Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The Dollar Keeps Moving Forward

The approval by the House of Representatives of what Donald Trump called a "big and beautiful" tax-cut bill, along with a rise in the U.S. composite PMI from 50.6 to 52.1, helped the U.S. dollar regain its footing. EUR/USD fell below the 1.13 level. However, if the U.S.-born financial "contagion" spreads to the broader global financial system, the euro could ultimately benefit.

The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and a poorly received 20-year Treasury auction accelerated the rise in Treasury yields. Yields on 30-year bonds are hovering near their highest levels since 2007. Similar trends are being observed in other countries as well. For example, Japan's 30-year government bond yield recently hit a new record high since data collection began in 1999.

Bond Yield Trends

Investors increasingly believe that governments can no longer afford to accumulate debt at the pace seen when interest rates were near zero. Meanwhile, central banks—led by the Federal Reserve—are in no hurry to cut rates amid trade wars, high tariffs, and rising inflation risks. A global financial crisis, where governments' growing fiscal appetites are left unfunded, would push investors to seek safe havens. And that status has been lost by the U.S. dollar.

In the recent past, the logic was simple: when the global economy weakened, traders bought the U.S. dollar; when it improved, they favored the euro. But Donald Trump's return to the White House has turned everything upside down. Distrust in the policies of the 47th U.S. president has made American assets appear unsafe. Today, gold, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and German government bonds look more attractive as safe-haven alternatives.

For now, investors are focusing on divergence in economic growth. The eurozone composite PMI fell below the critical 50 level in May, signaling GDP contraction in the currency bloc. In contrast, U.S. business activity rose to a two-month high.

European Business Activity Dynamics

Thus, while EUR/USD bears are supported by stronger U.S. business activity compared to Europe and the Fed's reluctance to restart a monetary easing cycle—at least until September—bulls have their own arguments. These include mistrust of the U.S. dollar, concerns about the stability of the American fiscal system, and capital flows shifting from North America to Europe.

Technical Outlook

On the daily chart, EUR/USD rebounded from its fair value at 1.1335. Key support lies near the lower boundary of the 1.122–1.141 range, where several moving averages are clustered. A rebound from this level could support a buildup of long positions, while a breakdown would signal a potential trend reversal and justify short-term selling.
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USD declares war on EUR

What's new is often just what's been forgotten. As spring draws to a close, the long-dismissed mantra "sell America" is making a comeback in markets. The phrase gained traction following Donald Trump's sweeping tariff actions in early April, which heightened fears of a potential US recession. Today, the United States faces a different challenge—fiscal. And the dollar is no longer a safe-haven currency that automatically rallies in times of stress. Still, the US president's threats towards the European Union are clipping the wings of the EUR/USD pair.

If US federal debt does indeed climb to 134% of GDP over the next decade, as projected by Moody's, investors are justified in demanding higher compensation for risk. The so-called term premium in the US bond market has surged to its highest level since 2014. This underscores the depth of market discomfort with the Republican tax-cut proposal.

Fiscal troubles are eroding confidence in the US dollar. According to Deutsche Bank, America's fiscal woes pose a greater threat to the greenback than to Treasury bonds. Domestic buyers will likely continue absorbing government debt, but foreign reluctance to do the same could be yet another nail in the coffin for the US dollar index.

The White House, however, has its own agenda. Without waiting for the weekend—so as not to rattle equity markets—Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on goods imported from the European Union. He argued that current talks between Washington and Brussels are going nowhere, that negotiating with Europe is difficult, and that it's time they "got moving." If not, higher import duties will take effect starting June 1.

Markets are now bracing for a new trade war. While the US reached an understanding with China relatively quickly, doing the same with the EU could prove more challenging. Brussels is preparing countermeasures, and tit-for-tat tariffs are likely to harm both the American and European economies. Business activity in the eurozone is already flashing warning signs, so what happens when 50% tariffs hit?

The only potential lifeline appears to be continued monetary easing by the European Central Bank. A sharp slowdown in average wages, which are now at their lowest since late 2021, suggests that the Governing Council has plenty of room to cut interest rates.

Thus, while fiscal challenges weigh on the US dollar, the inability of the US and the European Union to swiftly reach a compromise is a clear negative factor for the euro, driven by fears of losing a trade war. This balance of risks further heightens the chances of consolidation in the EUR/USD pair.

Technically, the daily chart shows a battle unfolding around fair value, located near the 1.134 mark. A win for the bulls would allow them to expand long positions built during the euro's dip below $1.13. Conversely, if bears maintain control of this key level, investors will have to wait for a deeper pullback in EUR/USD to initiate new long positions.

EUR/USD Weekly Preview: FOMC Minutes, Core PCE Index, U.S. GDP

The upcoming week promises to be volatile. First, several significant macroeconomic reports will be released in the U.S. Second, the intrigue surrounding Donald Trump's new tariffs on EU goods is expected to be resolved. This is the final week of the month when the most critical data for the U.S. dollar is published. This suggests that the EUR/USD pair is likely to enter a zone of price turbulence without delay.

Monday
On the surface, Monday's economic calendar appears empty. Only European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel are scheduled to speak. Moreover, U.S. markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

However, this doesn't mean EUR/USD will remain range-bound. First, traders will react to Jerome Powell's speech on Sunday at 08:40 EST. More importantly, the market will digest Donald Trump's statement recommending a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1. This announcement came late Friday during the U.S. session, so it will likely continue to affect EUR/USD on Monday. Over the weekend, Brussels reacted sharply to the U.S. President's controversial statement. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic emphasized that EU-U.S. trade is "unmatched" and should be based on "mutual respect, not threats." He also noted that the EU "is ready to defend its interests," hinting that retaliatory measures, prepared as early as April, could be enacted.

In short, despite the sparse calendar and U.S. holiday, elevated volatility is expected at the start of the new trading week.

Tuesday
Tuesday's key reports will be released during the U.S. session. The focus will be on the April durable goods orders. After surging 7.5% in March, a significant decline of 7.9% is expected in April. Excluding transportation, orders are projected to fall by 0.1%.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will also be published. It has declined for five consecutive months, falling to 86.0 in April, the lowest since May 2020. May's forecast is 87.1, but the dollar could face substantial pressure if it shows another drop (i.e., below 86.0). Earlier, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to 50.8, the lowest since June 2022. A weak Conference Board reading would reinforce the negative narrative for the greenback amid rising inflation expectations and renewed tariff fears.

Wednesday
The FOMC minutes from the May meeting will be released on Wednesday. At that meeting, the Fed left all policy parameters unchanged, with Jerome Powell stating that the Fed needed more clarity on how tariffs would impact the economy. He also downplayed the Q1 GDP slowdown, saying the U.S. economy remains in "good shape." The official statement reflected these themes.

The minutes are anticipated to convey a similar message: an optimistic outlook on current conditions alongside serious concerns about future risks, particularly due to trade tensions. The greater the concern, the more pressure it puts on the dollar. However, the minutes will influence EUR/USD only if they differ significantly from Powell's comments or the official statement.

Also, on Wednesday, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released. In April, it dropped sharply to -13. A modest recovery is expected in May to -9, but the index will remain negative. The release will only support the dollar if it unexpectedly returns to positive territory, which is unlikely.

Two Fed officials will speak: Governor Christopher Waller, a voting member, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who does not vote this year.

Thursday
The second estimate of Q1 U.S. GDP will be published on May 29. The first estimate showed a 0.3% contraction, following 2.4% growth in Q4 2024. Most analysts expect the second estimate to confirm the initial figure. If the data is revised downward, the dollar may come under added pressure, reviving talk of stagflation.

That said, market reaction might be muted since the Q1 GDP decline was primarily due to a 41% surge in imports, as businesses stockpiled ahead of the new tariff schedule. Thus, even if a revision happens, the market reaction may be short-lived. If the data matches expectations, it will likely be ignored.

In addition, the April Pending Home Sales report will be released. This early housing market indicator showed a 6.1% increase in March, but a 1.0% decline is expected in April.

Friday
On the final trading day of the week, the U.S. will release the Core PCE Price Index for April — the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. It slowed to 2.6% YoY in March after jumping to 3.0% in February. April's forecast is a modest rise to 2.8%. This would reinforce the Fed's wait-and-see approach, likely delaying any policy changes through June and July.

On paper, this would be a hawkish development, but not under current conditions, where inflation is rising while economic growth is slowing. The looming threat of stagflation will continue to cast a shadow over the dollar.

Conclusion
The coming week is packed with major macroeconomic events, but all of them will be overshadowed by trade-related developments. If negotiations between the U.S. and China make progress and talks with the EU resume constructively—for example, if Trump backs down on the 50% tariff threat—the dollar could not only recover lost ground but reach new highs. EUR/USD could fall back to the 1.1080–1.1190 range.

However, if the escalation continues — mainly if Trump follows through on the tariff threat and the EU retaliates — we could see EUR/USD rally toward 1.1440 (the upper Bollinger Band on D1). Considering current signals, the escalation scenario looks more likely.
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Gold at $4,200? Why the Market Is Once Again Preparing for a Historic Rally

The gold market has recently been highly volatile, with dramatic movements in both directions. After breaking above $3,000 per ounce, the metal entered a phase of heightened volatility—testing resistance at $3,350, pulling back to $3,300, and climbing again.

The technical range has remained stable, with dynamic resistance at $3,350 acting like a magnet for price. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) is steadily sliding below 99.0 points, and gold—historically inversely correlated with the dollar—is rising in tandem with this weakness.

Traders have noticed that every dip toward $3,300 is quickly bought up. This isn't just market noise—it's positioning for the next upward impulse.

Goldman Sachs Opens the Door to $4,200
Goldman Sachs has raised its base forecast for gold (XAU/USD) and outlined a potential roadmap to $4,200 per ounce. Although this is still considered a "tail-risk" scenario, it is now being taken seriously.

The bank's base target is $3,300, with an expanded trading range of $3,250–$3,520. Yet the entire market is fixated on that extreme number.

Why? Because gold has already surpassed the core target, and the fundamentals are on its side. The $4,200 scenario is not merely a fantasy but a likely outcome of various macroeconomic challenges.

Three Pillars of the Rally: Central Banks, the Fed, and ETFs
First, central banks. The East continues to buy gold with persistence worthy of a macroeconomics textbook. China, Turkey, and India are leading the pack, with total purchases expected to reach 1,000 tons by year-end. The trend has remained unbroken since 2022. These purchases are not speculative—they represent a structural shift in the global reserve system.

Second, the Federal Reserve. The market is already pricing in two rate cuts in 2025. But if the U.S. economy stumbles and recession worsens, monetary easing could become aggressive. In a world of lower rates, gold becomes a star. Under such conditions, capital rotation from bonds into gold is just a matter of time.

Third, ETFs. While retail investors have been cautious, that's changing. Gold fund inflows reached $296 billion in Q1—a record since 2021. If that pace holds, annual flows could reach $500 billion. That would not just be support—it would be a launchpad.

But Not All Is Smooth: Risks Remain
Goldman Sachs also points to clouds on the horizon. A peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could trigger short-term profit-taking and a price pullback—though the bank sees this as a temporary effect, unlikely to alter the fundamental demand-supply trend.

A stock market crash could also temporarily hurt gold—as part of a "sell everything" panic. But history shows that once the first wave of fear subsides, gold reasserts itself as a safe haven. That's when real growth begins amid a flight to safety.

Current Price Action and Technical Outlook: Gold in a Wait-and-See Phase Near the Trendline
Gold has entered a consolidation phase after a strong rally, with all attention now focused on U.S. economic data and Fed signals. Investors have adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of FOMC minutes, GDP figures, durable goods orders, and the PCE index—all of which could shift short-term demand-supply dynamics.

From a technical perspective, gold is holding within a descending channel that has been forming since mid-April. The price has again reached the upper boundary near $3,358, which has previously acted as a reversal point.

How the price behaves here is key to determining the next move: a strong breakout with confirming volume and a trend reversal or another pullback toward support.

If sellers return, the $3,307–$3,300 zone will serve as the first line of defense, followed by the $3,258 area and key support near $3,240–$3,245.

These are the zones where demand previously increased, and bouncebacks occurred. A break below them could signal a move toward the channel's lower boundary—around $3,100, where an important long-term support level is located.

If, on the other hand, gold manages to consolidate above resistance at $3,386 (R1) amid dollar weakness and rate-cut expectations, the next step will be a test of $3,415 (R2), followed by a path toward $3,440 and potentially historic highs near $3,500.

Fundamentally, the yellow metal continues to receive support: the dollar is weakening, interest rates may fall, and U.S. fiscal policy is raising investor concerns. Meanwhile, the recent agreement between Trump and von der Leyen to temporarily postpone tariffs only slightly lowered the geopolitical temperature and triggered a brief shift toward risk.

But in essence, this is not a cancellation—it's a pause. Geopolitical and financial risks remain, and they continue to favor gold.

What Should Traders Do?
Gold at current levels is not "expensive" but "unstably stable." Every dip to $3,300 is a chance to accumulate. Support is well-defined. Resistance at $3,350 is only a matter of time before it breaks. If external conditions align, the next target is $3,520.

And if the market gets all three drivers at once—a falling dollar, rising geopolitical tensions, and a Fed rate-cut signal—then even $4,000 may not be the ceiling.

The main events by the morning: May 28

Putin's conditions for ending his war are the lifting of sanctions and a commitment not to expand NATO. Three Russian sources said Putin wants a written commitment from the major Western powers, led by the United States, not to expand NATO's western borders. This will mean an official refusal to accept Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and other post-Soviet countries into the alliance.

Trump has not given up hope of annexing Canada to the United States. The president said that Canada would need to pay $61 billion to join the Golden Dome missile defense system. At the same time, he noted that he is ready to defend Canada for free, provided that it becomes part of the United States. He wrote on the Truth Social network that Canada is already considering such a proposal.

Trump needs a weak dollar to reduce/eliminate the US trade deficit. Reducing the U.S. trade deficit is a key goal of President Donald Trump's economic agenda. But to implement his plan, the dollar will have to weaken significantly. How much is unclear. Experts warn that major falls in the dollar are rare and have unpredictable consequences for trade.

Trump is preparing a deal with Russia and China that could change the global order. The NYT newspaper reports that for the US president, «any time is suitable for making deals,» which may mean the possibility of reaching an agreement even during the trade war with China and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Experts believe that Trump's actions and statements indicate a desire to create a new global system.

Fruits and berries in Russia have risen in price by 26% in Russia over the past year. Prices are rising against the background of an increase in the cost of domestic products and adverse weather conditions both in Russia and in many importing countries. Recurrent frosts can lead to the loss of up to 15% of the apple harvest this year.

The main events by the morning: May 29

The US Court of International Trade declared Trump's duties illegal. The court supported the Democratic-led states and small businesses, which accused the president of misuse of the law on the state of emergency. The court's decision affects Trump's global tariff and increased rates for China, but tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles remain in effect.

European stock markets on Thursday showed growth against the backdrop of the US court's decision to block new tariffs proposed by Trump. This has boosted hopes for mitigating the economic impact of trade disputes. The German DAX rose by 0.4%, the French CAC 40 added 0.6%, while the British FTSE 100 decreased by 0.1%.

The ruble continues to strengthen, already confidently below 79 per dollar. Currently, the ruble is considered the strongest currency in the world. However, the question is how long it will last. Analysts have been warning for two months that the ruble is overbought, and the objective dollar exchange rate should be above 90. Nevertheless, the Russian currency has not yet shown signs of weakening.

The Bank of Russia sees no risks to the Russian economy due to the strengthening of the ruble. The Central Bank stated that there was no significant strengthening of the ruble, because before it strengthened, the ruble weakened quite significantly. In addition, a strong ruble is a disinflationary factor. It may lead to lower interest rates, which will be positive for the budget.

In April, car production in the UK fell to its lowest level since 1952, with the exception of the 2020 lockdown, when production almost stopped. The figure decreased by 15.8% year-on-year, amounting to only 59,203 vehicles. According to the SMMT, the current recession has completed the worst start to the year for the industry since 2009.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is declining below the $3300 level today. U.S. PCE data met expectations. A shift in trade flows is helping the U.S. dollar regain positive momentum. This is also undermining demand for gold, although a combination of factors is holding traders back from opening aggressive bearish positions, thus limiting deeper losses.analytics6839bb4aa2af4.jpgThe recent decision by the U.S. Federal Appellate Court to suspend a separate Trade Court ruling and reinstate tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump has added a layer of uncertainty to the markets, influencing investor sentiment. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks related to the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East continue to support the precious metal.

Furthermore, expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further are limiting the dollar's strength, providing a tailwind for the XAU/USD pair. Thus, despite the current consolidation, gold remains in focus among traders who are awaiting further signals from macroeconomic data.

From a technical perspective, the overnight failure at the $3325 resistance and the subsequent drop below the key $3300 level favor the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, oscillators on the 4-hour chart have resumed a negative bias, supporting further intraday downside movement. Therefore, continued weakness toward the $3280 support, and further toward the next support at $3250, looks quite likely. A decisive break below the latter would pave the way for deeper losses, exposing the round $3200 level.

On the other hand, the $3325 retracement level stands as the immediate resistance before the $3350 supply zone. Sustained strength beyond this zone would negate the negative outlook and could trigger a short-covering rally, allowing the price to return to the $3400 psychological level. Momentum could extend even higher from there.

Trump shakes Wall Street Again: market indices respond instantly

Wall Street's roller coaster: May ends with strong rally

A turbulent month came to a strong finish, as the benchmark S&P 500 closed Friday almost exactly where it started the day. Despite a choppy session, May delivered the index's biggest monthly gain since November 2023. The Nasdaq showed a similarly impressive performance, posting its highest percentage increase for the same period.

Political whiplash and market nerves Throughout the month, investors felt like they were living out of suitcases. President Donald Trump's shifting rhetoric on trade relations with China kept markets on edge. His sharp criticism alternated with signals of renewed dialogue, making it nearly impossible to predict index movements.

Yet despite the turbulence, the markets recovered from the April dip. Support came from solid corporate earnings and moderate inflation data, which helped restore a cautious sense of optimism.

Morning tension, evening hope Friday began on a sour note. Trump posted a harsh rebuke of China on his social media platform Truth Social, accusing Beijing of breaching trade agreements. He also hinted that the US might adopt a tougher stance in the trade conflict.

However, by day's end, his tone had softened. Trump announced his intention to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping and expressed hope for a resolution on key issues, including tariffs. This shift in messaging helped ease earlier losses and steadied the markets by the close.

Investors balancing between data and interest rates

Despite mixed index dynamics on Friday, overall market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic. The S&P 500 ended the week on a positive note, continuing to recover recent losses and moving within 4% of its all-time high set in February.

Inflation data boosts confidence New macroeconomic data also gave markets more to digest. In April, U.S. consumer spending rose by 2.1% year-over-year, slightly down from 2.3% in March. These numbers are consistent with a broader trend of easing inflation, which the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring.

Tariffs stay in spotlight According to Oxford Research, the average US import tariff, which stood at around 2–3% before President Trump's administration, has increased to 15%. Although a trade court has ruled to reduce it to 6%, an appellate court has temporarily upheld the higher rate.

Indices snapshot

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 54.34 points (+0.13%) to 42,270.07
The S&P 500 slipped slightly by 0.48 points (–0.01%) to 5,911.69
The Nasdaq Composite fell by 62.11 points (–0.32%) to 19,113.77
Ulta stuns Wall Street Shares of beauty retailer Ulta Beauty surged nearly 12% after the company not only exceeded quarterly expectations but also raised its full-year revenue forecast. This strong report reinforced Ulta's standing as a sector leader amid intense competition and cautious consumer spending.

Indian Markets Under Pressure

On Monday, Indian stock indices slipped into negative territory despite upbeat economic data. The main culprit was unease from global markets. The fall in shares of metal and IT companies, triggered by renewed concerns over the potential escalation of U.S. tariff policies, weighed on the broader market.

Indian index summary

The Nifty 50 dropped by 0.65% to 24,588.50
The BSE Sensex declined by 0.72% to 80,865.54 (as of 10:08 a.m. IST)
Tariff threat resurfaces

Fresh anxiety came from a comment by Donald Trump, who stated that steel and aluminum import tariffs might be raised to 50% starting June 4. This statement heightened concerns across markets, especially in Asia, where such rhetoric is viewed as a direct risk to export-driven industries.

Sectors in the red

The Nifty Metal index fell by 0.7%
The Nifty IT index, closely tied to the US market, dropped 1%
HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries both declined by 1.5%
ICICI Bank shed 0.8%
GDP growth fails to reverse market

Even the strong GDP data for March, driven largely by construction and manufacturing activity, failed to reverse the downward market trend. Selling pressure dominated, and only a few sectors managed to escape the slide.

Domestic growth cannot offset global uncertainty

Despite the solid performance of the Indian economy, trade-related uncertainty from the US continues to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. V. K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, noted that the anticipated hike in steel and aluminum tariffs might further shake market confidence, even against a backdrop of domestic economic resilience.

Corporate setbacks add to decline

Mphasis plunged 3.1% following reports that it had lost a long-time client, FedEx, which accounted for 8% of the company's revenue.

Niva Bupa Health Insurance tumbled 11%, marking its steepest drop since the IPO. The decline was driven by a major block deal at an 11% discount, worth $126 million, according to IFR data.

Healthcare sector moves higher

Apollo Hospitals rose 2.5% after reporting strong quarterly results, supported by sustained demand for medical services.

AstraZeneca Pharma India rallied 8.7% following a sharp increase in March profits, a result that investors welcomed with optimism.

Small- and mid-cap indices gain ground

Despite muted movement in benchmark indices, broader indices geared toward domestic demand showed greater resilience:

The mid-cap index gained about 0.4%
The small-cap index also climbed roughly 0.4%, recovering from morning losses
Schloss Bangalore stumbles on IPO debut

Schloss Bangalore, operator of The Leela luxury hotel chain, failed to impress with its market debut. The stock fell 6.7% on IPO day, a surprising signal of tepid investor interest.

Growth through worries: Markets rally, but manufacturing and Tesla stall

Markets Brush Off Tariff Threats as S&P 500 Rises
Despite fresh trade threats from President Donald Trump, U.S. markets closed higher on Monday, reflecting continued investor confidence in the progress of trade talks between the U.S. and its key economic partners.

Trump Doubles Down on Tariffs
On Friday night, Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, with the change set to take effect on Wednesday. The statement came just hours after he accused China of backtracking on previously agreed terms.

Beijing Pushes Back Firmly
In response, China labeled Trump's accusations as "groundless" and reaffirmed its commitment to defending its trade interests. Officials insisted that no consensus was breached during negotiations in Geneva.

U.S. Sets the Clock
According to a draft letter reviewed by journalists, the U.S. administration has urged its trade partners to submit final proposals by Wednesday. Washington appears determined to fast-track discussions, aiming to wrap up negotiations within five weeks.

Steel Stocks Surge, Automakers Slide
Shares of American steelmakers soared on the news. Cleveland-Cliffs led the charge, jumping 23%, while Nucor and Steel Dynamics also saw significant gains. In contrast, automakers took a hit — Ford dropped nearly 3.9%, with General Motors showing similar losses.

Storm Ahead? Markets Remain Hopeful
Analysts caution that escalating tariffs could reignite global trade tensions and dampen recent market optimism driven by a more conciliatory U.S. trade tone. For now, however, investors appear to believe that dialogue will ultimately prevail.

Markets Rally in May as Trade Tensions Ease and Earnings Impress
U.S. stock markets capped off May on a high note, with the S&P 500 delivering its strongest monthly performance since November 2023. A relaxation in trade threats and upbeat earnings reports fueled investor confidence.

Tariff Pressure Lightens — Investors Exhale
The U.S. softened its stance on tariffs toward China and backed away from confrontational rhetoric with the European Union. These diplomatic shifts, paired with improving corporate fundamentals and signs of economic resilience, helped sustain market momentum.

Indexes March Higher
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 35.41 points (+0.08%) to close at 42,305.48. The S&P 500 gained 24.25 points (+0.41%) to reach 5,935.94, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 128.85 points (+0.67%) to settle at 19,242.61.

May marked the S&P's best monthly gain in 18 months, reinforcing investor optimism after a stretch of economic uncertainty.

Energy Stocks Shine as OPEC+ Holds Steady
Shares in energy firms advanced after OPEC+ announced it would maintain July production at levels seen over the past two months. The move helped stabilize sentiment in the commodity space.

Tech Titans on the Move
Tech giants continued to attract investor capital. Nvidia rose 1.7%, while Meta (banned in Russia) jumped 3.6% amid ongoing enthusiasm for AI and digital platforms.

Tesla Stumbles in Europe
Tesla bucked the trend, sliding 1.1% after weaker-than-expected monthly sales in Portugal, Denmark, and Sweden. The drop raised concerns about the company's European market traction.

Manufacturing Contraction Signals Supply Stress
A report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that U.S. manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month in May. Supply chains have slowed, partly due to tariff-related disruptions, hinting at potential shortages in certain goods.

Fed Eyes Data Closely Amid Inflation and Labor Resilience
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan emphasized that the central bank remains in a cautious mode as inflation stays above target and labor market conditions remain strong. She noted that the Fed is scrutinizing a broad set of indicators before deciding on next steps.

Markets Bet on Rate Cuts
According to data from LSEG, traders are pricing in at least two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points by year-end. This outlook reflects growing market sentiment that the Fed may eventually move toward easing — despite persistent inflationary pressures.

All Eyes on Friday's Jobs Report
Investors are awaiting Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to offer a critical insight into how well the job market is holding up amid growing trade-related uncertainty.

European Stocks Slide as Trade Fears Weigh on Sentiment
Across the Atlantic, European markets ended lower on Tuesday, with economically sensitive sectors like banking and mining taking the brunt of investor pessimism. Hopes for a swift resolution to trade tensions continue to fade.

STOXX 600 Dips Again
The pan-European STOXX 600 index erased earlier gains, falling 0.5% by 08:30 GMT. Monday's losses deepened as the banking sector dropped 1.4%, while mining stocks declined by 2.3%.

OECD Cuts Global Growth Forecast
The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) slashed its global economic outlook. It warned that ongoing trade disputes are inflicting greater damage on the U.S. economy than previously estimated.

Markets Brace for ECB and Inflation Data
This bout of market anxiety comes just ahead of two key events: the eurozone's preliminary inflation reading and a European Central Bank policy meeting later this week, both of which could shape the region's monetary path moving forward.

Trade Uncertainty and European Political Upheaval Rattle Markets
Concerns over how President Donald Trump's tariffs will move forward continued to weigh on sentiment after facing legal hurdles last week. The White House has now requested a federal appeals court to pause a second ruling that challenged the legality of its trade measures.

U.S. Presses for Deals — Leaders May Speak Soon
Despite the courtroom drama, Washington is pushing for progress. The administration urged trade partners to submit improved proposals by Wednesday. There's growing speculation that both Trump and China's president could make public remarks this week — a possible signal that negotiations are nearing a new phase, even amid heightened tension.

Safe-Haven Sectors Rise
With market volatility on the rise, investors pivoted toward defensive sectors. Utilities and telecom companies led the charge, pushing the sector index (.SXKP) into positive territory for the day.

Dutch Government on the Brink
Adding to the global political tension, Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders announced that his party PVV would exit the ruling coalition. The move could collapse the current right-wing government and force early elections, injecting fresh uncertainty into EU politics.

The AEX index in Amsterdam dropped 0.6%, largely mirroring declines seen across broader regional markets.

Corporate Movers: Mixed Fortunes
British water company Pennon Group fell 2.1% after reporting a full-year pre-tax loss. In contrast, UBS gained 2% as Jefferies upgraded the stock from "hold" to "buy." Swiss lender Julius Baer, however, slipped 1.9% after announcing a new cost-cutting initiative targeting CHF 130 million in savings by 2028.

Cofinimmo Shares Climb on Healthcare Real Estate Merger
Belgian real estate investment firm Cofinimmo saw its stock rise 2.9% after announcing a merger with Aedifica, a property company focused on healthcare and assisted living facilities.

Strategic Expansion into Healthcare
Both firms operate in complementary segments, and the merger is expected to strengthen their combined presence in the fast-growing healthcare real estate market. Investors view the move as a smart play for long-term growth and operational synergy.

Optimism in Markets: Dollar General, Pinterest, Wells Fargo Stocks Rise to Lift Indexes

US Markets Close Higher as Chip Stocks Lead the Rally
U.S. stock indexes finished Tuesday's session in positive territory, driven by strong gains in chipmakers like NVIDIA. Investors welcomed the momentum, anticipating potential clarity on Washington's tariff policies and the prospect of renewed trade dialogue with key global partners.

Spotlight on Trump and Xi
Both President Donald Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping are expected to deliver remarks later this week, according to a Monday statement from the White House. This comes shortly after Trump accused China of breaching the Geneva agreement — a move he claims justifies the lifting of tariffs and other trade restrictions. Beijing firmly rejected the accusation, calling it unfounded and reaffirming its commitment to defending national interests.

White House Pushes for Trade Proposals by Wednesday
A draft letter circulated among negotiating partners reveals that the Trump administration is urging countries to submit their best trade offers by Wednesday. The move is part of a broader strategy to fast-track discussions and finalize agreements within a tight five-week window.

Markets Rebounded Strongly in May
The easing of harsh trade rhetoric from the White House last month reignited investor appetite for risk. As a result, the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq posted their strongest monthly percentage gains since November 2023, signaling renewed confidence in the markets.

Wall Street Closes Higher with Tech Stocks in the Lead
Tuesday's Market Summary:

Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 214.16 points (+0.51%) to 42,519.64;
S&P 500 rose by 34.43 points (+0.58%), closing at 5,970.37;
Nasdaq Composite gained 156.34 points (+0.81%), ending the session at 19,398.96.
Tech Sector Powers Ahead
The tech sector once again took center stage, with the S&P technology index (SPLRCT) advancing by 1.5%. Nvidia led the charge, with its shares surging 2.9% amid continued investor enthusiasm over AI developments.

Meanwhile, Broadcom hit a fresh all-time high after announcing it has begun shipping its newest networking chip, designed to supercharge artificial intelligence performance. The company's stock jumped 3.2% in response.

Labor Market Shows Mixed Signals
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, job openings saw an uptick in April, yet the increase in layoffs points to a cooling labor market. Economists view this as a potential consequence of lingering tariff concerns and broader economic uncertainty.

Manufacturing Orders Stumble
Census Bureau data revealed that U.S. factory orders dropped 3.7% in April — a sharp reversal from March's unrevised 3.4% jump. The fall suggests that the one-time boost from pre-tariff stockpiling has run its course.

Eyes on Friday's Jobs Report
Markets are now focused on Friday's upcoming employment data. The report is expected to offer a clearer picture of how escalating trade tensions are impacting the world's largest economy.

Wells Fargo Gains in Extended Trading
Wells Fargo shares closed up 1.2%, but extended trading saw the stock rise an additional 2%, reflecting post-market investor optimism.

Kenvue Stumbles as Retailers Slash Inventories
Shares of Kenvue tumbled by 6%, leading the losses on the S&P 500. The consumer health company revealed at a Deutsche Bank conference that retailers in both the U.S. and China are aggressively clearing out stock. The uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs has led distributors to pull back on inventory levels, putting pressure on the supply chain.

Dollar General Surges After Strong Forecast
Discount retailer Dollar General saw its stock leap 15.8% after the company raised its full-year sales outlook. Quarterly results exceeded expectations, signaling solid demand even in a choppy economic environment. Investors responded enthusiastically to the upbeat revision.

Pinterest Gets a Boost from JPMorgan Upgrade
Pinterest shares climbed 3.8% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock from "Neutral" to "Overweight." The change sparked increased buying, reflecting renewed confidence in the platform's monetization potential.

Reddit Faces Outage, Stock Dips
Reddit stock edged down 1.1% after technical issues disrupted access for more than 29,000 users, according to outage monitoring site Downdetector.com. The incident raised concerns over the platform's reliability.

Airbus Shares Take Flight Amid China Deal Rumors
European stocks posted modest gains Wednesday, supported by a 3.4% rise in Airbus shares. Bloomberg News reported that Chinese airlines may place a large aircraft order as early as next month — a development that energized investors despite broader trade worries.

STOXX 600 Extends Rally as Tariff Fears Ease
The pan-European STOXX 600 index inched up 0.3% by 07:07 GMT, extending its rebound by roughly 15% since early April lows. The positive mood was further buoyed by President Donald Trump's decision to pause broad-based tariffs and secure a trade deal with the United Kingdom.

PMI Data to Offer Insight on Tariff Impact in Europe
Later today, the release of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the UK, eurozone, Germany, and France is expected to shed light on how escalating trade tensions have shaped economic performance across the region in May. The readings may provide early signs of whether tariffs are starting to drag on business sentiment and output.

ECB Poised to Cut Rates in Policy Pivot
Investors are closely watching Thursday's European Central Bank meeting, where officials are widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. If confirmed, this would mark the ECB's first step toward monetary easing — a strategic shift aimed at shielding the eurozone economy from global uncertainty.

U.S. Jobs Report in the Spotlight
On Friday, attention will shift across the Atlantic to the highly anticipated U.S. employment report. The data could prove pivotal in shaping the Federal Reserve's next policy moves, especially as markets try to gauge the balance between slowing growth and inflation risks.

Tech and Mining Lead Gains in Europe
Most sectors in European equity markets posted gains, with technology (SX8P) and mining (SXPP) stocks leading the advance. The upbeat performance suggests renewed appetite for risk among investors seeking value in cyclical industries.

Remy Cointreau Walks Back 2030 Sales Ambitions
Shares of Remy Cointreau dropped 2.6% after the French spirits group scrapped its long-term sales growth target for 2030. The company cited a combination of persistent U.S. underperformance, global tariff pressures, and broader market volatility as key risks undermining its outlook for the coming years.