Forecasting

newdigital, could you please explain in short what these indicators mean? I did'n get it...

The pair seemed to start an overall up-trend at the beginning of the week, but I don't really think it can break the resistance level of 1.0848 in the near future.

You mean - forecasting indicators from this thread?
They based on the theories, for example (this article and this one):

The k-Nearest Neighbor algorithm (k-NN) searches for k past patterns (neighbors) that are most similar to the current pattern and computes the future prices based on weighted voting of those neighbors.

Yeah, exactly!
I meant the first page reply right after black screens with Alpari.
Thank you so much for the links, I'll learn the theory.

The following are 11 signs that we are entering the next phase of the global economic crisis:

• #1 It is being projected that half of all fracking companies in the United States will be “dead or sold” by the end of this year.
• #2 The rig count just continues to fall as the U.S. oil industry implodes. Incredibly, the number of rigs in operation in the United States has fallen for 19 weeks in a row.
• #3 McDonald’s has announced that it will be closing 700 “poor performing” restaurants in 2015. Why would McDonald’s be doing this if the economy was actually getting better?
• #4 We could be right on the verge of a Greek debt default. In fact, we learned on Thursday that the Greek government has been “running on empty” for months.
• #5 Coal accounts for approximately 40 percent of all electrical generation on the entire planet. When the price of coal starts to drop, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down. Just prior to the last financial crisis in 2008, the price of coal shot up dramatically and then crashed really hard. Well, guess what? The price of coal has been crashing again, and it is already lower than it was at any point during the last recession.
• #6 The price of iron ore has been crashing as well. It is down 35 percent in the last nine months, and David Stockman believes that this is because of a major deflationary crisis that is brewing in China.
• #7 At this point, China accounts for more total global trade than anyone else in the world. That is why it is so alarming that Chinese imports and exports are both absolutely collapsing.
• #8 The number of publicly traded companies in the United States that filed for bankruptcy during the first quarter of 2015 was more than double the number that filed for bankruptcy during the first quarter of 2014.
• #9 New home sales in the United States just declined at their fastest pace in almost two years.
• #10 U.S. manufacturing data has been shockingly weak lately.
• #11 When priced according to “the average blue-collar hourly wage“, U.S. stocks are the most expensive that they have ever been in history right now. To say that this financial bubble is overdue to burst is a massive understatement.

For a long time, I have been pointing to 2015 as a major “turning point” for the global financial system, and I still feel that way.



the source

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (BTMU) made their fundamental forecasts for EURUSD based on some fundamental factors:

• "The euro weakened in July with the focus in the foreign exchange market shifting away from the uncertainty related to ‘Grexit’ and back to the monetary policy divergence between the euro-zone and the US. That should mean that the euro reverts to being the funding currency of choice."
• "We suspect there’s a lot more potential selling to come."
• "However, falling oil prices, if extended, will complicate the ECB’s achievement of its inflation target that could mean the ECB needs to extend QE while China weakness that keeps capital flowing out of China means reduced FX reserves that removes reverse recycling support for the euro as well."
• "Despite the resolution to the crisis in Greece, at least for now, we maintain that the fundamentals point to renewed EUR weakness and a decline in EUR/USD toward parity."

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (BTMU) forecasts for EURUSD to be at parity by year-end and at 0.96 by Q1'16-end.

the source

Deutsche Bank long-term forecasts:

i-DRProjections - indicator for MetaTrader 4

This is the other version of forecasting indicator (i-DRProjections). The indicator is forecasting the daily high/low for the current day. It means: if we attach this indicator when the market will be opened so we can get predicted high/low for this day for example:

Prediction of the daily price ranges. This indicator shows the current day support and resistance levels forecast on the bases of the previous day price levels. The formula for calculating the levels are described in Thomas Demark's The New Science of Technical Analysis.

The indicator can be used with doji detect indicator 9attached) or with any support/resistance indicators for example.

W1 price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

• 1375.11 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 1302.36 support level located above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started on weekly chart.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the correction to be started, but Absolute Strength indicator and Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator are evaluating the future trend as the ranging bullish condition, and Tenkan-sen line located to be above Kijun-sen line are indicating for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.

By the way, the bearish reversal level is 1171.88, and if the price breaks this level to below so the global bearish reversal will be started for this and next year for example.

• If the price breaks 1375.11 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
• If weekly price breaks 1302.36 support level on close bar to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
• If weekly price breaks 1171.88 support level on close bar to below so we may see the reversal of the weekly price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
• If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
1352.53	1302.36
1367.22	1210.69
1375.11	1171.88

Trend:
W1 - bullish ranging within the levels

Everything Goldman Sachs predicts for 2017 - in one chart

the source

US Dollar Q1 2017 Forecast - Dollar Draws on Many Sources to Extend 14-Year High

Fundamental Analysis

• "While the US economy is not on a runaway pace, it has nevertheless proven robust over the years while other major economies have wavered. In this environment where appetite for return is so prominent, a competitive economic pace can draw capital as readily as a central bank rate hike – and critically, more consistently. The promise of fiscal stimulus targeting infrastructure could significantly augment the pace of expansion and further draw contrast to those countries that have stagnated. The approval and details of the program remain to be seen, but a degree of speculative anticipation is already priced in."
• "While the promise of a more robust economy is a draw for investment and thereby lever for the currency, it is speculation of interest rate hikes that provides the practical expectation for return. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hikes rates for the second time in its very nascent hawkish regime on December 14th. That represented a 12-month gap between moves, but the second increase was full expected. Heading into the two-day meeting, the market had fully priced in the hike. The hawkish winds were further lifted by the forecasts for interest rates over the coming three years. In particular, the group increased its expectation for hikes in 2017 from two to three 25 basis point moves. That was the first time in 18 months that the central bank had increased its forecasts."
• "Though it hasn’t evoked this role in some time, it is important to remember that the Dollar is an ultimate safe haven asset. Yet, to truly take advantage of that position, the collapse in sentiment would need to be market-wide and intense. As it happens, a moderate degree of speculative flight would likely hurt the Greenback as it would curb rate expectations. In fact, through the past two years, the correlation between the DXY Dollar Index and VIX has flipped its traditional correlation to an unusual inverse relationship. A steady course for the global financial system and economy would bode well for the Dollar through rate speculation while intense risk aversion could recharge a long-dormant and significantly undervalued theme. In between these extremes though, the currency could very well struggle."

Technical Analysis

• "The DXY rally has now pushed above the 61.8% retracement of the 2001-2008 decline (101.80). From my perspective, the time element of the cycle is most interesting. The rally from March 2008 is now in its 105th month (as of December 2016). There have been 2 longer USD cycles; the 1992-2001 rally lasted 106 months and the end of Bretton Woods to 1978 decline lasted 109 months."
• "Finally, the shape of the rallies from 1992 and 2008 are similar and the wave counts might end up as identical. Proposed wave C now subdivides into 5 waves which indicates high risk of a top. It’s noted too that wave 5 already equals wave 1 (in points…not %) at 103.32. The angle of the rallies on the monthly log chart are defined by the B-2 line. The median lines for both sequences were support for waves 4 of C. After the 2001 top, the median line was support on the first leg down and the break of the ML signaled the onset of the bear."

read more here