Analytics News and Market Forecast

Credit Agricole estimated G10 currency performance concerning post CNY devaluation movement, and they found that EUR is the best performer:
"It appears that the latest development decreased expectations of the Fed considering higher rates as soon as in September. However, it appears premature to make such assumptions, especially as US inflation expectations have been well supported on the back of firm domestic activity."
"The successful completion of the Greek bailout negotiations seems to have helped it outperform the likes of USD, JPY, GBP and especially CHF."
"The EUR-resilience went hand in hand with steep losses in the Eurozone stock markets. In turn this may suggest that (foreign) investors cutting their longs in the EZ asset markets also cut their EUR-shorts on the hedge."


more...

German banking regulators worried about attempts of foreign-exchange manipulation at large domestic banks and expects investigation by next year.
Raimund Roeseler, the head of bank regulation at BaFin: "We haven't concluded our investigation so I can't predict."
Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG fired individual traders attempted to manipulate rates. The banks are cooperating with authorities.
By the way, Deutsche Bank is still waiting BaFin's final verdict over Libor but Mr. Roeseler declined to comment on whether his authority will push for further consequences. Mr. Roeseler rejected the idea of any witch hunt telling that his authority "doesn't accuse Deutsche Bank of witchcraft."


more...

W1 price is located below 200-SMA and 100-SMA with bearish for ranging between Fibo resistance level at 1.1459 and Fibo support level at 1.0807:
The price is ranging between ranging between 1.1459 and 1.0807 levels.
descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed from above to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
"USD strength was short-lived in the case of EUR/USD, however, as the pair made back all its PBoC inspired losses by the beginning of European trading (purportedly on the back of a large unwind of short EUR/CNH positions). The loss of downside momentum in EUR/USD over the past few days in the face of some fairly positive USD news clearly raises the risk for a deeper upside correction in the pair."


more...

FOMC member Bill Dudley told his review about the policy and CNY impact speaking to the Rochester Business Alliance, and BNP Paribas made some expectations and review based on his speechfor example:
"We suspect he will stop well short of signalling support for September lift-off, which should still leave the USD vulnerable vs. core low-yielding currencies."
"We reiterate our call for December lift-off, but USD strength is likely to be muted in the near term."
"The Fed funds futures contract is down about 3bp in the very front-end, and the implied yield on the October contract has retraced last week’s gains. We would highlight that today’s additional CNY depreciation may further reduce US yields."


more...

Gold dropped below key support level at $1150 and for now we are looking at the next support target near $980. Historical support level for gold is $1180 which was broken as well and the price to continue falling towards the next support level at $980.






more...

W1 price is located above 200-SMA and 100-SMA for the primary bullish with secondary ranging between Fibo resistance level at 125.85 and 23.6% Fibo support level at 119.93:
The price is ranging between ranging Fibo resistance level at 125.85 and 23.6% Fibo support level at 119.93.
The price is trying to break ascending triangle pattern with 125.85 support for the bullish trend to be continuing.
If price will break Fibo resistance level at 125.85 on close weekly bar so the primary bullish will be continuing, otherwise the price will be ranging within the familiar levels.
"A daily close above 125.20 is needed to set off the next leg higher in the exchange rate."


more...

Markets around the world fell with stocks, the dollar and market currencies after yuan devaluation:
Germany's 2-year yield fell to a new record low.
Industrial commodities such as oil and copper fell.
U.S. interest rate hike next month dimmed: the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next month faded from about 60 percent to about 40 percent.
U.S stock futures fell.


more...

Daily price is on totally ranging market condition with between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area of the chart. On the price action situation: On Ichimoku chart situation: If D1 price will break 95.45 support level on close W1 bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary…

more...

W1 price is located below 200-SMA and 100-SMA for the primary bearish with secondary ranging between 23.6% Fibo resistance level at 0.6769 and Fibo support level at 0.6466: If the price will break Fibo support level at 0.6466 on close weekly bar so the bearish trend will be continuing with good possible breakdown of the…

more...

Retail Sales rose 0.6% in July and were revised higher for June and May. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services rose 0.4 percent in July as reported by the Commerce Department.
Good Retail Sales data is positive factor for the US economy, and as we see - the EUR/USD price was moved to be down by 36 pips for US dollar to become stronger by this news event (as we know if actual is more than expected one so this is good for US dollar - 0.6% actual vs 0.5% expected in our case). But financial markets have already shifted their interest rate hike expectations to December because of China's devaluation. Anyway, the government will publish GDP estimate later this month so many economists expect for the dollar to be as stronger as 1.04/105 at year-end for example.


more...