Analytics News and Market Forecast

Goldman Sachs made Elliot Wave technical analysis on the daily EUR/USD and those are the following comments (below the chart):
"Has finally sustained a break above its 55-dma and the July '14 downtrend".
"Both of these levels have been very relevant to recent price action. The 55-dma in particular held the entire decline from the May '13 high to early-Apr. '15. It should now act as important support at 1.1095."
"The next big pivot to focus on is 1.1168; an ABC from the Jul. 20 th low. A close above will open potential for a 1.618 extension target to 1.1366. This also happens to be close to the previous two highs from May/June (1.1438-68) and a 0.618 extension from March (1.1432)."
"Overall, seems the next two big levels are 1.1168 and then 1.1366-1.1468."


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Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition with secondary ranging between the following s/r lines: Chinkou Span line is below the price for the ranging condition to be continuing.

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W1 price is located above 200 period SMA (200-SMA) and above 100 period SMA (100-SMA) for the primary bullish market condition with secondary ranging between 23.6% Fibo support level at 119.93 and Fibo resistance level at 125.85:

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H1 price is located between 100 hour SMA and 200 hour SMA: the price is trying to break 200-SMA from above to below for bearish market condition. The price is ranging within consolidating intermediate support/resistance levels which as 1.5595/1.5579 for the 1.5626/1.5541 key s/r as the next targets:

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US Dollar - "Aside from data and the long weight for a return to active sentiment fluctuations, there is another motivator that Dollar traders should keep tabs on as it is unusual active: reserve interest. The US currency accounts for 64 percent of total world reserves, and that appeal produces a passive bid. Yet, that…

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Barclays Capital is continuing to make a forecasting and abalysis for major pairs and for now - concerning weaker CNY with USDCNY pairs. As we see - the forecasts of Barclays Capital (as well as any other int'l institutions) are more related to fundamental factors than technical ones, and that is why it may be interesting for the traders for example.
"In summary, we read the recent announcements as a signal that more CNY depreciation is ahead, and that China’s slowdown is more severe than priced. We expect every major central bank to react in different ways, with implications for EURUSD, and USDJPY."


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Morgan Stanley is continuing to make a weekly forecast for the currency pairs making on technical analsysi, fundamental analysis and for some Morgan Stanley's expectation about what they want for us to do for example sorry.
As we see - the expectation for EUR is bearish and for AUD is bearish too (USD is for bullish condition).
USD: "We believe USD strength will be focused against EM and commodity currencies going forwards, with AxJ particularly underperforming. This is largely a result of the CNY move, but also reflects growth differentials and structurally lower commodity prices. However, we would expect the path against other G10 currencies to be driven more by data into September, as the market watches the Fed closely."


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BNP Paribas are forecasting the strong USD but with the secondary ranging market condition - just because of China news on Fed expectations:
"The underlying effective Fed funds rate has also been drifting higher over the past two weeks, reaching 15bp and suggesting some of the move in rates market pricing could reflect expectations for a move within the target range rather than a hike in the target."
"The minutes to the Fed’s July meeting on Wednesday will be closely watched for more insight into Committee thinking on the timing of hikes, while a speech from San Francisco Fed President John Williams on Thursday from a conference in Indonesia may give some insight into how Fed thinking has been affected by CNY developments."
"We remain patiently bullish on the USD through what we expect to be a choppy second half of August."


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Societe Generale is suggesting to be short with CAD and NZD. Short with CAD and NZD means the following:
long USDCAD;
long AUDNZD;
long GBPNZD;
short NZDUSD;


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Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made technical forecast for Brent Crude Oil the direction and the possible targets:
Brent Crude: Bullish "Doji", but will it bite? "The downtrend is relentless and all indicators are pointing south still. The only speck of light is a potentially near-term bullish "Doji" added yesterday. The problem is that those have been seen more than once on the way down but it's not more than a 50/50-chance for them to have any impact. For today we urge to watch both 48.35 & 49.44 for clues. A break lower would target a trendline at 46.90."
The bank is suggesting to look at intermediate support levels such as 48.35 and 49.44 with the next key target as 46.90. As we see from the charts - the price is on bullish condition for breaking few intermediate support levels: 48.35, 48.20 and 48.19. Those levels are not strong enough so 46.90 key target is very possible in this situation.


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