Analytics News and Market Forecast

Ichimoku analysis.
Weekly price is on bearish market condition for the breakdown which was started in the beginning of July this year: the price crossed 15.64 support level to 13.96 as the next bearish target. Chinkou Span line is indicating for the bearish breakdown to be continuing. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the secondary ranging to be started in the next future.
Pivot Points.
The price broke yearly Central Pivot together with descending triangle pattern from above to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing. Intermediate support level in this case is 13.96 with S1 YR1 Pivot at 12.66 as the next target. If the price breaks 13.96 from above to below on close weekly bar so the bearish breakdown to be continuing up to S1 YR1 Pivot at 12.66.
Instrument
S1 Pivot
Yearly PP
R1 Pivot
XAG/USD
12.66
17.41


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Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made an intra-day forecast for EUR/USD. As we see from the chart below - the price is located between 100 SMA and 200 SMA for ranging market condition waiting for direction. On daily base - the price is near above 200 day SMA for trying to cross it from above to below for the ranging bearish condition to be started in this case.
EUR/USD: Bears are happier below 1.1329. "A near-term bearish impulse may or may have not yet started. If holding from breaking back over 1.1329 and instead extending the drop below the near-term "Equality point" at 1.1240 we believe in the former. Current intraday stretches (shouldn't really become tested ahead of Fed) are located at 1.1200 & 1.1370."


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Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for 2016 to $45 from $57 while allowing “the possibility” of $20 oil. It was stated that the bearish trend will be continuing for crude oil. The price may be increased based on the following geopolitical news:
economic recovery;
a sharp drop in US shale oil production;
non-OPEC producers cooperating with OPEC nations to cut production.
Many analytics do not agree with $20 forecast. For example, Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki (the Founder and Chairman of FGE) explained the theory of oil prices where the price could be anywhere within the support/resistance range. And J. P. Morgan said foresaw for oil to be in ranging condition as well.


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Citigroup made a forecast for Fed hike for today in technical and fundamental ways:
"Citi’s baseline is for a 25bps hike, but there remains considerable scope for surprise, as well as hifting communication to play a role. Ultimately we think the decision boils down to how the FOMC sees market conditions, and whether the recent volatility could lead the FOMC to temporarily postpone hiking."
"In our view we place a 25% chance of a hike, and 75% for no hike. Still, the risk/reward favors a more hawkish outcome. We think the next most likely possibility would be for the committee to signal the October meeting as live, a hawkish outcome for the bond market."
From technical points of view
If September hike - Buy USD/CAD


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BNZ made a forecast for EUR/USD up to March 2017 estimating the bearish condition to be continuing in 2015, ranging in 2016 and bear market rally in 2017.
As we see from the weekly chart - the nearest support levels are 1.0924, 1.0807 and 1.0461. So, according to BNZ:
1.0807 level will be broken by December this year;
1.0461 level will be broken by march next year.
Pair


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H4 price is located above 100 period SMA (100-SMA) and above 200 period SMA (200-SMA) for the primary bullish market condition for the secondary ranging within the following key levels: 1. Intermediate levels.

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BNZ made a forecast for NZD/USD up to March 2017 estimating for this pair to be in 0.600 psy level by March 2016 up to September 2016.
As we see from the weekly chart - the nearest support level for this pair is 0.6102 so BNZ is planning for this level to be broken by March this year to 0.6000 psy level as the next bearish target. And this pair will be moved in bear market rally way since end of 2016 till March 2017 for example.
Pair
Q4
Dec'15


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W1 price is located below 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the primary bearish with secondary ranging between Fibo support level at 0.6084 and 38.2% Fibo resistance level at 0.6737:
The price is ranging between Fibo support at 0.6084 and 23.6% Fibo resistance at 0.6475;
Descending triangle pattern was formed for the price to be broken from above to below for the bearish trend to be continuing;
If weekly price will break 0.7552 support level so the primary bearish will be cintinuing, otherwise the price will be ranging within the familiar levels;
"The New Zealand Dollar continues to oscillate in a well-defined rangeabove the 0.62 figure against its US namesake. The dominant trend continues to look decidedly bearish, painting the current standstill as digestion preceding the resumption of downward momentum."


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W1 price is located below 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the primary bearish for secondary ranging between Fibo support level at 0.9148 and Fibo resistance level at 0.9746:
the price is ranging around 50.0% Fibo level to crosse it from below to above for the bear market rally to be started, or to cross it from above to below for the ranging bearish trend to be continuing;
there are two intermediate support levels for the price on the way to bearish breakdown: 0.9327 and 0.9148;
there are two key resistance levels for the price on the way to the primary bullish trend: Fibo resistance at 0.9746 located near 100-SMA below 200-SMA, and 1.0081 resistance located in the bullish area of the chart above 200-SMA.
The main and only scenario for this pair based on weekly price is the total ranging market condition within key levels. I do not foresee for this pair to take the direction for strong bearish or the bullish trend in the next few weeks for example.


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United Overseas Bank made a forecast for EUR/USD concerning the movement of this pair for today and the beginning of the next week:
"EUR/USD strong rally to a high of 1.1438/43 appears to be over-extended and further sustained up-move is unlikely."
"Retest of 1.1438/43 is possible but 1.1480 is expected to cap for a pull-back to 1.1340."
As we see from the chart above - the nearest resistance level for this pair is 1.1440 level located far above 200-SMA, and the key support level is Fibo level at 1.1213 located near 200-SMA on the reversal between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area of the chart. UOB is considering for the price to break 1.1440 resistance to be unlikely and they are expecting for the price to come back to 1.1340 level soon.


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