Analytics News and Market Forecast

Iran and six major powers have reached a historic nuclear agreement, Reuters reported citing an Iranian diplomat. The news sent oil prices lower.


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Morgan Stanley made some fundamental/technical outlook for this week related to USD, EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD. It is about some fundamental news events coming and the strategies to be used for trading.
"USD: Bullish.
In an environment of fading risk appetite and high uncertainty due to China and Greece, we believe USD will be a relative outperformer. Oil prices are also on a downward trend, which could boost USD as well. The market has pushed back the timing of the first Fed hike significantly, creating room for upside moves if US data does surprise on the strong side. We will watch the upcoming retail sales and CPI prints.
EUR: Bearish.


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On Tuesday the European currency and stocks pulled back from Greece-inspired gains.


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H4 price is on bearish market condition with ranging between Sinkou Span A line (which is the border between primary bullish and the primary bearish on the chart) and 1.0972 support level. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price from above to below for good possible breakdown in the near future. If the price breaks 1.0972 support so we may see the bearish breakdown, if the price breaks 1.1084 so it will be the bullish market condition, if not so it will be totally ranging (the price will be inside Ichimoku cloud).
Chinkou Span line is crossing the price from above to below for good breakdown.
The price is located below Ichimoku cloud/kumo which is indicating the primary bearish market condition.
The nearest support level for H4 price is 1.0972.
The nearest resistance levels are the value of Sinkou Span A line and 1.1084 as the next level.


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W1 price is located below 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition: the price broke 23.6% Fibo level at 1167.08 with the next targets as Fibo level at 1147.11 and November last year low at 1131.75.
weekly price is crossing triangle pattern from above to below for possible bearish breakdown;
200 SMA and 100 SMA are showing the primary bearish without any ranging possibility;
RSI indicator is estimating the downtrend to be continuing.
If the price will break Fibo support level at 1147.11 so the bearish market condition will be continuing up to 1131.75 level.


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The decision from the company is expected to encourage the new users as it will help them do easy and fast recharge of their accounts. With the addition of the new payment option, ChangeTip will also get new customers.
Victoria van Eyk, the ChangeTip head of community informs that "users could previously use credit cards to make Bitcoin purchases through Coinbase, the company has added additional payment options". According to her the addition of a direct credit card purchasing option will remove added friction from the wallet top-up process. She was quoted saying that the idea is to make buying Bitcoin really easy, so the company decided to create an option where users can do it right on the website. The company according to her wants to provide the smoothest end-to-end experience. Interestingly, credit card users are restricted on how much Bitcoin they can purchase with the service.


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Technical Strategy team at Barclays Capital is continuing to make forecasting based on technical analysis. For now - we are having some signals for AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD.
AUDUSD: 'We are bearish and would use any upticks as opportunity to sell against resistance in the 0.7600 area. Our downside targets are towards support near 0.7335 and then the 0.7100 area.'
NZDUSD: 'Resistance in the 0.6820 area (21-dma) is expected to provide selling interest and helps keep us bearish in the short term. A move below 0.6620 would confirm downside towards our targets near the 0.6560 multi-month range lows.'


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On Tuesday the greenback was lower against its rivals, as appetite for riskier assets increased.


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Some banks are trying to predict the values for EUR/USD and for other pairs at year-end providing their technical analysis using support/resistance and 200 SMA indicator.
For example, Barclays estimated the EUR/USD to be 1.04, but Goldman Sachs evaluated that EUR/USD will fall 'a lot further':
"We see our results as consistent with our view that low inflation in the Euro zone is partly structural, which supports our view that ECB QE will last at least through September next year, which in turn supports our EUR/$ downside view."
"GS sees EUR/USD trading at 1.02, 1.00, and 0.95 in 3, 6, and 12-month respectively."
Thus, the bearish trend will be continuing: it may be without secondary ranging, or it may be with ranging, but it will be the primary bearish market condition anyway because of the following:


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RBS is thinking that EURUSD will be in more ranging condition for the next few weeks:
"The last minute agreement with Greece ought, in theory, play EUR/USD negative by allowing negative front-end rate spreads to be a bigger FX driver again. Also EUR negative, we believe, is the renewed fall in oil. For two to three months, markets have romanced the Euro area ‘reflation’ trade."
"Conclusion: EUR/USD goes lower multi-month but in a choppy range over the next few weeks," RBS concludes.
If we look at Ichimoku chart D1 timeframe so we can see the following:
the price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for ranging market condition;


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