Analytics News and Market Forecast

Daily price is on bullish market condition for secondary ranging between 1.1713 key resistance level and 1.0847 support level. The price is located above Ichimoku cloud by crossing 1.1294 resistance level from below to above for the bullish trend to be continuing. Chinkou Span line is above the price indicating the bullish breakout in the near future.
D1 price - possible bullish breakout:
Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line for the secondary correction.
Absolute Strength indicator's data is estimating the ranging condition.
Chinkou Span line is located above the price for ranging by direction.


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Morgan Stanley made weekly forecast for USD in fundamental/technical mixed way expecting strong USD against the other currency for example:
"We remain bullish on USD, particularly against EM and commodity currencies. We expect no hikes at the upcoming Fed meeting. This could offer some temporary support to EM currencies, as markets are still pricing in roughly a 30% chance of a hike. However, we would expect any relief rally to be short-lived, as within a short time period, we would expect the market to focus on a December hike and weak EM growth."
From the technical point of view - USD is located above 100-SMA/200-SMA for ranging within 98.33 key resistance and 92.62 key support levels for crossing symmetric triangle pattern for the bullish trend to be continuing.
If the price breaks 98.33 resistance from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing in good breakout way.


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Morgan Stanley made weekly forecast for EUR in fundamental/technical mixed way expecting bearish EUR:
"We remain bearish on EUR over the medium term but see reason for some support in the near term. EURUSD continues to be inversely correlated with risk appetite. This suggests that as global volatility remains high and risk appetite weak then there is reason to see EUR supported. Draghi sounded very dovish at the recent ECB press conference so, should the voices from the central bank suggest more aggressive monetary action, then this would be a risk factor to our near-term view."
From the technical point of view - EUR/USD is located below 100-SMA/200-SMA for ranging within 1.1713 key resistance and 1.0807 key support levels for crossing symmetric triangle pattern for the trend to be continuing. Intermediate support level as the nearest bearish target is 1.0925, and the key bearish target is 1.0807. The situation with EUR/USD may be described on the following way:


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EURUSD - "The long-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD may come back into light should the Fed keep a 2015 liftoff on the table, and signs for an looming rate hike may put the exchange rate under pressure as interest rate expectations pickup."
GBPUSD - "With inflation due on Tuesday, expect markets to begin focusing on inflationary forces within the British economy. The expectation is for headline CPI to come in at .1% with Core CPI at 1.2%. Beats on either of these numbers could bring considerable strength into the Sterling, especially if the Federal Reserve backs off of the September rate hike, and begins to point at even more accommodative policy."
USDJPY - "We’ll see three other key data points that will be looked at as fuel for the BoJ to increase stimulus on a disappointing print and likely irrelevant on a beat. The data points are the Tertiary Industry Index, Industrial Production (Finalized), and Capacity Utilization with expectations of .3%, -0.6% MoM, and 0.7% respectively."


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Morgan Stanley made weekly forecast for JPY in fundamental/technical mixed way expecting neutral JPY:
"We believe that JPY is likely to outperform over the medium term but are more cautious in the near term for a few reasons. First, we believe that risk appetite could see some near-term support on the back of potential China fiscal stimulus and Fed hike delays. This would weigh on safe haven current account currencies such as JPY. Second, data out of Japan have been somewhat weaker, raising the risks of further easing in the country."
From the technical point of view - USD/JPY is located above 100-SMA/200-SMA for ranging within 125.85 key resistance and 115.85 key support levels. The price is near 38.2% Fibo support at 119.86 between 50.0% Fibo resistance at 121.02 and 23.6% Fibo support at 118.41


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H4 price is on bullish market condition for ranging within 1.1372 bullish resistance and 1.1086 bearish support levels.
Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging trend by direction.
The price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition.
Symmetric triangle pattern was crossed by the price from below to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.
Intermediate resistance level for the price on the way to the 1.1372 bullish target is 1.1337.


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Nomura is expecting the first Fed hike in December and explaining about it: the FOMC will not raise rates this week during September FOMC:
"Even without a decision to raise short-term interest rates, markets will have a lot to digest. We will get a new round of forecasts from FOMC participants. The economic forecasts for this year are likely to change in response to data that have already been released. We are not expecting big changes to the economic forecasts for 2016 and beyond. More importantly, we will also get another set of interest rate forecasts. We are expecting significant declines in the FOMC’s expected path of interest rates."


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Nomura made a forecast for EUR/USD stated about correction for this pair to 1.11 : By the way, Goldman Sachs noted that the setup in EUR/USD isn’t very clear: Anyway, as we see from daily chart - the price is located near above 200 day SMA with 1.1372 resistance level to be ready for two…

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Weekly price is on ranging market condition located inside Ichimoku cloud between the bearish and the bullish area of weekly chart within the following key s/r levels:
2132.59 key resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
1863.12 key support level located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart.
The price is located near Central YR1 Pivot at 1963.05 waiting for bearish/bullish direction of the trend:
if the price will break this Central YR1 Pivot at 1963.05 from above to below on close weekly bar so we may see the bearish market condition for S&P 500;


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W1 price is located above 200 period SMA (200-SMA) and 100 period SMA (100-SMA) for the primary bullish with secondary ranging between 38.2% Fibo support level at 1.5479 and Fibo resistance level at 1.6585:
23.6% Fibo support level at 1.5900 is going to be crossed by the price from above to below for the secondary correctional trend to be started;
the price is ranging between 38.2% Fibo support level at 1.5479 and Fibo resistance level at 1.6585;
triangle descending pattern was formed with 1.6585 for the price to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing.
If the price will break 38.2% Fibo support level at 1.5479 so the secondary correction may be started within the primary bullish market condition.


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