Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 24, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from February 23:
The European Union published the final data on inflation, which coincided with the preliminary estimate, which showed an acceleration in consumer price growth from 5.0% to 5.1%. This fact was already embedded in the prices, so it was ignored by the market. Now, the center of everyone's attention is the information flow.

February 24 economic calendar:
The United States GDP data is expected to be published today, where, according to forecasts, the second estimate should coincide with the first, which is unlikely to affect the market in any way.

At the same time, weekly data on jobless claims in the U.S. will be published, which are expected to decrease in volume. This is a positive factor for the U.S. labor market if expectations match.

Statistics details:

The volume of initial claims for unemployment benefits may be reduced from 248,000 to 235,000.

The volume of continuing claims for benefits may be reduced from 1.593M to 1.580M.

Time targeting

U.S. GDP - 13:30 Universal time

U.S. Jobless Claims - 09:30 Universal time

Information and news noise

The flow of information is developing so rapidly that it leads to a wave of speculation in the market. Therefore, the topic of Ukraine leads to sharp price changes in the entire financial sector, whether it is the currency or stock market. It is worth keeping track of the news flow and getting ready for new bursts of activity from speculators.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 24:
In this situation, traders are considering the subsequent recovery of the dollar, where the local low of the downward trend at 1.1121 is used as a guideline. As a variable point of support on the way of sellers, there is coordinate 1.1230, which can locally contain the ardor of speculators. Thus, the subsequent increase in the volume of short positions should be expected after the stable holding of the price below 1.1230 in a four-hour period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on February 24:
In this situation, a stable holding of the price below 1.3485 will lead to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Traders are considering a possible price movement towards the local minimum on January 27 at 1.3357.

An alternative scenario will arise in case of a reduction in the volume of short positions in the support area of 1.3485/1.3500. This will lead to a slowdown in the downward move and, as a result, to a price rebound.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 25/02/2022

Yesterday, the pound was losing its positions for almost the entire day. And this process was accompanied by incessant reports of fighting in Ukraine. Investors were panicking and running away from risk. After all, the war is going on in Europe. This means that the risks extend to the entire continent. After the fighting began to gradually subside and acquire a largely fragmentary character, a banal technical correction began on the market. Which, in general, is not surprising, given the scale of the previous decline. But we are talking about a temporary stop. After the start of the corrective movement, Western countries gradually began to voice the imposed sanctions, which in fact turned out to be not as terrifying as promised. However, Western countries immediately declared that this is only the first block of sanctions, and if military actions do not stop, additional ones will be introduced. So the sanctions themselves have not affected the market in any way so far. They will begin to affect us in the near future. And only in a negative way. The fact is that Russia can fend off most of them with retaliatory sanctions that will cause comparable damage to the economies of Western countries. So now the market is waiting for retaliatory actions from Moscow, which the Kremlin clearly hinted at last night. In other words, yesterday evening's growth of the pound is only temporary and is rather a respite before a new wave of decline.

The British currency against the US dollar in the wake of strong speculation locally lost more than 300 points in value over two trading days. This led to the renewal of the 2022 low and a strong overheating of short positions. As a result, there was a technical correction in the market.

The RSI technical instrument fell to 20.76 in a four-hour period, which signaled a high level of oversold pound.

Moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator indicate a downward trend. There is no intersection between MA lines.

Expectations and prospects:

In this situation, the correction is still taking place in the market, which led to a partial recovery of the British currency. The values of 1.3450 and 1.3480 can play as a possible resistance on the bulls' way. Thus, the downward move may eventually resume, supporting the general strengthening of dollar positions in the market. The largest increase in the volume of short positions is expected after keeping the price below 1.3350 in the daily period.

A complex indicator analysis gives a signal to buy in the short-term and intraday periods due to the corrective move. Technical instruments in the medium term indicate a downward move, signaling a sell.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 28, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from February 25:
The previous week ended interestingly. The information flow continued to put pressure on the market. As a result, speculative price jumps could be observed.

February 28 economic calendar:
Monday is traditionally accompanied by a blank macroeconomic calendar. Nevertheless, the massive information and news flow will continue to play on the nerves of speculators, which allows new leaps in the market.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 28:
A new trading week opened with a large gap, as a result of which the quote fell to the area of 1.1121. In this situation, a slight rollback is possible, partially restoring the euro against the price gap. At the same time, the downward cycle persists in the market, thus keeping the price below 1.1100 will lead to a prolongation of the downward trend.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on February 28:
In this situation, the stable holding of the price below 1.3350 increases the chances of sellers for a subsequent downward move. Traders consider the local low of the downward trend at 1.3160 as a possible prospect.

An alternative scenario of market development considers a partial recovery of prices relative to the emerging gap. This step will in no way disturb the general downward mood of speculators.

US stock market closes lower, Dow Jones unchanged

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones remained unchanged at 0%, the S&P 500 fell 0.25%, and the NASDAQ Composite index remained unchanged at 0%.

Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, unchanged by 0 points (0%) to close at 133.42. Quotes of Boeing Co remained unchanged by 0 points (0%), closing the session at 209.03. Salesforce.com Inc. was unchanged by 0 points (0%) to close at 196.84.

The biggest losers were JPMorgan Chase & Co shares, which remained unchanged by 0 points (0%), closing the session at 152.14. Goldman Sachs Group Inc was unchanged by 0 points (0%) to close at 346.04, while Nike Inc was down 0 points (0%) to close at 142.95.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which was unchanged at 0% to 257.91, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, which was unchanged at 0% to close at 39.56, and shares of Enphase Energy Inc, which remained unchanged 0%, ending the session at 140.35.

The biggest losers were EPAM Systems Inc, which were virtually unchanged at 0% closing at 443.23. Shares of Viatris Inc remained unchanged at 0% and ended the session at 14.71. Dentsply Sirona Inc remained unchanged by 0% at 55.09.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Mullen Automotive Inc, which was unchanged at 0% to hit 0.63, Neurosense Therapeutics Ltd, which was unchanged at 0% to close at 1.57, and shares of China SXT Pharmaceuticals Inc, which remained unchanged 0%, closing the session at 0.1826.

The losers were VEON Ltd shares, which remained almost unchanged at 0%, closing at 1.3500. Shares of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc remained unchanged at 0% and ended the session at 2,740. Esports Entertainment Group Inc remained unchanged by 0% at 2.97.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1692) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1554), while quotes of 117 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1,936 stocks fell, 1,917 rose, and 222 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, remained unchanged at 0% at 27.75.

Gold Futures for April delivery added 0.63%, or 12.05, to $1,911.85 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures rose 3.68%, or 3.32, to $93.53 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 2.10%, or 1.95, to $94.94 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0% to 1.1312, while USD/JPY remained unchanged 0% to hit 114.74.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.10% to 96.112.

Trading plan for EURUSD for March 02, 2022

Technical outlook:
EURUSD dropped through fresh swing lows around 1.1090 levels in the early trading hours on Wednesday. The single currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.1115 mark at this point in writing and could print yet another low before finding support. Bulls remain inclined to be back in control anytime soon from current levels.

EURUSD has been showing a bullish divergence on the daily RSI with every low since 1.1186 as depicted on the chart here. It is a strong indication for a potential bullish reversal from here anytime soon. Immediate price resistance is seen at 1.1500 mark and a break higher will confirm a meaningful bottom in place.

EURUSD still remains bullish looking at the larger degree wave structure. The earlier rally between 1.0636 and 1.2350 has been retraced just below its fibonacci 0.618 levels as seen here. High probability remains for a bullish turn from here and push through 1.1500 and 1.1700 levels respectively.

Trading plan:
Potential bullish turn towards 1.1500 and 1.1700 against 1.1000

Good luck!

US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 1.79%

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.79%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.86%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 1.62%.

Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 9.78 points or 5.35% to close at 192.61. Quotes of Intel Corporation rose by 2.05 points (4.38%), closing the session at 48.87. Dow Inc rose 2.07 points or 3.62% to close at 59.20.

The losers were Visa Inc Class A, which shed 0.49 points or 0.23% to end the session at 208.48. Walmart Inc was down 0.17 points (0.13%) to close at 136.16, while Procter & Gamble Company was up 0.48 points (0.31%) to close at 153. .79.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were EPAM Systems Inc, which rose 16.08% to 245.17, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co, which gained 10.25% to close at 16.99. as well as shares of Las Vegas Sands Corp, which rose 10.17% to end the session at 44.40.

The biggest losers were Charter Communications Inc, which shed 3.99% to close at 570.99. Shares of Enphase Energy Inc shed 3.93% to end the session at 163.89. Dentsply Sirona Inc lost 3.46% to 52.48.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Ecmoho Ltd, which rose 56.65% to hit 0.37, Imperial Petroleum Inc (NASDAQ:IMPP), which gained 39.19% to close at 2 .06, as well as shares of Regulus Therapeutics Inc, which rose 35.56% to close the session at 0.31.

The biggest losers were SAB Biotherapeutics Inc, which shed 39.87% to close at 2.76. Shares of Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc shed 39.75% to end the session at 6.26. Quotes Puhui Wealth Investment Management Co Ltd fell in price by 36.08% to 0.84.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2431) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (796), while quotes of 119 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2597 companies rose in price, 1210 fell, and 230 remained at the level of the previous close.

SAB Biotherapeutics Inc stock tumbled to all-time lows, down 39.87% or 1.83 points to close at 2.76.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 7.74% to 30.74.

Gold futures for April delivery lost 0.67%, or 13.00, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures rose 7.71%, or 7.97, to $111.38 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 0.45%, or 0.52, to $115.08 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.02% to 1.11, while USD/JPY rallied 0.03% to hit 115.53.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.03% to 97.37.

USD/CAD: energy stays strong driver for Canadian dollar

By the end of the week, the Canadian dollar was in high spirits, despite the serious geopolitical conflict around Ukraine. The Canadian dollar rallied on the back of the looming energy crisis, but was unable to consolidate its gains.

This week, the buyers of the Canadian dollar, who took advantage of the decline of the USD/CAD pair by over 150 pips, were in a winning position. As a result, the pair updated the lows recorded at the end of January 2022 and broke support at 1.2600.

USD/CAD is currently near the lowest levels of January. Analysts are expecting a further slide. On March 4, USD/CAD was trading at 1.2698, approaching a level of 1.2700.

The ubiquitous surge in energy prices poses a threat to the European economy. Against this backdrop, a number of key currencies, particularly the European currency, have weakened markedly. Meanwhile, commodity currencies such as the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars have gained strength.

An energy boost helped the Canadian dollar to strengthen. USD/CAD fell from 1.2730 to 1.2595 amid an increase in oil exports. Notably, Canada is one of the largest oil exporters.

The price of oil on the global market is a major trigger for rising inflation. Earlier this week, the price of benchmark Brent added 5%, reaching $115 a barrel. This is the highest figure since 2011, experts emphasize. The bullish rally in the oil market was triggered by investor fears of a global supply shortage and inaction by OPEC+ countries, which have been curbing oil production growth as much as they can.

Traders are concerned about the potential impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the global energy sector. Many Western countries have refrained from imposing sanctions on the Russian energy sector, but some market participants have stopped buying Russian oil. Against the backdrop of disruptions to offshore supplies of Russian crude, global oil production could sag. On March 3, Brent was as high as $120 a barrel.

Another factor supporting the Canadian dollar was a 25 basis points interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. The authority stressed that the regulator was ready for further rate hikes at upcoming meetings. It should be noted that the Bank of Canada has raised its key rate for the first time in 3.5 years and has set a course to further tighten monetary policy. The measure is required to limit inflationary pressures, which have intensified against the backdrop of rising fuel prices. The geopolitical conflict around Ukraine will not prevent further rate hikes, the bank believes.

The Canadian regulator is the second of the Group of Seven (G-7) central banks to increase its rate since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the Bank of Canada, a greater reduction in monetary stimulus will be required in the near future. This is necessary to further normalize monetary policy as the risk of stronger consumer price increases remains this year.

According to analysts, the main drivers behind the strength of the Canadian dollar and the decline in the USD/CAD pair to 1.2500 are oil and monetary ones. The Bank of Canada's hawkish rhetoric contributes to the CAD's strength. The national economy and currency are supported by rising oil prices, as raw materials are the country's key export resource.

US stock market under pressure from Russia-Ukraine conflict

S&P 500

The US stock market plunged, while the US dollar advanced. The situation in Ukraine and strong data on US nonfarm payrolls.

Major US indices ended lower at the end of the week: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5%, the NASDAQ Composite slid by 1.7%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.8%.

S&P 500: 4,329

Friday's statistics on the US labor market for February turned out to be positive. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 678,000, beating expectations and notching the best month for jobs growth since July. However, this increase followed a fall in December caused by the Omicron outbreak in the US. This means that the labor market has somewhat recovered. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% from 4.0% in January. In general, the market has almost fully recovered to pre-COVID levels in terms of employment growth and the jobs level.

As for Russia's military actions in Ukraine, the country continues to attack in several directions. Its forces are trying to encircle Kyiv and Kharkov. In the south, the Russians have opened a land corridor between Crimea and the Russian border in the east. Russia is seeking to expand the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The West is discussing new sanctions amid Russia's ongoing attack on Ukraine. Now traders fear that further sanctions will directly limit Russian oil and gas shipments. According to the German authorities, they are ready for such a scenario.

Two rounds of Russia-Ukraine peace talks have yielded almost no results. A third round of negotiations between the parties is set to take place this weekend.

USDX: 98.48. The US dollar hit a new annual high on both the situation in Ukraine and strong data on the US labor market. The Fed is still on track to raise interest rates on March 16.

USD/CAD: 1.2725. The pair continues to trade within the range of 1.2600 - 1.2800

Conclusion: The events unfolding in Ukraine remain the main factor driving the market. However, US stocks seem to be ready to gain on any signs of easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.56%

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.56% to a 6-month low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.73%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.28%.

Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 13.30 points or 6.76% to close at 210.00. Chevron Corp rose 8.49 points or 5.24% to close at 170.53. Boeing Co rose 4.63 points or 2.74% to close at 173.80.

Shares of Coca-Cola Co were the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 2.42 points (3.96%), ending the session at 58.66. Procter & Gamble Company rose 3.96% or 6.05 points to close at 146.79 while UnitedHealth Group Incorporated shed 2.75% or 13.41 points to close at 473.46.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Enphase Energy Inc, which rose 10.82% to 175.99, SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which gained 10.41% to close at 328.91, and also shares of Quanta Services Inc, which rose 8.17% to close the session at 116.83.

The biggest losers were Seagate Technology PLC, which shed 9.51% to close at 90.57. Shares of ConAgra Foods Inc shed 8.22% to end the session at 30.93. Quotes of Intuitive Surgical Inc decreased in price by 7.98% to 269.32.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 203.31% to 1.00, Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 88.49% to close at 1.15. as well as shares of Westport Fuel Systems Inc, which rose 52.63% to end the session at 2.03.

The drop leaders were shares of Imperial Petroleum Inc, which fell 43.33% to close at 4.25. Shares of Inspirato Inc lost 42.78% to end the session at 15.25. Quotes of Digital Brands Group Inc decreased in price by 30.61% to 1.36.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1694) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1502), while quotes of 147 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2069 companies rose in price, 1727 fell, and 265 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.62% to 35.13.

Gold futures for April delivery added 3.12%, or 62.35, to $2.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for April delivery rose 4.44%, or 5.30, to $124.70 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 0.06%, or 0.08, to $129.27 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.00% to 1.09, while USD/JPY edged up 0.01% to hit 115.67.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.17% to 99.12.

Trading plan for USDJPY for March 10, 2022

Technical outlook:
USDJPY rallied through 116.19 highs during early hours of trade on Thursday. The wave structure still remains bearish until prices stay below 116.35 mark as bears remain inclined to be back in control from here. A break below 115.60 will confirm that a lower top is in place around 116.19 and that prices are dragging lower towards 114.40 at least.

USDJPY could drop towards 113.50 and 112.50 in the next few trading sessions. The potential double top reversal pattern will be confirmed on a break below 113.50 mark, going forward. Alternatively, the currency pair is drifting sideways within a rising wedge since 116.35 highs. If the alternate count unfolds, prices could break above 116.35 mark producing a thrust wave higher towards 117.50.

USDJPY needs to break below 114.40 initial support at least, to rule out any further upside or triangle breakout. Even if prices break higher above 116.35 mark, upside remains limited and bears might be back in control sooner than expected. Either way, expect a bearish reversal from here or from 117.00-50 mark.

Trading plan:
Potential drop through 109.00 against 118.50

Trading plan for Gold for March 10, 2022

Technical outlook:
Gold seems to have carved a meaningful top around $2,070 mark on Tuesday. The yellow metal has faced formidable resistance just ahead of the critical swing high around $2,075 in August 2021. Prices are expected to drop one more time through $1,940-45 mark before producing a meaningful pullback going forward.

Gold prices also surpassed the Fibonacci 1.618 extension seen around $2,010 levels as highlighted on the 4H chart here. The extended last leg rally came to an abrupt end around $2,070 as bears came back in control. The downside potential targets remain $1,880 and $1,780 in the medium term. Ideally, prices will remain below $2,070 mark.

Gold finds immediate price support around $1,940, followed by $1,880 and further; while resistance is not fixed at $2,070 mark respectively. A break below $1,940 will confirm that bears are back in control and the trend has reversed for long time. The yellow metal remains a good candidate to be sold on rallies thereafter.

Trading plan:
Potential drop to $1,940 in the near term.