Analytics News and Market Forecast

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made some technical forecast for EUR/JPY estimating the direction and the possible targets:
EUR/JPY: Targeting 137.35/08 next. "Price action was lukewarm at the best yesterday, but anyway showing that some kind of supply is trickling through and supports in the low-137s are exposed (but less so if 138.39 goes)."
As we see from the chart above - the price is on primary bullish condition with the secondary correction for breaking 137.50 key support level. SEB analytics are estimated the next targets as 137.35 and 137.08 which are really possible in case the price breaks 137.50 key support level.


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H4 price is located to be inside Ichimoku cloud for ranging market condition between Sinkou Span lines on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on H4 chart. The key support/resistance levels are the following:

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Barclays made a forecast for high impacted fundamental news events which will be on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The bank is telling that Federal Open Market Committee is already made a decision concerning a September Fed hike. Besides, Barclays is expecting the USD dollar to gain strength because "fears around China and weak commodity prices should keep pushing investors out of risky assets":
"We do not expect a material change and we anticipate that the document will echo the latest comments from different FOMC members. We think they will want to keep options open and will probably signal the data dependency of their decisions ahead. We believe that the FOMC has already made up their mind about their next move, absent any market disruptive events in the months ahead. Our base case remains a September Fed hike."


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Societe Generale and other int'l financial institutions were forecasting the price for EURUSD as 1.04/1.05 at year end. But for now - many banks are started to say about bullish or ranging bullish condition for this pair just because of the following: Greek debt crisis go away, Bund yields and PMI data expected on Friday. Thus, Societe Generale is forecasting for EURUSD to be in ranging bullish condition up to the end of this week and for next weeks for example:
"Endorsement of the Greek debt deal by Europe's parliaments won't make the Greek debt crisis go away, of course. The next stage, after payment of the money that is due to the ECB on Thursday, will be pressure for a confidence motion in the Greek Parliament and after that, probably, fresh elections."
"For the Euro area as a while, the focus will likely shift to the PMI data due Friday amid a sense that the region's growth rate is fading somewhat (again)."


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W1 price is located below 200 period SMA (200-SMA) and 100 period SMA (100-SMA) for the primary bearish market condition. The price is trying to break 48.19 support level to go to 45.17 as the next target:
Symmetric triangle pattern was broken for breakdown;
Chinkou Span line crossed the price from above to below for good breakdown possibility in the near future;
"A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracementat 51.34 exposes the 23.6% level at 53.27."
"Alternatively, a move below the 48.22-54 area (76.4% Fib expansion, August 10 low) opens the door for a test of the 45.11-17 zone (100% expansion, January 13 low)."


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EUR/USD: intra-day bullish; daily bullish reversal. The pair was fully reversed to the bullish market condition in intra-day basis: the price is located around 1.1188 resistance level for trying to break symmetric pattern from below to above for the bullish trend to be continuing. Bearish 'reversal' key support level is 1.1016 located near 100-SMA/200-SMA values…

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W1 price is on primary bearish with secondary ranging: price was stopped by 1.3213 key resistance level.
The price was formed ascending triangle pattern with 1.3213 resistance to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing.
Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator for the primary bullish market condition.
Chinkou Span line is located to be above the price indicating the bullish trend to be continuing.
Nearest support level is 1.2679.


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EUR/CAD: bullish breakout. We expect this pair to be veresed to the bullish trend by breaking the last border of Ichimoku cloud to come to the bullish area of the chart. Yes, it may be good breakout. Key 'reversal' resistance level is 1.4641. The price (daily price and weekly as well) will be reversed to the bullish by breaking this level from below to above. By the way, 1.3982 is key 'reversal' support level - the price will be in total bearish market condition by breaking this key support.
This will be a good possibility for the traders to make a good correct entry on the bullish breakout to get as many pips in profit as possible for example.
There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/CAD price movement for the coming week:
2015-08-25 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
2015-08-26 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]


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Citigroup was under criminal investigation into manipulation of the London interbank offered rate including forex rates. Citigroup paid $2.3bn in fines to US and UK authorities in the transatlantic investigation, $925m to the US Department of Justice, $342m to the Federal Reserve, $310m to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, $350m to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and $358m to the FCA, and about $394m to settle private class-action claims in the US.
And Four former Citigroup traders (Carly McWilliams, Perry Stimpson, David Madaras and Robert Hoodless) look set to be the first of the dozens of people fired over the forex-rigging scandal to challenge their dismissals in court. They have filed unfair dismissal claims at the East London Employment Tribunal.


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W1 price is located below 200 period SMA (200-SMA) and 100 period SMA (100-SMA) for the primary bearish with secondary ranging between Fibo support level at 1.0807 and Fibo resistance level at 1.1469:
the price is trading around 50.0% Fibo level at 1.1137 for the ranging condition;
data of RSI indicator is estinating the ranging bearish to be continuing;
"EUR/USD has treaded steadily lower since failing last week at the 61.8% retracement of the May – July range near 1.1215";
"a Gann angle line from the March low comes into play around 1.1000 and this looks to an important downside pivot for EUR/USD";


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