Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: July 28 2016Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is preparing to issue an economic stimulus package about the competitive sale of Japans Fuji TV last Tuesday that reached around 27 trillion yen but Japanese Yen still declined against the U.S Dollar. The exchange rate of USD/JPY is 105.568, up 0.953 or 0.91.The report from Kyodo News about the upcoming announcement of Abe made the US Dollar to gain more over Yen instead, and it approximately achieve 354 billion or 28 trillion yen.The stimulus plan of Abe is already prepared before the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan finishes on Friday. The BoJ will lend their support for the monetary policy stimulus.USD/JPY is expected to receive a support from the U.S Federal Reserve policy statement if they would release it at 1800 GMT because the Fed would not modify their interest rate in any moment. However, many investors are anticipating for a rate hike in Fed since there is a fifty percent possibility that the BoJ will have an increased on interest rate just before the December meeting take place.A Fed rate hike will probably occur this month when the U.S economic reports will suppose to have a stronger result than expected. The U.S Federal Reserve considers some improvement in the labor market, wage growth and inflation before establishing a rate hike before the year ends.An inflation hawk will allow the pair USD/JPY to make a progress but may recede if the Fed finishes a dove stances. In the rear of such issues and feedback, the main subject will be the resolution of BoJ on Friday.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017

There is no expected economic release scheduled from the Australian dollar on Friday. Investors were in a wait-and-see mode for the RBA Meeting minutes scheduled on Tuesday. Moreover, the offered tone near the greenbacks provided strength for the Aussie.

Buyers found a hurdle around 0.7700 but needed to leave off their gains.The major rebounded and stalled on top of 0.7660.

A bout of renewed buying pressure came up during Friday’s Asian session. The AUD/USD were pulled back by the buyers towards 0.7700 removing its current losses.

The 4-hour chart determines the price continuously develop above the moving averages as the 200 and 50-EMA directed higher while 100-EMA seems neutral. Resistance entered 0.7700 level, support holds 0.7650 mark.

The histogram preserved in the same region favoring buyer’s strength. RSI indicator is situated close to the overvalued area which confirms another move lower.

After making a gap on top of 0.7700, the next will be 0.7750. Failure to post its fresh gains could possibly occur some profit taking. The AUD would likely weaken reaching 0.7600-0.7620.

The upside bias continued to exist until Friday. Buyers stalled its activity during the night. Moreover, the night correction was considered as a profit-taking action of buyers who failure to hold its place.

Bulls became active in the morning trades pushing the major near 1.2400 region and slowed down further. In line with the presentation of the 4-hour chart, the price cross above the 100-EMA and confined under the 200-EMA. Meanwhile, the 200 and 100-EMAs remained to be in a bearish pattern, 50-EMA directed up as mentioned in the chart. Resistance highlighted 1.2400, support entered 1.2300.

MACD indicator strengthened confirming for a buy signal. The RSI consolidated around the positive area.

Should the GBP/USD pair accomplish to breakout from the 1.2400 mark, the next focus is 1.2500 resistance region. However, there is an outside chance for a move on top of 1.2400 due to an overbought condition. Due to this probable scenario, the Cable is expected to reverse at 1.2300.

The upside bias continued to exist until Friday. Buyers stalled its activity during the night. Moreover, the night correction was considered as a profit-taking action of buyers who failure to hold its place.

Bulls became active in the morning trades pushing the major near 1.2400 region and slowed down further. In line with the presentation of the 4-hour chart, the price cross above the 100-EMA and confined under the 200-EMA. Meanwhile, the 200 and 100-EMAs remained to be in a bearish pattern, 50-EMA directed up as mentioned in the chart. Resistance highlighted 1.2400, support entered 1.2300.

MACD indicator strengthened confirming for a buy signal. The RSI consolidated around the positive area.

Should the GBP/USD pair accomplish to breakout from the 1.2400 mark, the next focus is 1.2500 resistance region. However, there is an outside chance for a move on top of 1.2400 due to an overbought condition. Due to this probable scenario, the Cable is expected to reverse at 1.2300.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017

The Eurozone Trade Balance, particularly in Italy, presented negative results. While the greenbacks sentiment remained to be a major driver of the markets. The US dollar kept its stance near its lows on the back of slightly hawkish remarks of J. Yellen.

The common European currency spiked amid the post session of New York last Thursday. The buyers lead the price higher and broke the level 1.0750. On one side, bulls successfully edged higher towards 1.0770 in the latter part of the day and decided to stop.

The spot kept intact in a narrow range over the 1.0750 region. The neutral position was preserved amid morning session.

The 4-hour chart presented the price to develop beyond the moving averages, as the 50-EMA showed an upward crossover to the 200-EMA. The 50 and 100-EMAs advanced upwards while 200-EMA is found neutral. Resistance is at 1.0800, support lies at 1.0750.

The MACD histogram increased which suggested a buy signal. RSI have seen consolidated within the positive zone.

It is expected that the outlook, in general, will remain to be bullish due to ascending trend en route 1.0800. Nevertheless, there still a possibility of reversal towards 1.0720-1.0700.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was able to move towards 1.0800 points, with the currency pair managing to stay at over 1.0800 for a brief period. However, since the pair has not yet managed to make a clean breakthrough at this very tough barrier since it only momentarily peeked over this level, the pair’s surge was eventually met with large selling and had no choice but to retreat at just under 1.0800 points.

However, in spite of this particular occurrence, the EUR/USD pair is still trading on a somewhat stronger note, thanks to the pair’s bulls who continue to trade on a strong streak. The EUR/USD pair’s move at under 1.0800 now seems as just more of a correction as the pair’s price are still well-maintained within its range highs. This is why the currency pair might give another shot at surpassing the 1.0800 barrier for today, especially since the forthcoming French polls might have Macron as its next President after all. This is a sigh of relief especially for the EUR currency, since Le Pen, Macron’s opponent, is a widely-known critic of the euro currency. In addition, the pairs bulls are getting a lot of encouragement from the very bullish stance of the ECB, who recently stated that the strength of the euro can be mostly attributed to an improvement in the EU economy. The USD has also been struggling to make significant gains in spite of the recent rate hike and there is a very definite possibility that the pair could possibly move towards 1.1000 points once makes a clean break through 1.0850 points.

There are no major news from both the EU and the US economy for today, and this is why the EUR/USD pair might again attempt to break through its barrier. Traders could opt to wait whether the currency pair is able to surpass 1.0850 during the course of the day.

The GBP/USD pair has been consistently making its way towards 1.2500 points and it looks like the pair’s bulls are more determined than ever to break through this particular range. As of the moment, the GBP/USD pair is now trading at just beneath 1.2500 points and is bracing itself once the currency pair pushes past 1.2500 points, where it is expected to be met with a lot of sells. The bulls must be able to weather these large-scale selloffs in order for the currency pair to go past this particular barrier.

The UK economy released its inflation data yesterday with a reading of 2.3% going well beyond the initial market expectations. This, along with one of the BoE officials voting for a rate hike just goes to show that the Bank of England’s data and policy seem to be in sync, thereby causing the sterling pound to increase in value. However, now that the GBP/USD pair as well as the euro are both in a very critical situation, the market is waiting whether the currency bulls would be able to break through these respective regions.

However, the positive bearing of the sterling pound does not mean that the currency does not run any risks. We still have the nearing invocation of Article 50 as well as Scotland’s recent demand for an independence referendum, although the market has chosen not to focus on these and instead focus on the weakness of the USD. There are no major news releases coming from both the US and UK economy for today and so the market will be focusing instead on the battle at the 1.2500 barrier, with the market focusing on whether the currency pair will be finally making it through this section or weaken eventually and resort to some more consolidation for the rest of the trading day.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017

The price action of the USD/CAD pair during the previous session was mostly dictated by the Canadian retail sales data, which came out better than expected. However, one downside to this is that the positivity of the data was somewhat offset by the data last month, which was revised on a much lower level. This correction has then helped remove some of the pressure off of the currency pair and enabled it to move towards 1.3350 before finally settling at just under this particular range. The pair eventually dropped towards 1.3260 where it is currently situated.

The pair was met with a lot of buying and this has helped the pair to slowly recover towards 1.3300 points, and the correction in the country’s retail sales data enabled the pair to go even higher. The Canadian dollar has also weakened as a reaction to the repeated failed attempts of oil prices to recover from its recent slump, causing the USD/CAD pair to recover towards 1.3350 points and even surpassed this particular barrier.

For today’s session, there are no major news releases from the US economy aside from the oil inventory data, which is expected to affect the status of the CAD based on the currency’s previous price action. Expect the Canadian dollar to drop in value as a reaction to this particular data and consolidate within 1.3300-1.3400 points for the duration of today’s trading session.

The risk-off market sentiment alongside the softening of copper and other commodities affected the Australian dollar on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, the AUDUSD was neutral following the sell-off occurred on Tuesday. The sellers found a hurdle around 0.7650 mark. The handle slowed down the seller’s movement and the price was rejected. The spot was confined near the region as its progresses in an aimless manner.

The commodity-linked pair tested the 50 and 200-EMA while the 50-EMA crossed on top of the 100-EMA touching the 200-EMA as shown in the 4-hour chart. Also, the 50-EMA preserved a bullish pattern while the 100-EMA shifted downwards while the 200-EMA showed signs of being neutral.

Resistance entered 0.7700, support is at 0.7650.

The MACD declined which confirmed the weak position of the buyers. RSI oscillator en route downwards.

A break to 0.7600 region will pass the attention to the level 0.7550.

The Canadian currency was unable to sustain its upside momentum as it currently endures the continuous weakening following the weak prices of crude oil.
The greenbacks rebounded 1.3330 and reversed towards 1.3375 in which the buying impetus seems short-lived. The price headed back in the mid-session of Asia and begin to retreat afterward.

The pair continued to decline amid early European trades and attempted to cut through the 50-EMA, nevertheless, failed to do so which caused it to reenter under the moving averages. Furthermore, the 50-EMA remain to move lower, 100-EMA appeared neutral and the 200-EMA headed upwards.

Resistance covered 1.3400, support is at 1.3330.

The MACD histogram was spotted at the centerline. On one side, an entry in the positive territory will favor buyers’ strength and on the negative grounds will allow sellers seize the control within the market. RSI was confined in the neutral area.

A break under 1.3330 mark would indicate further weakening towards support level 1.3260.