Analytics News and Market Forecast

Goldman Sachs updated forecasts for China GDP over the next three years because of pessimism over the health of the world's second largest economy: China GDP was marked to be down 2016, 2017 and 2018 projections to 6.4 percent, 6.1 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively from 6.7 percent, 6.5 percent and 6.2 percent, previously. Chinese government is targeting growth of "around 7 percent" this year.
Longer-term growth forecasts are based on three factors - labor, capital and productivity.



more...

EUR/USD: 'dancing' above Ichimoku cloud. This pair is ranging for few days to be above Ichimoku cloud: the bullish trend was started in the beginning of the last week, and the price was stopped by 1.1713 resistance level to start to be ranging within this resistance and Sinkou Span B which is Ichimoku cloud border line. So, seems - if the price breaks this 1.1713 so the bullish trend will be continuing. On the other hand, there is 1.1155 key support level which is located near Sinkou Span line on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on daily chart so, if the price breaks this support from above to below - we may see the bearish reversal to be started with the secondary ranging condition: the price will be inside Ichimoku cloud. There is next well-known bearish target as 1.0807 support located far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart so, if the price breaks this 1.0807 level so we may see good breakdown movement.


more...

W1 price is on bullish market condition to be ranging between the following key levels:
125.85 key resistance level located for the bullish trend to be continuing if broken,
116.13 key support level located inside Ichimoku cloud below 'reversal' Sinkou Span A line for bearish ranging condition if the level is broken.
Chinkou Span line is crossing the price from above to below for good breakdown possibilities in September.
If W1 price will break 116.13 support level so we may see the primary bearish market condition with secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud with 'reversal' Sinkou Span A line crossed.


more...

W1 price is on bearish ranging market condition: the price is moving within the following support/resistance levels:
1.5929 key resistance level located on the bullish area of the chart,
1.5329 key support level located in the bearish area of the chart.
Chinkou Span line is near the price to be ready to cross it in any direction to break the levels.
If W1 price will break 1.5329 support level on close W1 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing


more...

D1 price is on primary bullish market condition: the price crossed 200-day SMA from below to above and located in primary bullish area of the chart. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing.
The price is ranging between 0.7150 key bearish support level and 0.7421 key bullish resistance level.
Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing.
"Looking ahead, near-term resistance comes in at 0.7432, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 0.7482-90 area, marked by the June 5 high and the 50% level."
"The long-term EURGBP trend has favored weakness since prices topped in December 2008. With that in mind, any near-term gains appear corrective and our preference is to stand aside while those moves play out, waiting for an actionable selling opportunity to emerge."


more...

W1 price is on bullish market condition with ranging between the following key levels: Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the ranging condition by direction. If W1 price will break 1077.19 support level - the primary bearish trend will be continuing.If W1 price will break 1174.90 resistance level so the local uptrend as…

more...

W1 price is located above 200 period SMA (200-SMA) and 100 period SMA (100-SMA) for the primary bullish ranging between Fibo support level at 116.13 and Fibo resistance level at 125.85:
38.2% Fibo support level at 119.83 is going to be crossed by the price from above to below for the 23.6% Fibo support at 118.43 as the next target;
RSI indicator is estimating the local downtrend as the secondary correction to be started on open W1 bar by value .
If the price will break Fibo support level at 116.13 so we may see the good possibility to the revesal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 125.85 from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.


more...

BNP Paribas made the forecast for NFP to be more than 220K on Friday: "Our economists expect an above-consensus 230K increase in jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 5.3%."
By the way, Deutsche Bank is expecting for NFP to be significantly below 220K expectation:
"To be clear, we do not believe that underlying momentum in the labor market has meaningfully deteriorated. As we have previously noted, August employment has historically tended to disappoint consensus expectations. The last four August payroll reports were all weaker than expected; they were on average 55k below consensus."
"The data are even more compelling if we go back further in time. Since 1988, when our sample begins, August nonfarm payrolls have disappointed the financial markets in 21 of the last 27 years, or 78% of the time. The average forecasting error has been -61k. The range of misses, though, has been large. The median forecast error has been -42k."


more...

2015-09-03 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
past data is -45.2B
forecast data is -43.2B
actual data is -41.9B according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)


more...

As we know - the Federal Reserve officials did not make any decision concerning when to start raising short-term interest rates so please find some quotes which may help to clue it up:
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer: "I will not and indeed cannot tell you what decision the Fed will reach by Sept. 17."
New York Fed President William Dudley: "At this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the September [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting seems less compelling to me than it did several weeks ago."
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard: "I’m willing to respect the volatility in markets and see how it shakes out here. But just sitting here today, I’m not seeing how this is going to change the forecast and therefore I think the contours of monetary policy are about the same today as they were a couple weeks ago."


more...