Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 11, 2024

The price has repeatedly pierced the 1.0724 support level on the daily chart but has failed to consolidate below it. A divergence has formed with the Marlin oscillator in its attempts to reach the target level of 1.0667

The price might rise above the 1.0777 level again, even if the upward momentum does not fully develop. Overall, the trend remains bearish, as price movement is occurring below the indicator lines, and Marlin is still undecided about crossing into positive territory.

On the four-hour chart, the price has successfully consolidated below 1.0724. Now, it remains to be seen whether the price will reclaim this level and attempt to rise toward 1.0777. If the price shows no such intention, the target support at 1.0667 will likely be reached. The next target would be 1.0636, the May 31, 2023 low.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 12, 2024

Despite the public holiday in the United States, the market remained active, and the euro continued to lose ground. The reason lies in the aftermath of the elections. While the outcomes of the presidential and Senate elections are clear, the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives remains uncertain. Yesterday, it was reported that the Republican Party is on the verge of securing a majority in both chambers of Congress. This scenario implies that nothing would prevent the Republicans from passing a new tariff law, primarily affecting the European Union—already in a fragile state. Germany's economy seems to have narrowly avoided slipping into recession, though most economists believe it is inevitable and likely to begin next quarter. The introduction of higher tariffs by the U.S. would only exacerbate the European economy's issues. In other words, political factors have retaken center stage, and investors are closely monitoring developments in the House of Representatives. With the vote count nearing completion, clarity is expected in the coming days. Should the Republican Party secure victory, the euro will weaken further. Conversely, if the Democrats gain the majority, a significant rebound could occur, potentially leading to a correction. For now, macroeconomic data will play a secondary role. Moreover, with tomorrow's U.S. inflation report looming, the macroeconomic calendar remains relatively empty until then.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 13, 2024

Although the counting of votes for the House of Representatives is not yet complete, there is no longer any doubt that the Republican Party has achieved a resounding victory, securing complete control of both the executive branch, through the White House, and the legislative branch, with a majority in both chambers of Congress. Unsurprisingly, the euro continued to lose ground, as one of the first decisions likely to be made could involve raising tariffs, primarily targeting European manufacturers. Moreover, the trend toward further euro weakening could be exacerbated by U.S. inflation data. Judging by forecasts, the pace of consumer price growth is expected to accelerate from 2.4% to 2.6%. If this forecast is confirmed, the Federal Reserve will likely pause in its trajectory of further monetary policy easing.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on November 14, 2024

The British pound broke through the target support level of 1.2708 yesterday and shows no signs of stopping. It appears to have sufficient bearish potential to reach the nearest target, 1.2612, and the next one, 1.2510.

Yesterday's U.S. inflation data revealed an increase in the CPI from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Market participants have raised the likelihood of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its December and March meetings. However, as government bond yields showed little change by the end of the day after brief volatility, the pound continued its downward momentum.

No reversal elements are observed on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator's current rise reflects a discharge of tension, preparing for further decline. The Marlin signal line aims to test the lower boundary of the descending green channel.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 15, 2024

The recent U.S. inflation data suggest a potential pause in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting process, and Jerome Powell explicitly stated this. This comes alongside producer price data, which shows that growth accelerated from 1.9% to 2.4%. By year-end, discussions about a potential rate hike could resurface, as the data hint at the possibility of inflation rebounding. Additionally, industrial production decline in the Eurozone accelerated from -0.1% to -2.8%, resembling an outright collapse. However, the dollar failed to strengthen. The U.S. currency remained flat, partly due to its already massive overbought condition following its relentless and substantial rally since the presidential elections. More significantly, data on Chinese retail sales halted the dollar's rise, which showed that growth accelerated from 3.2% to 4.8%, surpassing the forecast of 4.0%. Concerns about a slowing Chinese economy have been one of the key drivers of the dollar's strength since late September. Signs of recovery in China's economic activity could serve as a basis for a potential reversal and the start of a weakening dollar trend. That said, the dollar is likely to continue its upward trajectory today. According to forecasts, U.S. industrial production growth is expected to accelerate from 1.7% to 1.9%, while industrial production decline should ease from -0.6% to -0.4%.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 18, 2024

The price has been correcting from the support area at 1.0483 since Friday and this morning. The 1.0590 resistance level has already been tested. As the Marlin oscillator has turned upward, the price may attempt to overcome this level and extend the correction toward 1.0636. Additionally, today's Eurozone trade balance data for September is expected to show growth from 4.6 billion euros to 7.9 billion euros.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, suggesting it aims to assist the price in breaking above the nearest resistance level.

The second target, 1.0636, will soon receive reinforcement from the MACD line, which converges toward it. From the 1.0636 level, we anticipate a price reversal into a new downward wave targeting the untested range of 1.0449–1.0483.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 20, 2024

The final inflation data for the Eurozone confirmed the preliminary estimate, showing an acceleration in consumer price growth from 1.7% to 2.0%, entirely in line with expectations. As a result, there was no market reaction, and the pair continued to consolidate near its previous levels. This trend will likely persist due to the lack of significant macroeconomic events on the calendar. Consolidation could even evolve into stagnation, as notable macroeconomic data is only scheduled for release on Friday. This includes the preliminary estimates of business activity indices. Unless something unexpected happens, the market will likely remain in a state of relative equilibrium for the rest of the week.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 21. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The test of the 155.65 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped to the target level of 155.16. The U.S. dollar remains in demand despite expectations of an interest rate hike in Japan. Today's speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda had a noticeable impact on financial markets, leading to a slight yen strengthening. Speaking at a press conference, Ueda emphasized the need to evaluate the current economic situation further and adapt monetary policy to global changes. His comments on a potential policy shift amid inflationary pressures sparked some interest, although he provided no definitive recommendations. According to economists, short-term expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan became more justified after the governor's speech, prompting a drop in the USD/JPY pair. However, this has not affected the broader upward trend. Considering the challenges facing Japan's economy during recovery, Ueda noted that a readiness to adjust rates could bolster confidence in the yen. Still, given the global dominance of the U.S. dollar against various risk assets, caution is advised when selling the pair. For intraday strategies, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Scenarios Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 155.04 entry level (green line on the chart) with a target of 155.66 (thicker green line on the chart). At 155.66, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 pip reversal from the entry point. Growth in the pair is possible, but it is better to buy on corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone and the pair tests 154.55 twice consecutively. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 155.04 and 155.66 can be expected. Sell Scenarios Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below the 154.55 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.97, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 pip reversal. Downward pressure on the pair may persist during the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone and the pair tests 155.04 consecutively. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 154.55 and 153.97 can be expected.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on November 22, 2024

The British pound broke below the 1.2612 support level yesterday, but the Marlin oscillator did not confirm the move. Instead, it reversed and formed a weak convergence with the price.

If the price consolidates above 1.2612, the recent dip below support will be interpreted as a false breakout, serving as an additional signal for a potential upward reversal. The first target for a corrective rise is 1.2708. If the price moves to test the 1.2510 support, the reversal may be delayed for several days.

The price is moving below the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart. It has settled below the 1.2612 level, and the Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory. However, if the price consolidates above 1.2612, this scenario will become more plausible as the Marlin oscillator already shows signs of an intention to return to positive territory. Afterward, the price may attempt to overcome the MACD line at 1.2675. The probability of a reversal into a corrective movement is estimated at 65%.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 25, 2024

On Friday, the euro made a decisive move downward, testing the linear supports on the weekly chart. The Marlin oscillator on the weekly timeframe reached significant support at -0.0450, signaling a potential rebound into a correction.

The target level of 1.0350 was reached on the daily chart, indicated by a long lower shadow suggesting a potential reversal. The price may return to the target range of 1.0590–1.0636. Notably, the levels 1.0777 and 1.0882 align with the 50.0% and 61.8% retracement levels, further reinforcing their importance as potential points of attraction.

However, the expected recovery may not come easily. The opening gap adds complexity to this rise. If this gap is not closed today or tomorrow, the rally will unlikely extend beyond the first target range of 1.0590–1.0636.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating within the range of 1.0449–1.0483, waiting for stronger signals. Since the price failed to break through this range on the first attempt, stopping at the balance line resistance (red moving average), the gap may close according to the usual pattern—on the same day it was formed. From there, the euro will need renewed momentum to overcome the resistance range of 1.0449–1.0483 and the MACD line, which is rapidly approaching this zone.

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