Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

According to the previous forecasts, the EURUSD persist in having a slow growth and it used the 1.0580 as its base. The pair were able to break the 1.0600 region overnight and settled down from the 1.0650 as of the moment. Later this day, the solid resistance seen at 1.0685 will be challenged and the price trend will be the basis for the possible uptrend of the pair.


The pair is able to rose because of the mild weakening of the USD felt all over, the instability is considered as mild since violent movements are nowhere to be seen among any currency pair. As the end of the month approach, we expect month-end flows to prevail the money flow for today. Despite the positive results of US economic data, GDP and CCI, the dollar continues to soften for the past 24 hours. The fluctuation is caused by the fear of the market regarding President-elect Donald Trump’s unsure policies. Trump is seen posting his opinions using his Twitter account which represents a not so good habit for someone who is the leader of a state.


We are expecting for Draghi's remarks for today and we suppose that his speech won’t complicate the market or either trigger volatility. We also look forward to the EUR/USD to execute trades at higher ranges characterized with a bullish sentiment.

The U.S dollar has softened since Monday while the pound also endures weakness since the week starts as it edged lower because of the end-of-month flows and due to the EU membership payments plus other driving factors.


Yesterday, the sterling established further strengthening and rebounded towards 1.2400 region and reached beyond 1.2540 level before the cable pair settled down from the 1.2500 area and this increase would be better as the weakening of the dollar continues.


The instability of the greenbacks is felt globally though other currencies remains exempted dollar’s softening. The sluggish stance is not a result of weak services data or any fundamentals but more about the market’s weariness regarding the new president of the United States who has the habit of expressing his thoughts whenever he wants to. This way the markets are uncertain about what he’s going to declare any moment.


Furthermore, we are looking forward bank stress test results from the UK. In case that the bank has favorable result we expect for additional strength for the pound which would put the GBP/USD as far as the 1.2500 region. We also await for the ADP Employment data and if the result is less than the expected, the greens will suffer another round of reduction because this report is the main indicator for the NFP on Friday.

The pound remains strong brought by the recent surge that conversely weakened the U.S. dollar. Traders attempting to reach between the 1.27 and 1.2750 range in today’s session. This gives a positive outlook for the pair with U.S. yields declining and greenback remaining weak.
The published results of the Services PMI gave high numbers at 54.2, even more than the expected value of 55.2. This indicates the continuous growth of Britain’s economy despite leaving the European Union. Concerns regarding Brexit especially the negotiations about Article 50 is still pending on what will E.U. gain from U.K. and what will those Euro leaders offer in return. Britain sees the free market access will continue while Euro leaders are careful with the negotiations as it might be taken advantage by other countries. Once the data will be released since negotiations then the U.K. economy can be finalized.


There is no major news to be published from U.K. then, the current price trend will continue. Traders could move the rate towards the 1.2800 level if the greenback continues to depreciate. It is quite difficult to reach the 1.30 mark with the downtrend being strong. If the rebound ends, the price could further go down.

The USD/CAD consolidated and tailed the direction of oil prices during the previous trading session, with the Canadian dollar slightly easing in value after oil prices displayed corrections during the trading session. The Canadian Trade Balance data also came out yesterday and exceeded initial market expectations which helped augment the value of the CAD. The currency pair mainly consolidated on both sides of the 1.3300 trading range.


The market is expecting the Federal Reserve meeting this coming mid-December, and although the Fed rate hike this December is basically minted within the market, market players are now more interested with regards to hints and guidances on the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes next year. The USD/CAD pair is expected to undergo an increase in pressure a few days prior to the Fed meeting since crude oil prices are a major factor in this issue, and another bullish stance is expected for oil prices in the coming days.


For today’s trading session, Canada is set to release a rate statement from the Bank of Canada, where the BOC is expected to maintain its rates and could give traders more insight with regards to the central bank’s stance with regards to the overall feel of the Canadian economy. Traders are expecting some hints with regards to the BOC’s views on future rate cut backs in the coming months, particularly next year.

The GBP/USD pair mostly consolidated and ranged on both sides of 1.2700 points since there was no major economic news release from the UK which could compel the pair to move, and this is why the currency pair had a muted session yesterday. However, since the Federal Reserve’s meeting is expected to induce volatility in the financial market, especially since the Fed is expected to announce its much-anticipated rate hike in this particular meeting. Market players are also expecting to receive hints with regards to the central bank’s future rate hikes in order to determine the USD’s direction in the short run. However, if the meeting fails to give out hints with regards to the bank’s future moves, then this could induce a weakness in the US dollar.


Meanwhile, the UK is currently bearing the brunt of the Brexit process, which is expected to last for a couple of years since this will most likely involve heated discussions with leaders from all over the eurozone in order to send out a warning to other EU countries wanting to go in the same direction as the UK.


For today’s trading session, the UK Manufacturing Production data is set to be released during the European session, and market players are expecting the data to come out as positive. If the data does come out as highly positive, then traders can expect the pair to hit 1.2800 points. Otherwise, the pair could continue consolidating on both sides of the 1.2700 region.

The USD/CAD is currently still subject to increased pressure after crude oil prices surged during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair is expected to experience this particular pressure as long as oil prices continue to fluctuate and would only cease once crude oil prices reach equilibrium. If this phenomenon happens, then the strength of the USD would most likely dominate the currency pair, and the weak value of the CAD would cause the currency pair to increase in value.


Although the Canadian dollar is currently strengthening, its price is expected to drop once crude oil prices stop its fluctuations and cease from moving upwards, especially since certain issues with the NAFTA agreement will be reopened due to Trump’s re-negotiation, and any changes with this particular agreement would have a significant effect on the trade relationships between Canada and US. The CAD could also weaken due to minor market speculations that the Bank of Canada would be implementing rate cuts next year, and unless the currency pair manages to break through 1.3000, then the USD/CAD will continue to be on the upward trend with a target of 1.4000 points.


There are no major economic news releases expected from the Canadian economy for today’s trading session, and while the US will be releasing its UoM Consumer Sentiment data, this particular piece of news from the region is not expected to have a major impact on the market in general. Market players will now be shifting their focus to US yields, as well as on the scheduled Fed meeting next week, where the Fed is expected to finally implement its much-awaited interest rate hike. However, this event does not automatically translate to an increase in the value of the USD, but the market is expected to receive hints with regards to the Fed’s rate hikes this coming 2017.

The GBP/USD pair consolidated poorly during yesterday’s trading session after the sterling pound was adversely affected by the recent sharp drop in the value of the euro. The previous trading session initially started on a positive note for the GBP after it managed to regain some of its previous losses, causing the currency pair to hit 1.2700 points during the Tokyo and European trading session. However, the release of the ECB announcement caused the euro to incur massive losses, with the EUR/GBP pair experiencing devaluation. This then triggered the GBP/USD to retreat from 1.2700 and is currently hovering at the 1.2600 region.


The GBP/USD is expected to consolidate further with a somewhat bearish note as the euro tries to recover from this very significant loss of value. The Federal Reserve will be meeting at the start of next week, and the market currently has rate hike expectations of up to 0.25%. The dollar is then expected to exhibit weakness once the announcement from the Fed is released, and market liquidity is also expected to be relatively low during this particular period.


For today’s trading session, there are no major economic news releases from the UK, and the GBP/USD would most likely consolidate further along with a bearish stance and will be subject to added downward pressure due to the recent weakness in the value of the EUR.

The GBP/USD pair had a lackluster performance during the entirety of last week’s trading sessions since the sterling pound experienced constant pressure from the much stronger euro. The EUR plummeted last week after the ECB announced its plans to extend its quantitative easing program, and the EUR/GBP lost a significant amount of its value, causing the sterling pound to be affected as well. Prior to this sudden drop in value, the GBP has previously exhibited remarkable resiliency in spite of the confusion caused by the Brexit process. The GBP rose during the first part of last week and was even able to go through 1.2700 points before eventually reaching 1.2800 points before the announcement from the ECB dragged the GBP down.


The GBP was also subject to added pressure due to delays in the implementation of the Brexit strategies as the Parliament is in the middle of heated debates regarding the implementation of Article 50 on the region. Since the timeline for the Brexit remains uncertain in spite of numerous meetings and debates within the Parliament, the sterling pound is expected to remain under pressure and any form of reversion should be immediately seen as a sell-off opportunity for the currency pair.


For this week, the market is expecting the release of the CPI data as well as the Claimant count change data from the from the UK. The Bank of England is also expected to make a statement on whether the central bank would be maintaining its current interest rate of 0.25%, and the Fed is also scheduled to make an announcement regarding its interest rate hike, as well as a statement on whether the central bank will be adding up the frequency of its rate hikes next year. Due to the large number of economic data scheduled to be released this week, the market is expected to undergo an especially high level of volatility within the week.

The USD/CAD was subject to pressure for the majority of last week’s trading sessions due to the continued buoyancy of oil prices despite a short drop in the commodity’s price. Since the Canadian dollar is hugely reliant on crude oil prices and with the fluctuations in oil prices, the CAD has been subject to wildly erratic activity during the past week as well. Presently, market players are expecting that oil prices would experience further surges during this week and the USD/CAD is expected to be subject to more pressure for this week as well.


The economic releases from Canada last week turned out to be pretty positive, with the Canadian trade balance data clinching the string of positive economic data from the region. The Bank of Canada has also decided last week that it will be sustaining its rates at 0.5%, signalling remarkable improvements in the Canadian economy and is expected to further improve due to future increases in oil prices. The currency pair is now forming strong support bases at the 1.3180 trading region.


For this week, the Federal Reserve is set to release its statement with regards to its long-anticipated interest rate hike, and the market currently has expectations of a 0.25% interest rate hike, plus hints on whether the central bank would be increasing the frequency of its hikes this coming 2017. The US is also set to release its retail sales data, while Canada will be releasing its Manufacturing Sales data, and these are expected to induce volatility for the USD/CAD this week. Analysts are speculating that if the pair manages to sustain its place at the 1.3000 region, then the currency pair would be able to continue its upward direction especially since crude oil prices could become tapered in the near future.

The decision of the ECB to maintain its monetary policy had strengthened the dollar. However, the euro is weakening once again after it made a dipped on its fresh monthly highs and failed to hold its gains. Meanwhile, the EURUSD headed southwards on Friday. During the EU hours, the sellers successfully broke the 1.0600 region then continued to lead the prices through the 1.0550 lower, the pair surpass this level amid the NY session. The price rebounded in the 200-EMA downwards as shown in the 4-hour chart. After the euro and greens had broke both 50 and 100-EMAs, it continued to progress down in the moving averages. While the 100 and 200 EMAs preserved its bearish bias, 50 EMA rendered a neutral stance. Resistance touched the area of 1.0600, support is seen at 1.0550.


The MACD histogram makes its entry point within the negative zone. Should the indicator kept unmoved in the negative area, the sellers are able to gain further strength. The RSI remains oversold.


In case the prices settled below the 1.0600 support level, this will cause for a short-term downtrend. The next target of the sellers is 1.0500 and 1.0550.