Analytics News and Market Forecast

JP Morgan publish the next technical analysis for EURUSD, and for now - about the key levels for the bullish trend to be continuing in intra-day and day trading:
"For the bulls to really gain more traction and in order to free the way for a much broader recovery towards 1.1699 and 1.1811 (int. 38.2 % on highest scales), it would take additional breaks above 1.1288 (int. 76.4 % on higher scale) and ultimately above 1.1383 (daily trend)."
"Particularly below 1.1288, the market remains in the danger zone."


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The price is on bullish market condition with the ranging which was started in the middle of June this year. The price was stopped by 195.86 resistance level with the ascending triangle pattern which should be broken by the price for the bullish trend to be continuing.

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W1 price is on primary bearish with secondary ranging market condition: the price is moved within 0.7249 resistance and 0.6935 support levels. The price is ranging for direction: it may be local uptrend as the secondary market rally within the bearish, or bearish breakdown.

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This trading week was ended with bullish ranging: the price was on primary bullish condition and it was stopped by 125.27 key resistance level, and for now - the price is ranging between 125.27 resistance and 123.78 support levels.
D1 price is on primary bullish with the secondary ranging which was started in the beginning of this week:
Chinkou Span line is located to be above the price for the primary bullish with the secondary correction estimated by the direction of the line.
'reversal' Sinkou Span line is located below the price and near 123.78 support level which makes the bearish reversal to be possible for the coming week.
If price breaks 125.27 resistance on close daily bar from below to above so the bullish condition will be continuing; if the price breaks 123.78 support from above to below so the secondary correction will be started with the good possibility to the reversal to the primary bearish market condition.


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GBP/CAD: bullish breakout. This pair is on bullish condition for ranging within consolidating levels: 2.0204 support and 2.0627 resistance. Both key levels are located far above Ichimoku cloud in the fully bullish area of the chart so we are having 3 simple scenarios for the price movement for the week:

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GBP/USD: reversed to bullish. This pair finally crossed Ichimoku cloud from below to above and came to the bullish area of the chart by two closed daily bars. The price was stopped by 1.5659 resistance level with 1.5689 as the next bullish target. The bearish key reversal target/level is 1.5423, and if the price crosses…

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EUR/USD: decisive week for direction. The price just reversed to the bullish trend by crossing Ichimoku cloud and all Sinkou Span lines. EUR/USD located above and near 'reversal' Sinkou Span A line so it may be possible for the price to be reversed to the ranging bearish anytime next week for example. The key resistance level is 1.1215, and if the price crosses this level from below to above - it means that the reversal to the bearish will be unlikely for the week. Key support level is 1.0807 and this level is located far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart.
This week will be decisive for the pair concerning the following: whether this pair will remain in this position in the primary bullish by breaking 1.1215 resistance level, or still go on to bearish area of the chart by breaking nearby Sinkou Span line which is one of the border of the Ichimoku cloud.
There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/USD price movement for the coming week:


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Daily price is located in exact 'reversal' Sinkou Span lines of Ichimoku indicator between the following s/r levels: Chinkou Span line is above the price indicating the ranging market condition by direction.

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BNP Paribas together with the other int'l financial groups are continuing to make some forecast and analysis concerning about the following: when USD will start to become more stronger this year. They found few reasons about why USD will become stronger this year: Fed rate hike will begin this year anyway, good US economic data
"While we do not expect this week’s China developments to ultimately prevent the Fed from hiking rates this year, the uncertainty generated by the moves does support our expectation that hikes will not begin until December."
"Data has also been too mixed this month to support September rate hike hopes. Yesterday’s upward revisions to June retail sales led our economists to push up their forecast for Q2 GDP to a 3.4% annualized rate, well up from the 2.3% first reported by the Commerce Department. However, the softer July reading suggests a bit less momentum for Q3."


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Goldman have reiterated a call for the Dollar to rise 20% in the next three years: "A further tactical consideration is that falling oil prices may be raising the odds of additional monetary stimulus in places battling deflation, with the Euro area and Japan front and centre. Dollar upside remains large, and it’s time to grab some."
Goldman Sachs is thinking that it is a good time for Dollar to be a long for the Dollar for now: "Much as last summer, it will be key to see if falling oil prices spill over into inflation expectations, where the fall so far has been relatively muted."
There are some more stimulus for long Dollar: "“In both Japan and the Euro area, the odds of additional stimulus may be rising, a further reason to be long Dollars,” say Goldman Sachs."
By the way, as we see from the chart - the next bullish target is 100.39 key resistance for Dollar Index Future, and this level can be reached soon within some weeks or so (irrespective of CNY depreciation for example)


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