Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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Investors in the Japanese yen were disappointed with the Bank of Japan’s plans to reexamine its monetary policies. The reaction to the central bank’s announcement caused an initial double-sided volatility. Investors have since decided that this particular decision will have no bearing on the economy and on the Japanese currency.

The BoJ’s announcement caused the JPY to increase significantly on September 21, but the USD had already started bouncing back by September 23. The USD/JPY closed Friday’s trading session at 100.971 points, going up by 0.211 points or +0.21%. The pair however still closed the week lower by 1.26%.

The USD/JPY pair was also further weakened by the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy statement, which turned out to be less hawkish than expected. The Federal Reserve did not increase its interest rates this month, but there is still a possibility of an interest rate hike in December.

The USD experienced a downward pressure.due to the Fed’s lowered expectations and the decreased possibility of future rate hikes, which can lead to a lowered appreciation of the USD since the central bank’s decision indicates a slow-moving US economy.

The EUR/USD went up higher during Friday’s trading session as the USD further weakened after the Fed’s decision to maintain its current interest rates. The Markit PMI also went out lower than expected after it took the bulk of the earlier increases in the USD. Resistance levels are currently on the downward side after coming out within the 1.1290 range. Support levels are currently near the 10-day moving average at 1.1206 points.

US Markit PMI data dropped by 0.6 points to go out at 51.4 points for September following a 0.9 point drop to 52.0 points in August. Index is now ranging from 50.7-52.9 for 2016, with September’s levels going at 53.1 points. New index data showed a decrease to 51.0 points from last August’s 52.7 points, its lowest level since December 2015. Manufacturing data also went out lower than expected as compared to similar technical readings of composite EU data.

The USD/CAD pair went down slightly last week, plummeting at 1.30 points. The currency pair then bounced back from the support barrier, and if the pair goes above the hammer formed then this would mean a very bullish sign for the USD/CAD, and the market would be able to go over the 1.35 trading range.

The oil market is wielding its influence over the financial market, especially since the CAD has become a proxy currency for commodity traders. However, the oil market in general does not look very promising, and speculators are stating that it is only a matter of time before oil prices would take a turn for the worst. This might cause the USD to increase in relation to the CAD in the long-run.

The market is generally expected to go above the 1.35-point level. However, investors are not expected this to occur anytime soon. Pullback levels might be able to offer some measure of projected value and support, given that the market stays above the 1.30 trading range. Buyers are expected to always return to the commodities market, and an upward pressure for the currency market is now felt especially for the possible breakout which could happen at any point now that the volume has returned to the foreign exchange market.

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade at the bottom of its range, closing Monday’s trading session at 1.2950 points. The pair has not yet been able to make a proper recovery from its past price lows. The value of the currency pair will be most likely be decided by the impending adjustments between other currency pairs, particularly the expected EUR/GBP flows towards the end of September.

The GBP/USD pair had strong resistance levels at 1.3140 last week and has plummeted back to the support levels at 1.2950 after failing to go above the resistance level. The pair also momentarily decreased to 1.2910 before going back above 1.2950 points. Analysts are expecting the pair to be bullish for the rest of the daily trading session, possibly going up to the resistance level of 1.3000 points. If the pair manages to go over this resistance level then this would enable the pair to go in the range of 1.3080-3100, where a lot of sells happened during the last time the pair has reached this level.

However, it is still yet to be seen whether the pair would be able to maintain its current value at 1.2950, and could possible lead to a low on Friday at 1.2910 and then 1.2870. The EUR has a somewhat stable bullish stance, and the GBP is also expected to follow this bullish bearing of the EUR, since there are no major UK news that is expected to come out within this period.

The EUR/USD pair rallied up to 1.1278 during Monday’s trading session after positive US housing date enabled investors to avoid the advancement towards a major resistance range. US new home sales went down slightly in August, dropping at a 609,000 annual rate and decreasing by 7.6% as compared to the data last July, lower than the expected 8.6% decline. The USD was also strengthened by comments from the Fed’s lacker which has stated that there is a strong possibility of an interest rate hike in December. Germany’s IFO survey has indicated that the business environment in the EU has increased significantly in September, going up to 109.5 from August’s 106.2, with increase in both the expectations and assessments sector.

The EUR/USD pair meanwhile continues to trade within its current range, suspending its recovery at main resistance levels, with a descent at 1.1615 points. The currency pair also experienced multiple intraday highs and lows within the 1.1280 trading range, and the upward potential will continue to be suspended as long as the price of the pair remains below 1.1280 points. Divergences can already be seen in the 4-hour chart, and the price continues to remain above a highly bullish 20 SMA which has already went above the 100 SMA. There is a high probability of a bearish trading session on Tuesday if there will be more decreases below the 1.1225 range. If the USD continues to strengthen, then there is a probable bearish trade point at 1.1160.

The Japanese yen strengthened in the middle of risk aversion and is remaining to be a safe haven currency after the Bank of Japan’s statement that the central bank is preparing to implement additional regulations which are intended to increase inflation rates did not hinder the growth of the yen’s value.

The demand for the JPY was supported by the risk-off sentiment, with the price dropping from the present Asian high of 101.00 down to the immediate support level at 100.40 where there is a decreased downward pressure. The 50, 100, and 200 EMAs all declined while the moving averages all went lower in the 4-hour chart. Resistance levels are currently at 101.40 while support levels are at 100.40 points.

The technical indicators for the currency pair are all on the downward trend. However, MACD levels are sustained at the same range which is indicative of positive sellers data. On the other hand, RSI continues to remain over the expected oversold area. The USD/JPY is generally facing a bearish stance, and a closing value at 100.40 might trigger losses and may bring down the pair to the 100.00 range. The USD/JPY may also experience a slight increase if the support for the pair is sustained.

The dollar still hovers in the pressured area compared to other major pairs, seeing that the stocks remains affected regarding the Fed's resolution. Traders are taking some precautionary movements for every execution because of the impact that the U.S Presidential debate might bring.

The pair experienced a downward pressured on Monday because the pound and dollar throw over their acquired profits on Friday. Moreover, the pair also indicated a steep decline against the level of support lied at 1.2900.

The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs sustained a bearish outlook. The resistance is found in the 1.3000 level, support is present in the 1.2900 level.

MACD fail off but give out strength for the sellers. RSI is positioned in the negative condition.

The USD/JPY stopped at 0.665 or -0.66% at 100.306. Financiers of the Japanese yen attacked the US investors on Monday as they kept arguing about the BoJ's plan to change the monetary policy.

Despite of the preparation by many investors for the upcoming OPEC meeting and the first presidential debate of the United States, the Yen merchants awaits for the statement of the central bank Japanese Governor Kuroda. As he affirmed last Monday about the readiness of Nichigin regarding the usage of policy tool for the accomplishing the 2% target of inflation.

Furthermore, news released some information during the meeting by which the bank is confident that they will reach their goal, but there are some uncertainties which might leave an impact for accommodating the renewed policy.

The movement of price can be identified upon the debate outcome, considering that this is the major news at this moment.

In case that Mr.Trump got the victory then stocks presumably would be sold-off whereby investors of yen would be safe because it will settle on a higher position.

The sterling pound is currently experiencing a downward pressure following a decrease in oil prices. The buying interest for the GBP/USD went down a few pips to have a current value slightly above the 1.3200 range. The currency’s value dropped significantly from the last trade high and went down between the 1.3200 and and 1.2940 trading range during the last session. The GBP/USD has now dropped beneath the moving averages while the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs is still experiencing a steady decline. Resistance levels are now at 1.3000 points, while support levels are at 1.2900.

MACD levels are currently in the negative but remained in its previous level which indicates that sellers are now increasing their strength. The RSI is sustained at the neutral territory while oscillator levels are expected to decrease.

Sellers would be able to break below the 1.2900 range if the GBP/USD pair would be able to stay within the negative trading range. Analysts are also expecting more sideway trades in the next few hours.