Analytics News and Market Forecast

W1 price is between 200 period SMA (200-SMA) and 100 period SMA (100-SMA) for the primary bullish with secondary ranging between 126.09 support level and Fibo resistance level at 141.05 - 200-SMA is located below the price and 100-SMA is above the price:

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United Overseas Bank made a forecast for EUR/USD for today expecting the ranging market condition between 1.1105 and 1.1205: Let's evaluate this forecast to estimate the levels for today and tomorrow.

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Daily price is on primary bullish for secondary correction: the price was stopped by 1.1086 support level located on the upper border of Ichimoku cloud with 1.0847 as the next bearish target located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. if the price breaks 1.1086 on close daily bar so we may…

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Morgan Stanley believes in bullish USD irrespective of commodity, China and some insinuations around Fed hike:
USD: USD Strong Against EM. Bullish.
"We believe that USD strength will continue to be focused against commodity and EM currencies. Volatility remains elevated and risks surrounding China could keep it high. Should China be resolved, this could lead to a temporary rally in EM FX, but it would not be long before the market started bringing forward the timing of the first Fed hike, ending any relief rally in EM FX. We remain generally bullish USD."
Let's evaluate the situation with dollar index concerning future possible direction of the trend: bearish or bullish in long-term situation?
Dollar Index: ranging within bullish levels. This pair is on primary bullish market condition with secondary ranging within 100.39 key resistance and 92.62 support level.


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Morgan Stanley believes in bearish GBP related to USD, the question now is the following: where to sell?

GBP: Waiting for Opportunities to Sell. Bearish.
"We maintain our bearish GBP view, but are cautious that current levels may not be the most attractive to enter short positions. Markets have pushed the timing of the first hike in the UK back to August 2016, well beyond our economists’ expectation of a February hike. However, risk appetite remains weak and concerns in China are high. GBP tends to underperform in periods of heightened volatility, and this could continue."
Let's evaluate the situation with GBP/USD concerning future possible direction in long-term situation.


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Morgan Stanley believes in neutral JPY related to USD that means the bullish trend to be continuing with secondary ranging market condition:
JPY: Watch Wages. Neutral.
"More global asset market volatility would support the safe haven JPY, but we have to increasingly be aware of the risk of a BoJ response. After a 2Q contraction, the ramp into 3Q growth remains disappointing. Key will be cash earnings to test if the BoJ’s narrative of higher corporate profits filtering through to wages is gaining traction."
Let's evaluate the situation with USD/JPY concerning future possible direction of the trend: bearish or bullish in long-term situation?
USD/JPY: ranging bullish. This pair is on primary bullish market condition with secondary ranging within 125.79 key resistance and 116.13 key support level.


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Morgan Stanley estimated the EUR to be in neutral situation related to fundamental factors - the price will be ranging within the familiar levels:
EUR: The ECB Pushes Back. Neutral.
"The latest ECB press conference was dovish in tone, and the central bank increased the amount it can purchase of new issuances. In only making one adjustment to its current policy, the central bank kept the door open for further easing, contributing to the weakness seen in EUR. The central bank will need to maintain its dovish tone going forward to avoid the currency gaining ground once again off the back of its current account surplus and inverse relationship with risk."
Let's evaluate the situation with EUR/USD concerning future possible direction of the trend: bearish or bullish in long-term situation?
EUR/USD: ranging bearish. The pair is on primary bearish market condition with secondary ranging within 1.2069 key resistance and 1.0461 key support level.


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Morgan Stanley stated that AUD is in oversold related to USD but, anyway, they believe for the bearish trend to be continuing:

AUD: Domestic Story Deteriorating. Bearish.
"Despite the sell-off already seen in AUD, we believe there is scope for further weakness. It’s notable that AUD has sold off even as iron ore prices rose recently, suggesting that it is more than simply a reflection of external factors. Indeed, domestic data continue to deteriorate and the market is now pricing in nearly a full cut by the end of the year. Still, with our economists expecting a cut in November, we believe the market will move to our more dovish view, pressuring AUD."
Let's evaluate the situation with AUD/USD concerning future possible direction and the levels.


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US Dollar - "We are thus headed into another week of uncertainty for the US Dollar, S&P 500, and other key assets. It is worth noting that FX volatility expectations have fallen for the week ahead. Yet it’s likewise clear that a bumpy Sunday market open in China, Japan, and other key markets could change…

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Barclays made a forecast for this week concerning EUR/USD related to funbdamental factors such as the following:
"With the last employment report before the September meeting over, we think that markets will square positions ahead of the FOMC decision on September 17. With only a one-third chance of a lift-off at that meeting, we see limited downside risks to the USD in the short term and keep our bullish medium-term view, particularly vs. the EUR and EM currencies."
"Market to continue to contemplate further ECB QE: We continue to expect the ECB to announce before year-end an extension of the current QE programme beyond September 2016; this view was encouraged by sizeable downward revisions to the ECB's inflation forecast for 2016 and 2017 to 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively."
"As such, we continue to expect further material EUR depreciation and recommend remaining short EURUSD."
Let's evaluate this forecast concerning the technical point of view:


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