Analytics News and Market Forecast

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) fixed yuan at 6.3306 against against the dollar on Wednesday which is 1.6 percent weaker than on the level for the previous day. PBoC was aiming for a devaluation of around 2 percent total. The People's Bank of China told that that there is no any basis for continued yuan depreciation.
Some analytics mentioned "unnecessary political resistance" to the process of the yuan inclusion into the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, for example:
Goldman Sachs was talking about the following: "While more FX flexibility is likely helpful [for SDR inclusion], a sharp, government-engineered currency weakness against the dollar will likely create unnecessary political resistance to the process."


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UBS AG is a Swiss global financial company making currency forecasts and some prediction for EUR/USD and some other pairs. They are often publishing some trade ideas and reviews concerning technicals and fundamentals.
For example, this is their well-known prediction for USDCNY immediate after first CNY devaluation: "We now expect USDCNY trading at about 6.5 by end 2015E instead of 6.3 as previously envisaged, and 6.6 at end 2016E."
So, please find below very short ideas from UBS concerning EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD. Those idea can be valid for tomorrow and for coming week as well:
EUR/USD: "remains in the 1.0800-1.1200 range, though it has traded bid since the yuan devaluation. Stay flexible and trade the intraday moves."
USDJPY: "With the market calming down in China, we think USDJPY is a buy on dips close to 124, with a stop below 123.50."


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Weekly price is on bearish market condition for ranging between 48.19 intermediate support and 51.58 intermediate resistance levels. The key s/r levels are the following: 45.17 key support located far below Ichimoku cloud inside the primary bearish area, and 65.40 key resistance level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on the chart.
Chinkou Span line broke the price from above to below for the price breakdown to be continuing in the near future.
'Reversal' Sinkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish on the chart) is located far above the price which makes bullish reversal to be impossible in the future.
The price is ranging between 48.19/51.58 intermediate levels.
Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.


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M5 price is located between SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or breakdown of the key reversal support/resistance levels: 1.1161 and 1.1137. Intermediate s/r levels for the price on the way to reversal ones are the following: 1.1139/1.1156.

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This trading week was ended with market rally: the price was moved on local uptrend within the primary bearish and stopped by 1125.73 resistance level. For now the price is ranging between 1125.73 resistance and 1077.20 support.
D1 price is on primary bearish with market rally started in the beginning of this week:
Chinkou Span line is located below the price indicating the ranging market condition by direction.
'reversal' Sinkou Span line is located far above the price which makes the bullish reversal to be unlikely for the coming week.
If price breaks 1125.75 resistance on close daily bar from below to above so the market rally as the local uptrend will be continuing; if the price breaks 1077.20 support from above to below so the primary bearish breakdown will be started.


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Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB) made some intra-day analysis for few pairs whch may be used for the next week for example. Those pairs are the following:
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD. This is very short technical analysis for good s/r levels and for the direction to be followed:
EUR/USD: "The failed move below 1.1126 (and the created downside spike) keeps the short term wave pattern unclear. As long as 1.1190 remains unbroken there’s still a possibility that an upward correction ended the other day but if making way above the resistance new highs should be penciled in."
USD/JPY: "With the pair still below the mid body resistance downside risks are increasing. If also today manages to stay below 124.68 then downside risks will be even further enhanced going into next week. A move below 124.07 will likely lead to a loss of the 123.79 key support."


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Bank of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citi, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorgan, RBS and UBS agreed to pay more than $2bn in this settlement a law firm involved in the process said.
By the way, there is no indication how the sum would be divided between the banks as the agreement must still be approved by US District Judge Lorna Schofield. Anyway, the sources reported that Barclays would pay $375m, HSBC $285m, BNP Paribas nearly $100m and Goldman Sachs about $130m.
"In addition to the billions of dollars in compensation, these settling banks have agreed to cooperate with investors in their continuing litigation," legal firm Hausfeld said in a statement published after a hearing in New York.
"While the recoveries here are tremendous, they are just the beginning," said Hausfeld chairman Michael Hausfeld.


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Facebook announced breaking news app by launching auto-play video ads format to third-party applications in its mobile ad network. This application will help to Facebook to attract more users to their network: users will only be able to send out links from websites they control.
This publication respond with mobile notifications that will immediately be sent to users, and Facebook commented about the possibility of such an application so we will be able to find out more soon.
Anyway Facebook has not released any official statement regarding to the app. The initial version of the app it seems takes into consideration the choice of users regarding the publications or topics they want to receive notifications from.


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Bank of America Merrill Lynch is dispalling the doubts about the ability of the USD to rally further and about the EURUSD to resume the bearish market condition. Strong USD skeptics are providing some arguments that USD can not be more stronger than now:
The Fed do not like stronger USD for rate hike.
EU data was improved because of ECB QE.
Long-term movement for EURUSD pair is estimated to be 1.25 anyway soon or later.
Yes, positive Eurozone data surprises, and negative US data surprises, but skeptics are missing 2 additional main arguments:


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Nomura Holdings, Inc. (Japanese financial holding company) made some analysis and created some interesting conclusion: China can control the forex market and to move it where it wants.
"We have updated our data-based on FX liabilities to provide some objective metrics (reserves vs external FX liabilities). The bottom line is that China has its total external FX liabilities covered three times (3 X) by reserves, a higher ratio than any other so-called EM country we follow."
"China seems to have the resources to drive the FX market where it wants for quite some time. The question is where the authorities wants it," Nomura argues."


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