Analytics News and Market Forecast

Societe Generale made some review for Non-Farm Employment Change report (Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry) which will be on Friday:
"There’s a risk that we see edgy markets in the meantime...At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the case for raising rates to less unusually low levels does not rest on wage growth or inflation returning in earnest first. Rates are too low, and capital is misallocated as a result."
"More than the wage data however, we’d focus on the unemployment rate. We look for a solid 240k increase in non-farm payrolls, a 2.2% increase in hourly earnings and a drop to 5.2% from 5.3% in the unemployment rate."
"Anything that gets the front end of the curve higher in the US should be negative for EUR/USD. A meander back above 1.10 is possible in the early part of the week, but we’d like to sell against 1.11 and look for a break lower in August."


more...

Weekly price is on bearish breakdown for 51.58 support level breaking from above to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. Chinkou Span line is breaking the price for bearish breakdown to be continuing up to 45.17 as the next target in our case.
Chinkou Span line is indicating the breakdown to be continuing.
"Crude oil prices look poised to extend losses after a drop through the March low delivered the weakest levels in six months."
"A daily close below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 50.66 exposes the 76.4% level at 48.54."
If W1 price will break 51.58 support level on close W1 bar so the bearish breakdown will be continuing with secondary ranging.
If W1 price will break 45.17 support level on close W1 bar so the bearish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
If not so the price will be ranging between the levels.
Trend:


more...

Weekly price is on bullish market condition for ranging between 2042.11 support level and 2134.42 resistance level: If W1 price will break 2042.11 support level on close W1 bar so the secondary correction will be started up to yearly Central Pivot at 1963.05 as the next target.If W1 price will break 2134.42 resistance level on…

more...

Weekly price is on bullish market condition for ranging between 93.13 support level and 98.15 resistance level:
Chinkou Span line is located to be above the price with the secondary flat by direction.
The nearest resistance level is 98.15, and the next level is 100.39.
Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the secondary flat.
Pivot Points (yearly PP on weekly chart): the price is ranging between R1 Pivot at 95.28 and R2 Pivot at 99.31.


more...

Weekly price is on bullish market condition for ranging between 17396.4 support level and 18350.3 resistance level: If W1 price will break 17396.4 support level so the secondary correction will be started.If W1 price will break*17033.5 support level so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary…

more...

Deutsche Bank made a forecast for USDJPY for August-October 2015 and for 2016:
August-October 2015
"We believe the USD/JPY could jump to a ¥125-128 level over the next few months in reflection of robust US economic indicators."
2016
"We expect the USD/JPY to strengthen in August-October and edge upward to only around ¥130 throughout 2016."


more...

2015-08-04 23:45 GMT (or 01:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Employment Change]
past data is 0.6%
forecast data is 0.5%
actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)


more...

M5 price is located below SMA with period 200 (200-SMA) for the primary bearish market condition. SMA with the period 100 (100-SMA) is located near and above the price, and if the price will break 100-SMA from below to above so we may see the ranging market condition within the primary bearish. The price is breaking symmetric triangle pattern for direction ranging between the following levels:
1.0876 resistance located above 200-SMA on the bullish area of the chart, and
1.0847 support levels located on bearish area out of ranging zone.
The triangle pattern is broken many times from below to above and from above to below for totally ranging market condition to be going on for right now.
if price will break 1.0876 resistance level so we may see the reversal of the price to the bullish trend to be started on this timeframe.


more...

W1 price is located above 200 period SMA (200-SMA) and 100 period SMA (100-SMA) with the primary bullish for secondary ranging between Fibo resistance level at 125.85 and 23.6% Fibo support level at 119.93:
symmetric triangle pattern was broken by the price from below to above for the bullish trend to be continuing;
"USD/JPY continues to consolidate below the 124.70 78.6% retracement of the June/July range";
“A daily close above 124.70 is needed to re-instill upside mometum into the exchange rate”;
“A close back below 123.00 would turn us negative again USD/JPY”;


more...

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (BTMU) made their fundamental forecasts for EURUSD based on some fundamental factors:
"The euro weakened in July with the focus in the foreign exchange market shifting away from the uncertainty related to ‘Grexit’ and back to the monetary policy divergence between the euro-zone and the US. That should mean that the euro reverts to being the funding currency of choice."
"We suspect there’s a lot more potential selling to come."
"However, falling oil prices, if extended, will complicate the ECB’s achievement of its inflation target that could mean the ECB needs to extend QE while China weakness that keeps capital flowing out of China means reduced FX reserves that removes reverse recycling support for the euro as well."
"Despite the resolution to the crisis in Greece, at least for now, we maintain that the fundamentals point to renewed EUR weakness and a decline in EUR/USD toward parity."


more...