Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017

The EUR/USD pair is still trading within a very limited range, although the pair’s bulls have somewhat managed to maintain its hold on the currency pair in spite of the pair’s inability to move in any definite direction for quite a while now. The pair’s bulls were initially expected to surrender its gains in order to enable the EUR to advance towards 1.0500 points at least prior to the FOMC meeting, but so far this has not yet occurred and it is possible that the minutes will be released with the EUR/USD pair still trapped within its current trading range.

The market was taken by surprise yesterday as Fed member Lacker tendered his resignation after admitting that he had leaked top-secret information with regards to the 2012 FOMC meeting to a certain financial institution. Lacker has also stated that the firm’s analysts had the said information but regardless of Lacker’s manipulation of the said statement, it remains clear that he has illegally leaked confidential information and subsequently resigned when the said scheme was revealed. The USD had surprisingly no reaction to to this particular news once it was released.

However, during today’s session, the USD backtracked across the board as the EUR/USD pair surged from 1.0650 points and traded very near its range highs of 1.0680 points. As of the moment, the market is now in a consolidating move as a lot of economic data are expected to be released later today. The ADP Employment Change data will be released today, which is an important piece of economic news since this is largely considered as a basis for the result of the NFP report. The US Manufacturing PMI data will also be released, followed by the FOMC minutes towards the close of the NY session. A volatility surge is expected prior to the release of the FOMC minutes and as such, traders are advised to tread very carefully with regards to trading with the EUR/USD pair. The pair’s bulls are most likely to dominate the pair and could enable the EUR/USD pair to inch higher during today’s series of sessions.

The USD/CAD pair briefly made it towards 1.3400 points and even managed to surpass this region following a series of very dismal economic readings from the Canadian economy. However, the advancement of the Canadian dollar was almost immediately met with tremendous pressure from sellers, causing the CAD to retreat towards 1.3400 points. Analysts are now saying that unless the USD/CAD pair manages to surpass the large-scale selling at 1.3500 points, then the currency pair would be unable to make any significant progress as of now. But the pair’s bulls have yet to reveal how they plan to handle this dilemma in the pair as the USD is expected to be more level in the next few days on the back of an increase in oil prices.

The 1.3500 region has proven to be very crucial for the USD/CAD pair since the currency pair has been unable to overcome this pair for several times in a row. The currency pair would have to have large-scale buys in order to push past through this region and reach 1.4000 points. As of the moment, the Canadian economy has been throwing up some fairly decent economic data, although the Canadian trade balance data had somewhat paled and could be a precursor to a dismal future for the country’s economy. The trade balance data was at a negative while the market was expecting a positive reading, and this basically means that the country’s imports and exports are most likely to suffer in the long run.

However, the increase in oil prices could possibly provide a short-term breather for the Canadian economy, and since the USD is expected to experience short-term consolidations, the USD/CAD pair would most likely follow this particular trend and consolidate within 1.3300-1.3500 points. However, the pair is still not strong enough to surpass 1.3500 in the near future.

For today’s session, there are no releases from the Canadian economy but the US will be releasing several economic readings, such as the ADP employment change data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The NY session could possibly be met by a significant amount of volatility and if the pair’s price touches the 1.3500 range, then this could be a great opportunity for a stop loss.

The British pound against the Japanese yen broke in the upper channel during the Wednesday session which is a sign of consolidation. The market will most likely try to reach the 140 handle but there is a noise down below for a long-term pressure. A break lower than the 50% Fibonacci retracement level gives a bearish bias which would push the trend to fall towards the 134 handle. Overall the pair gives a choppy atmosphere and with trading activity moving fast. With the ongoing Brexit process, this would affect the trading for this pair.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 7, 2017

The New Zealand dollar surged following a break higher than the peak of the hammer during the Thursday session. A strong resistance level is found at 0.70 handle. It is anticipated for the pair to have a volatility and it could increase towards the 0.71 handle when the jobs data comes out and break higher than 0.70 mark. There could also be reversals and the support level to position close to the 0.69 handle. Nevertheless, traders should expect volatility for today’s trading session.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 10, 2017

The European currency was kept intact below the pressured area against its U.S peer which would likely post further losses. Germany released a mixed data while exports and imports did not meet traders’ expectations. The strong figures of Trade Balance have given support for the EUR. On the other hand, the dovish remarks of ECB President, Draghi place pressure on the major.

The entire perspective showed moderate changes on Friday. The EUR/USD stayed near the neutral spot during the morning session as its trades close to the lower end of its weekly narrow range. Moreover, the sellers came in active in the first part of the day pulling the spot downwards. The major cut through the level 1.0650 touching 1.0630 amid late trading of Europe.
Renewed selling pressure occurred prior the New York open. Sellers were able to direct the price through the points 1.0610-1.0600.

The price settled under the moving averages as registered in the 4-hour chart, 100 and 50-EMAs turned lower while 200-EMA continued to heads up.

Resistance reached 1.0650 area, support highlighted 1.0600 region.

The MACD histogram softened which signaled sellers’ strength. RSI headed southwards confirming a current downtrend.

The spot is expected to resume a bearish tone within a short period of time. A break under 1.0600 is awaited as it may trigger for a lower support.

The Australian dollar became weak on Friday along the sluggish statistics of Performance of Construction Index. Meanwhile, the risk off sentiment amid Asian session have put pressure on risk assets including treasury yields, equities, and the Aussie.

The pair continued to be well offered last Friday and resumed a negative sentiment throughout the day. The AUD leave the region 0.7550 during the night trades extending its bearish impetus within the day.

The sellers were able to reach the 0.7515 mark and rebounded. The major hovered over its session lows until the outset of North American hours.

As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the AUD/USD is positioned under the moving averages which shifted lower. Resistance holds 0.7550, support pierced into 0.7500.

The MACD histogram sustained its level affirming sellers’ strength. RSI indicator is found near the oversold territory which signaled a lover move.

Forecast says the pair would continue to decline within a short period of time. We still expect for a further move towards 0.7500.

The Euro paired against the U.S. dollar climbed higher during Tuesday’s session as it rebounded in the support level near the 1.0580 and broke towards the 1.0600 mark. It is favorable to go long as it extended towards the 1.0630 mark. It seems that the decline in prices has reached its end and is now anticipated to rise leaving the market wondering how high can it go. However, there is not enough momentum to bring the price up since the greenback has recently recovered that brought the pair back to the 1.06 mark.

There has been a lot of happenings involving geopolitical events in the past 24 hours that shook the market causing high volatility in the trend. The tension with North Korea and the situation in Syria where U.S. is trying to take control have been increasing concern day-by-day.

Moreover, Trump is trying to regain its pride and stand in the global economy.

It seems that Trump is losing its foothold as this puts pressure in the dollar but in effect brought the price up for the EUR/USD pair instead. With all his promises such as higher infrastructure spending, lower corporate taxes, improved health care programs, these were not yet achieved and the market is becoming impatient.

For major news today, traders should look out for the U.S. Crude oil inventory data to be released today but would not have much of an effect on the EUR/USD pair. It is foreseen that the pair will most likely react but in a small range due to rising geopolitical problems and associated risks which could persist for some time.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 17, 2017

A sell-off occurred last Thursday was followed by the building recovery attempt by the single European currency on Friday. Meanwhile, sellers were unable to cut through below the region 1.0600. In light of this, the price resulted to rebound through the level during the night and trailed northwards amid day trading.

The EURUSD highlighted 1.0625 in the late session of Europe. Resistance entered the area 1.0650 while the support lies at the mark 1.0600.

A fresh bearish pressure is expected in the short-term. A breakout within 1.0600 would direct to its next objective at 1.0550.

Moreover, the major headed through 1.0650 for a correction. A gapped near the region would extend the recovery towards 1.0675. A bounced off hitherto will send back bearishness in the market.

The 1.2500 level halted the sellers activity on Thursday. The price rebounded the mark during the Asian hours and continued to climb higher. The British currency strengthen overnight and highlighted the area 1.2515 during the first part of the day.

The spot maintained a spot nearly its recent highs within the day. Resistance is at 1.2600 region, support touched the 1.2500 range.

It is much anticipated for a move below the 1.2400 area.

The US dollar crashed to its lowest levels within a five-month period against the Japanese yen as a reaction to North Korea-related tensions during the previous weekend. However, as the USD/JPY pair came within a major retracement barrier at 107.856 points, the USD managed to recover its losses and closed down on a much higher level than expected. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous session at 108.904 points.

The current volatility level of the USD/JPY pair has been mostly influenced by the price action of the US Treasuries. US bond prices crashed during the previous session immediately after reaching an all-time high since November last year. Now that both the USD/JPY pair and Treasury yields are on their lowest rungs since November 2016, a lot of investors are now speculating that the Trump administration will be unable to complete its campaign promises within the preset timeframe, including the implementation of a new healthcare plan, tax cuts, and even imposing an increased fiscal spending mechanism. In addition, some traders are also saying that the USD was propelled forward by reports that Trump is leaning towards appointing a bank-friendly figure for the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for bank supervision post.

For today’s session, the course of the USD/JPY pair is expected to be dominated mostly by investor sentiment as well as Treasury yields. The currency pair will be able to regain its momentum only if there is an increase in yields and if investors put their interests towards high-earning assets.