Analytics News and Market Forecast

EUR/USD: floating between 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for direction. This pair is ranging between 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for waiting for breakout/breakdown the levels. The price is ranging between 1.1243 resistance and 1.1086 support levels. The bullish target in case the price breaks 1.1243 levels are the following: 1.1331 and 1.1713. The bearish…

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GBP/USD price is ranging within the following s/r levels:
1.5929 resistance located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of weekly chart;
1.5164 support located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart.
As we see from the forecast made by Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ for this pair - the price will be inside Ichimoku cloud for the next half a year, and it means the totally ranging market condition: the price will be on inside Ichimnoku cloud on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish market condition.
So, no trend for GBP/USD till June 2016.


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Daily price is on bearish market condition with below of 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA:
the price is on bearish ranging between 54.27 resistance and 42.18 support levels;
price is breaking daily support at 47.39 for the bearish trend to be continuing.
"Crude oil appears poised for deeper losses after prices slipped below chart support above the $47/barrel figure. The Brent crude contract found resistance below the $55/barrel figure and turned downward having launched a sharp corrective recovery after plunging to a six-year low in late August."
"From here, a daily close below the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 45.58 opens the door for a test of the 61.8% level at 43.52."


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NZD/USD is on bearish market condition for ranging between 0.6751 key resistance level and 0.6084 key support level. Ichimoku cloud with the 'reversal' Sinkou Span A and Sinkou Span B lines are located far above the price which makes the bullish reversal of the price movement to be impossible for for 2015 and for the first half of 2016.
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ made a forecast for this pair up to June 2016. And according to this forecast - the price will start to break 0.6084 key support level in December this year for bearish breakdown with 0.60/0.59 as the next bearish target.
Pairs
Q3
Sep'15


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Goldman Sachs made some forecast concerning USD related to the FOMC meeting which will be held next week on Thursday:
"With an all-important FOMC meeting coming up next week, focus on the USD factor may increase once again. That has not typically been helpful for EM FX in recent years. But given our US Economics team’s view that the first hike is not likely to come until December and given the very sharp sell-off in EM FX in recent days, some stabilisation is certainly possible in the event of a dovish outcome."
"This would argue for some near-term caution in chasing the rapid moves of recent days. However, such a reprieve is likely to prove temporary, in our view, because the underlying external and internal adjustments are not complete, and we continue to see room for EM FX weakness versus the USD to extend in the medium term."
Just to remind about next week's FOMC metting:
2015-09-17 19:00 GMT (or 21:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate]


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Credit Agricole made an other forecast for EUR/USD: 1.12 by the end of Q3, 1.06 by the end of the year, and 1.04 by the end of Q1 of 2016. It means that old forecast (made few day ago) was updated for 1.12 target for this pair by the end of September. This correction was made because of fundamental factors changed: Credit Agricole is expecting dovish ECB (ECB Meetings) and hawkish Fed (FOMC).
Just to remind the general rules for fundamental news events concerning the speeches:
EUR: if dovish > expected = good for currency (for USD in our case).
USD: if hawkish > expected = good for currency (for USD in our case).
That means that Credit Agricole is expecting more bearish for EUR/USD in the medium term forecast:


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United Overseas Bank estimated the nearest bullish target for EUR/USd as 1.1475 with 1.1250/55 as the bearish reversal level. This situation is mostly related to intra-day trading: as we see from H4 chart - the EURUSD is on bullish trend with 1.1379 as the next target; and the reversal bearish target is 1.1253. It means…

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M5 price is located near SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and above SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or breakdown. The key support/resistance levels for this pair are the following: 1.5470 as the resistance and 1.5432 as support level.
If the price will break 1.5470 resistance level so we may see the bullish trend to be continuing.
If price will break 1.5432 support so the bearish trend will be started on this timeframe.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance


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Barclays told to investors to sell NZD/CAD this week provided fundamental and technical analysis for this pair.
Fundamental overview:
"Given the risks around this week’s September Fed meeting, we prefer to look for relative value away from the USD. We think short NZDCAD represents an attractive opportunity within the commodity complex. The New Zealand economy is significantly more exposed to downside Chinese growth risks with exports to China representing 5% of GDP, versus less than 2% of GDP for Canada. Long-term valuations also support this trade with our BEER model suggesting the CAD is 11% undervalued, while NZD is 7% overvalued."
Technical Overview:
"Our technical strategist remains bearish NZD and expects further underperformance versus the CAD. Recent support erosion endorsed the bearish June range break as well as our overall bearish view. We are looking for further downside towards initial targets in the 0.7900 and then lower towards the 0.7635, 2012 lows."


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