Analytics News and Market Forecast

Weekly price is on bearish market condition with below of 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA:

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"Gold would need to fall towards $US750 per ounce to bring prices in real terms back towards long-run historical averages," said Deutsche Bank.
Deutsche Bank ran gold price several models to determine 'fair value' of it, and this 'gold price model' calculated fair value at $US785 per ounce. But long-run average price in real terms using the Consumer Price Index - was $US770, and using Producer Price Index - was $US725:
"In real terms gold prices would have to fall to as low as $US750, suggesting that even at current levels gold can still not be considered cheap."

And this correction will happen shortly."We believe financial forces imply fresh lows in the gold price in the months ahead," said the bank. "We believe the adjustment in US long term real yields and the US dollar is still incomplete and interest rate and dollar markets will continue to move higher heading into next year and beyond."


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Gold could fall to $1,050 per ounce as Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie said in an interview with a television. He told that it would be a new 5-1/2-year low, although still above the psychologically key $1,000 level that many market participants say is on the horizon.

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Weekly price is on bearish market condition with below of 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA with the secondary ranging:

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EURUSD: rejection from the 55-day ma.
'The up and down move on Friday became the third consecutive rejection from the 55d ma band (since the return below it a month ago). The behavior is showing that bearish forces are at play and increasingly so given the return to a negative slope. We are thus looking for additional selling.'
USDJPY: new attempt to be above the key level.
'Given the violation of the B-wave high (and a three wave setback from Thursday’s peak) there’s a high probability of a soon more successful break higher (targeting a new trend high). For today we see 124.37 as the trigger point for the next step higher.'
AUDUSD: Signs for sellers.


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H4 price is on bearish for ranging on the border with Ichimoku cloud to be around Sinkou Span B line and between the following support/resistance levels:
1.1128 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud and Sinkou Span A line which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish on the chart;
1.0892 support level which is located below Ichimoku cloud on the primary bearish area of the chart.
Chinkou Span line is below the price for the ranging condition.
Resistance


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W1 price is located above 200 period SMA (200-SMA) and 100 period SMA (100-SMA) with the primary bullish for secondary ranging between Fibo resistance level at 125.85 and 23.6% Fibo support level at 119.93:

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W1 price is located to be below yearly Central Pivot for the primary bearish with the secondary ranging between pivot level at 142.83 and S2 Pivot at 127.21:
The price is on bearish ranging between pivot level at 142.83 and S2 Pivot at 127.21;
The price is located on S1 Pivot at 135.90 for crossing this level many times from above to below and to below to above for totally ranging condition;
If weekly price will break pivot level at 142.83 so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the bullish condition, otherwise the price will be on bearish ranging within yearly Central Pivot and yearly S2;
Instrument


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US Dollar - "This week, we will come across two particular indicators in a busy docketthat are important for shaping rate expectations. Monday’s PCE deflator is the Fed’s favored inflation measure. Friday’s July labor report will generate headlines with its NFP print, but the policy speculation will center on the wages component – the wellspring…

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USD: Bullish
"We expect USD strength to be focused against EM and commodity currencies."
EUR: Bearish
"Many investors have hedged equity positions in Europe with short EUR. This suggests that in an environment where commodity currencies and EM may sell off, risk generally could take a hit, adding some support to EUR in the near term. Over the medium to longer term, however, we retain our bearish view on EUR."
JPY: Neutral


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