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Forecasting

This is a discussion on Forecasting within the General Discussion forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Hello everyone, I`m Chris and I`m interested in Forecasting. I believe I went through most important threads about this subject ...

          
   
  1. #1
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    Forecasting

    Hello everyone,

    I`m Chris and I`m interested in Forecasting. I believe I went through most important threads about this subject on the Internet. I`ve been searching, testing, and now I have some thoughts to share and see what pros can tell about it. I`m a binary options trader and the goal which I want to achieve is to predict if price goes up or down on the end of the day. Forecasting seems to be a good way to search for a proper strategy.

    I found the thread about forecasting on TSD couple of months ago. Since that time I`m testing and analyzing programs that seemed to be interesting. In my opinion FuturoFX and WmiFor are best that I found. But maybe there are better programs out there.

    I have attached those programs to my charts and waited to see if the prediction is good or not. Unfortunately there were far far away from truth in most of cases.

    And then I started thinking, that these programs must have potential. But how to use it? I`m rather technical trader then fundamental and I truly believe in the idea, that market is not chaotic and everything what happened in the past, will also happen in the future. Then the simple solution came to my mind. If these programs analyzing the past and give their prediction upon those patterns in the past, then I have to feed it with more data! I don`t know, maybe I`m making a fool of myself and everyone knows that, but I didn`t find any post about downloading as much as possible data if using forecasting programs. So I have downloaded historical data from Alpari server and now I have data till 1970 in most volatile pairs as far as I remember. Now FuturoFX can analyze about 170000 M30 candles instead of default 1440. So I tested it once again. And I have to say that was beautiful. Having seen the forecast in the morning and then almost the same pattern coming up live. One thing I noticed is that the program can forecast the whole pattern, I mean “the big picture”, but unfortunately highs and lows are unpredictable. It would be too good to be true.

    Forecasting-eurjpy-1.jpgForecasting-eurjpy-2.jpg

    As we can see, the big picture is right, but the strength of moves is different. Anyway, we can see nice uptrend during the upcoming day. It was a winning trade.

    Forecasting-usdchf-1.jpgForecasting-usdchf-2.jpg

    Beautiful prediction and even prettier fulfilling. As we can see predicted upward was far smaller then the real one, but it was predicted then nice downward and sideways. Everything in place. That was also winning trade. But now let`s look at those less interesting example, but inevitable.

    Forecasting-gbpusd-1.jpgForecasting-gbpusd-2.jpg

    It went completely other way round. Fortunately it is minority I have also noticed, that not a single “yellow line” answers to one candle which logical thinking could suggest.

    And now there is some questions. Due to my tests, most accurate predictions on H1 timeframe were on EURJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, EURGBP. Why these pairs? Because of their volatility? Apart from them I tested EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, AUDJPY. All failed. Is it wise to eliminate those pairs only after a month of testing? Maybe some adjustment? I`m testing those pairs now on M30 and I think it is more comfortable to read the prediction than on H1. One week left to see results. I wanted to select the best pairs on H1 and M30 and then test it for a whole month.

    How about predicting price on the end of the week or month? Is it easier to predict upcoming hour or upcoming week or maybe month? Which has bigger probability?

    What about the news? Is it wise not to trade using forecasting programs during important news? I mean NFP, GDP, inflation reports? There is huge volatility sometimes during these kind of news, but could it affect the daily trend? Or maybe market tries to stabilize itself and come back to daily trend?

    Regarding to candles analyzed by FuturoFX, 170000 candles on M30 timeframe it`s nearly 15 years! If I counted it in a proper way. Best predictions are from around 5 to 10 years backward.

    I know it`s so many questions but I think it is an interesting subject to talk about.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Forecasting-eurjpy-1.jpg   Forecasting-eurjpy-2.jpg   Forecasting-usdchf-1.jpg   Forecasting-usdchf-2.jpg  
    Last edited by Chris1303; 04-11-2013 at 03:59 PM.

  2. #2
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    Hi Chris1303,

    Nice to meet you here. I like forecasting in any way. And there are many indicators about it. About your questions - as to me so I like forecasting for majors + XAUUSD etc ... but it is my personal sorry.

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    Yes I also thought that XAUUSD is good for forecasting, but was unable to find good historical data. Do you have some personal observations regarding to time? Is it easier to predict upcoming hour or upcoming week or maybe month? Which has bigger probability? This is the main question that intrigues me.

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    XAUUSD? yes I like this pair.

    As to M30 so it may be the following:

    Forecasting-xauusd-m30-alpari-nz-limited-23.png


    More interesting situation is for H4:

    Forecasting-xauusd-h4-alpari-nz-limited.png


    About H4 - Chinkou Span line (white color line) is very near to the price. If it will be crossed the price from above to below - it will be good downtrend. If not so we will have ranging market condition as secondary trend but ... anyway ... primary trend is bearish so ... if we can see this marker rally so it will be bearish rally just for sure.

    When the market of this pair may be fully reversed to bullish? when the price will cross Sinkou Span B line (one of the border of Ichimoku cloud) on closed bar (just move your mouse to the border of the cloud to see the name of this line).

    So, my evaluation:
    • in the near future: ranging
    • in long term trend: bearish

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    Right, you don`t need huge historical data to this method. That is a nice analysis, thanks. Could you post those indicators? I would like to try it your way.

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    Those indicators were created by Igorad and he is posting them on this forum in slowly way.
    By the way - the main indicator is standard Ichimoku.

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    Ok, thank you very much newdigital

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    About market condition evaluation - there is some thread with those indicators but for MT5 platform only sorry.

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    What I was talking here before - it was about market condition. About real forecasting - look at those images:

    Forecasting-fore1.jpg


    Forecasting-fore2.jpg


    Forecasting-fore3.jpg


    Forecasting-fore4.jpg


    Forecasting-fore5.jpg


    I will upload those forecasting indicators today on this thread.

  10. #10
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    I think - this Vanga indicator works for forrecasting - you can see here:

    Forecasting-forec_2.jpg


    I mean - I will close my sell trades in profit now and will open buy.

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