch: Dollar Edges Higher
The US dollar rose 0.1 percent to 145.88 yen, hitting a two-week high. The euro climbed 0.3 percent to 1.1744 dollars, while the Australian dollar advanced 0.8 percent to 0.6541 dollars.

Australia Surprises Markets by Holding Interest Rate Steady
In an unexpected decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.85 percent, catching markets off guard. The majority of board members expressed the need for further data confirming a sustained decline in inflation before considering any adjustments.

Oil and Gold Retreat After Early Gains
Commodities saw moderate losses. US crude oil fell by 0.5 percent to 67.61 dollars per barrel after nearly two percent growth on Monday. Spot gold slipped by 0.2 percent, continuing a cautious trend.

European Futures Dip Amid Uncertainty
Futures on major European indices pointed downward. Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany's DAX both declined by 0.2 percent, while UK's FTSE dropped by 0.4 percent.

Trump's Tariff Message: New Pressure on Trade Partners
On Monday, President Donald Trump sent letters to 14 nations — including Japan and South Korea — warning of substantial tariff hikes on goods imported into the United States. These changes are scheduled to take effect on August 1. The original July 9 deadline for trade deals was postponed, though Trump noted that the new date could be flexible if countries present compelling counteroffers.

EU Not Yet Targeted
According to sources within the European Union, the bloc has not received any such letters from Washington. Meanwhile, EU officials are evaluating the possibility of securing exemptions from the standard US tariff rate of 10 percent.

Sector Reaction: Real Estate Falls, Resources Rise
In response to the shifting landscape, European real estate stocks dropped by 0.6 percent, while shares of companies in the basic resources sector climbed by 0.7 percent.

ArgenX Stock Rises After Deutsche Bank Upgrade
Shares of Belgian biotech company ArgenX climbed 1.4 percent after Deutsche Bank revised its outlook on the stock from hold to buy. The upgrade sparked renewed investor interest and gave the company's market position a notable boost.

German Exports Dip as US Demand Softens
Germany's export figures fell more than anticipated in May, with a second consecutive month of reduced demand from the United States. Analysts attribute the downturn to a slowdown in orders after an earlier surge in purchases ahead of expected US tariffs.

Gold Stays Flat, Pulled Between Safe-Haven Demand and Rising Yields
Gold prices hovered near unchanged levels on Tuesday as investors balanced safe-haven interest, driven by rising trade tensions, against higher yields on US Treasuries, which tend to dampen gold's appeal.

Spot gold edged down by 0.1 percent to 3331.85 dollars per ounce as of 0612 GMT. US gold futures were largely stable at 3341.80 dollars.

Trump Escalates Tariff Pressure with August Deadline
President Donald Trump has officially notified several trade partners — including Japan and South Korea — of a new round of tariff increases set to begin on August 1. The move marks an intensification of the tariff campaign launched earlier this year, with some imports facing a 25 percent duty.

Bond Yields Rise, Pressuring Gold
Benchmark ten-year US Treasury yields hovered near a two-week high, making bonds more attractive to investors seeking returns. The resulting opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold has limited bullion's upward movement.

China Sends Warning Shot to Trump: Retaliation Is on the Table
Beijing has issued a firm warning to the Trump administration, cautioning that the planned reimposition of tariffs on Chinese goods next month could reignite trade hostilities. In addition, China threatened retaliatory measures against any countries that enter into deals with the United States aimed at cutting China out of global supply networks.

Inflation Concerns Cloud Fed's Rate Path
The prospect of renewed tariffs has intensified fears about rising inflation, further complicating the Federal Reserve's already delicate path toward lowering interest rates. Uncertainty continues to weigh on monetary policy decisions.

Markets Await Fed's June Meeting Minutes
Investors are focused on the upcoming release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. The document is expected to shed light on the central bank's outlook and offer clues about future interest rate adjustments.

Precious Metals: Little Movement, Selective Gains
Precious metal prices showed limited volatility. Spot silver held steady at 36.75 dollars per ounce. Platinum dipped by 0.1 percent to 1368.93 dollars, while palladium edged up by 0.2 percent to reach 1112.88 dollars.
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Trump Back in Action: 50% Copper Tariff, More Blows to China, EU

Trump Escalates Trade War: Copper, Semiconductors, and Pharmaceuticals Targeted in New Tariff Push
In a sharp new turn in U.S. trade policy, former President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday a 50 percent tariff on imported copper and signaled the imminent rollout of long-threatened duties on semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. These measures mark a significant escalation in a global trade confrontation that has already unsettled international markets.

Fresh Pressure: 14 Nations Receive New Tariff Warnings
Just one day after sending official tariff notices to 14 trading partners — including key allies such as South Korea and Japan — Trump doubled down on his threat to impose 10 percent tariffs on goods from BRICS countries, naming Brazil and India among the targets.

Negotiations Continue, But More Tariffs on the Horizon
Although Trump described ongoing trade talks with the European Union and China as productive, he also revealed plans to send another tariff warning to the EU within days, suggesting that the negotiations may not shield allies from future economic penalties.

Copper Surges, Pharma Stocks Slide
Market reactions were swift. U.S. copper futures surged more than 10 percent following Trump's announcement. The spike reflects the critical role copper plays in electric vehicles, defense technology, and national infrastructure. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical stocks fell after Trump threatened to impose a 200 percent duty on imported medicines — though he noted such a move might be delayed by up to a year.

Tariff Burden Hits 90-Year High
According to Yale Budget Lab analysts, the latest wave of tariffs will raise the effective average import duty paid by U.S. consumers to 17.6 percent. This figure surpasses the previous high of 15.8 percent, making it the steepest tariff burden seen in nearly a century.

Tariffs Portrayed as a Major Revenue Stream
The Trump administration is promoting the latest wave of tariffs as a significant boost to federal income. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported that the U.S. has already collected around 100 billion dollars, with expectations to reach 300 billion by year-end. In contrast, tariff revenue in recent years had hovered near 80 billion annually.

EU Races to Strike a Deal Before August
The European Union, America's largest bilateral trading partner, is working against the clock to finalize a trade agreement by August 1. Brussels is aiming to secure concessions for key export sectors, such as aerospace, medical devices, and alcoholic beverages. There is also ongoing discussion about a separate accord to shield European carmakers with production bases in the United States.

Dollar Climbs, Copper Hits New High
As tensions rise in the global trade arena, the U.S. dollar edged toward a two-and-a-half-week high against major currencies. Meanwhile, copper prices surged to an all-time record following Trump's announcement of a 50 percent import tariff on the critical industrial metal.

Semiconductors and Pharma in the Crosshairs

Wall Street came under pressure Tuesday after Trump signaled looming tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. By Wednesday, futures continued to point downward, highlighting increased investor anxiety over new trade disruptions in vital sectors like tech and healthcare.

Asia Reacts Cautiously Amid Tariff Deadline Uncertainty
Asian-Pacific stock markets delivered mixed performances midweek as investors assessed the fallout from Trump's latest statements. Japan and South Korea, both major U.S. trading partners, face the threat of new duties unless a deal is reached by August 1. Yet Trump has given conflicting signals about whether that date is firm or negotiable.

Asian Markets Diverge: Tokyo and Seoul Gain While Sydney and Hong Kong Slip
Asian stock exchanges showed mixed results on Wednesday. Japan's Nikkei index rose by 0.3 percent, South Korea's KOSPI climbed 0.5 percent, and mainland China's CSI300 added 0.3 percent. In contrast, Australia's main index dropped 0.5 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.7 percent.

Cautious Optimism in Europe and Wall Street
European markets opened slightly higher, with STOXX 50 futures up by 0.3 percent. In the U.S., S&P 500 futures edged down 0.1 percent, following a similar drop on Tuesday, which extended the early-week decline of 0.8 percent. Investors appear hesitant amid trade uncertainty.

Copper Retreats After Sudden Tariff Risk
Copper futures in both Shanghai and London declined as traders scrambled to adjust to Trump's abrupt announcement of new tariffs. The potential logistical challenges of meeting U.S. demand have injected volatility into the commodities market.

Pharmaceutical Sector Faces Tariff Threat
Trump reiterated the possibility of slapping a 200 percent tariff on imported pharmaceuticals. While he suggested the measure could be postponed for up to a year, the prospect alone has added pressure to healthcare markets.

Dollar Reaches New Heights
The U.S. dollar extended its recent rally, touching 147.19 yen, its strongest level since June 20. The broader dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major counterparts, climbed to 97.602, approaching its June 25 peak of 97.837.

Euro Inches Down, Pound Holds Steady
The euro slipped slightly to 1.1715 dollars, while the British pound remained virtually unchanged at 1.3591 dollars.

Gold and Oil Ease After Recent Highs
Gold prices continued to fall, losing another 0.3 percent to settle at 3292 dollars per ounce after a sharp drop of more than 1 percent on Tuesday. Oil also retreated from two-week highs, with Brent declining 22 cents to 69.93 dollars per barrel and West Texas Intermediate falling 23 cents to 68.10 dollars.
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The main events by the morning: July 10

Bitcoin has updated its historical maximum amid growing investor interest. The cryptocurrency exchange rate rose to a record $112,022 due to increased risk appetite and stable demand from institutional investors. Bitcoin is supported by the friendly policy of the Donald Trump administration, as well as the plans of Trump Media & Technology Group to launch a cryptocurrency ETF with investments in BTC. On Thursday morning, bitcoin is trading at $111,296. Since the beginning of the year, the asset has risen in price by 19%, and in 12 months it has almost doubled.

Trump will impose a 50% duty on copper supplied to the United States from August 1. «Having received a thorough assessment of our national security, I announce the introduction of duties on copper in the amount of 50% starting from August 1, 2025,» he wrote. On the Truth Social network, the president noted that copper is the second most used material by the US Department of Defense.

The United States imposes a 50% duty on imports from Brazil from August 1. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil starting on August 1. The measure is connected, according to him, with Brazil's «attacks» on freedom of speech and elections in the United States. In response, Brazilian President Lula da Silva promised mirror measures. Earlier, Trump also announced the imposition of duties against a number of other countries, including the Philippines, Algeria and Japan.

FTSE 100 has updated its historical maximum amid the growth of mining stocks. The index rose by 1.05% to a record 8,960.72 points due to rising metal prices. The leaders were Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American, Fresnillo and Endeavour. Investors are ignoring trade tensions despite new US tariffs, including a 50% duty on copper imports. Since the beginning of the year, the index has gained 9.5%, supported by capital inflows and a trade agreement with the United States.
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Morning Brief: July 11

Bitcoin has updated its historical maximum. At the moment, the value of the cryptocurrency reached $ 118,661 thousand. The exchange rate increased by almost $5,000 per night.

For the first time in history, solar panels became the main source of energy in the European Union in June. The share of solar energy in the region's energy mix rose to 22.1% last month, or 45.4 TWh. Nuclear power plants and wind turbines accounted for 22% and 16%, respectively. The reason for the record is the increase in capacity and high solar activity. Against this background, electricity prices in France fell below 0 due to a sharp increase in the surplus in the grid.

OPEC has lowered its forecasts for global oil demand for the next four years. The organization also raised its long-term expectations, given the growing consumption in developing countries. In 2025, global oil demand is 105 million barrels per day. According to OPEC's forecast, by 2026 this figure will increase to 106.3 million barrels per day, and by 2029 it will reach 111.6 million.

The BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro prompted Trump to impose 50% tariffs on Brazil. The main trigger for the US president is the efforts of the BRICS countries to de-dollarize. Brazilian President Lula responded by saying that Brazil can do without trade with the United States and will look for other partners to replace it. If no agreement can be reached, Brazil will impose reciprocal trade duties on U.S. products from August 1.

The United States is imposing 35% duties on Canadian imports from August 1, citing retaliatory tariffs from Ottawa. Donald Trump said that the reason was the actions of Canada and the problem with fentanyl. The President noted that changes are possible with cooperation in the fight against the substance. He also warned that further increases in Canadian tariffs would lead to an increase in U.S. duties.

The volatility of the US dollar has decreased, but analysts believe that it may become a «risky» currency again. The reasons include political instability, trade tariffs, Fed independence, fiscal concerns, and asset diversification. The fall in the exchange rate due to Trump's threats caused rumors about the loss of the status of a safe haven asset. In the short term, the dollar remains unstable.
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