Forecasting

Just found this interesting tool related to MA here

Concerning to this market analysis for EURUSD before nfp - read 2 posts on this thread ...

same template from that thread but + Vanga forecasting indicator :

same template from that thread but + WmiFor30 indicator :

same template from that thread but + NearestNeighbor_v1 indicator :

Hi Newdigital,
Nice work, so which indi calculation is better?

I like Vanga indicator ... but those kind of indicators do not work during high impacted news events sorry

Future MA indicator



futureMA.ex4

futurema_v1.02.ex4

Aussie Dollar Focused on China Growth Bets, Fed Taper Outlook

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Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

• Australian Dollar Looks to HSBC PMI Data to Help Establish China Growth Outlook
• FOMC Minutes to Drive Aussie Volatility as Risk Trends Respond to QE Taper Bets

The Australian Dollar managed to reverse all of its intraweek losses to close Friday’s trade with a slight gain as risk appetite firmed following supportive comments from Fed Chair nominee Janet Yellen in her confirmation hearing yesterday. The would-be successor to Ben Bernanke said she saw dangers in ending QE too early, saying the Fed must not remove policy support while the recovery remains “fragile”. She added that there is “no set time” for tapering asset purchases. Investors took the remarks as confirmation of Yellen’s dovish credentials, speculating that her ascendancy will translate into a longer-lasting “full-sized” QE3 effort.

News-flow out of also China helped as the official Xinhua news agency began to unveil the details of the reforms agreed-upon at the third plenary session of the Communist Party that concluded on November 12. A wide range of initiatives is to be undertaken, with some of the most notable including: establishing more free trade zones, granting permission for private investors to set up small banks, easing of the one-child policy, and loosening the “hukou” system (which eats away at disposable incomes by denying access to social services to migrant workers, forcing them to pay for them out of pocket). The deadline to implement these policy objectives has been set to 2020.

Looking ahead, a quiet domestic economic calendar is likely to see the same forces in the forefront. Indeed, minutes from this month’s RBA meeting amount to the only bit of noteworthy Australian event risk. The release tends to fall closely in line with the policy statement released at the time of the original rate decision announcement, meaning traders are unlikely to find anything materially game-changing in the text to spark Aussie volatility. In China, all eyes will be on HSBC’s November flash Manufacturing PMI report. A close relationship between Chinese GDP growth expectations and the Australian unit suggests signs of slowing factory-sector activity are likely to weigh on the currency, and vice versa.

On the risk sentiment front, all eyes will be on the release of minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting as Fed “taper” speculation continues. Investors will carefully comb through the language of the release to help establish the extent to which Fed officials saw fiscal drag from October’s US government shutdown delaying a cutback in asset purchases. Recalling the ultimately unfounded fears of fiscal retrenchment from the payroll tax hike and “sequester” spending cuts on the US recovery earlier this year, Ben Bernanke are unlikely to have been especially concerned, at least absent concrete data arguing otherwise. This may boost the US Dollar and weigh on the Aussie after Yellen primed the market for a dovish policy lean once again. Retail Sales and CPI releases headline the US data docket.

Is the Gold Rebound Over? Techs Suggest No, FOMC to Confirm

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Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bullish

• Gold Follows Through on Inside Day Trade Setup
• Gold Prices Forecast to Fall Further
• Commodities: Crude Oil, Gold Look to US Jobs Data for Direction

Gold prices snapped a two week losing streak with the yellow metal up a fractional 0.02% ahead of the of New York close on Friday. Despite the rather negligible change on the week, prices did see a good deal of volatility as waning strength in the greenback helped gold mount a counteroffensive off key support earlier in the week. Note that the Gold/USD inverse correlation hit its strongest levels since early 2012 this week and USDOLLAR price action may continue to offer guidance as we move deeper into November trade.

Investors will be closely eying economic data as the US docket picks back up with retail sales, existing home sales, and minutes from the latest FOMC policy meeting on tap. In the wake of the stronger than expected NFP and GDP reads earlier this month, the prints could offer some volatility as improving US data continues to limit the Fed’s scope to maintain its ultra-accommodative stance. As such, look for strong US metrics to possibly limit this near-term advance in the meantime as traders look to the Fed for further clarity on future policy.

Aside from the data, look for central bank rhetoric to shift broader market sentiment with 8 of the 12 voting FOMC members scheduled to speak over the coming days. With the market’s central focus fixated on central bank forward guidance, all eyes turn to the FOMC with a barrage of speeches from the likes of Rosengren, Dudely, Evans, Bullard, Powell, George, Tarullo and the Fed Chairman himself. As Fed Chair nominee Yellen refrains from undermining the taper-timeline laid out by Ben Bernanke, fresh developments from the FOMC Minutes / Fed speeches may heavily impact gold prices next week as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. Look for a more dovish stance to sustain the recent rebound off key support – while a more hawkish tone would likely offer a pullback into favorable long entries in the near-term.

From a technical standpoint, gold failed to break below key support at $1268/70 and with inside day made on Wednesday, the risk of a more meaningful rebound higher here remains our focus. As such, our near-term bias shifts to the topside above key support noting resistance targets at $1299, $1306 and the 61.8% retracement from the decline off the October high at $1323. The broader outlook remains bearish below the November opening range highs at $1327. A break / close below $1268 puts the broader decline off the October high back into play with targets eyed at the 61.8% extension taken from the August high / the October low at $1249/50, and a key Fibonacci confluence at $1233/34.

EUR/USD weekly outlook: November 18 - 22

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The euro rose to one week highs against the dollar on Friday as comments by Federal Reserve Chairwoman nominee Janet Yellen were seen as supportive of the bank’s monetary stimulus program.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3497, up from Thursday’s close of 1.3457. For the week the pair rose 0.66%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3417, Thursday’s low and near-term resistance at 1.3525.

The greenback turned lower after testimony from Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Thursday was seen as cementing the view that the bank will keep its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in place until early next year.

Ms. Yellen said it was "imperative" that the Fed does everything in its power to ensure a robust recovery. She said the quantitative easing program would not continue indefinitely but the timescale for reducing it would be data dependent.

The comments came during a Senate confirmation hearing to take over from Ben Bernanke as head of the central bank in February.

Sentiment on the greenback was also hit by unexpectedly weak U.S. manufacturing data on Friday.

The Federal Reserve’s Empire state manufacturing index fell to -2.21 this month from 1.52 in October. Economists had forecast a rise to 5.0.

A separate report showed that U.S. industrial production fell 0.1% in October, after rising by 0.7% in September, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase.

The euro’s gains were held in check after data on Thursday showed that the euro zone recovery slowed more than expected in the third quarter.

Euro zone gross domestic product expanded 0.1% in the three months to September, slowing from the 0.3% growth achieved in the second quarter when the euro zone exited a recession. Economist had forecast quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.2%.

The euro zone economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.4% in the third quarter, worse than expectations for a 0.3% contraction, after shrinking at an annual rate of 0.6% in the previous quarter.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting. The U.S. is also to release data on retail sales and consumer prices.

The euro zone is to release data on manufacturing and services sector activity and the ZEW Institute is to release its report on German economic sentiment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 18

The euro zone is to release data on the current account balance.
The U.S. is to release private sector data on the outlook for the housing sector.

Tuesday, November 19

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release data on the employment cost index, an important inflationary indicator.

Wednesday, November 20

In the euro zone, Germany is to release data on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to release a series of data including a report on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to publish data on consumer inflation, existing home sales and business inventories.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.

Thursday, November 21

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health. Germany and France are also to release individual reports.

The U.S. is release data on producer price inflation, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to release data manufacturing activity from the Philly Fed.

Friday, November 22

The Ifo Institute is to publish a report on German business climate, a leading indicator of economic health.