Analytics News and Market Forecast

Fundamentals for USD/JPY: neutral. "We expect JPY to be a relative outperformer over the near term for two reasons. First, weakness in China and the latest selloff in EM FX is likely to weigh on risk appetite more broadly. JPY tends to outperform in periods of risk aversion. Second, we continue to expect no further BoJ easing, which should also make the JPY an outperformer as other central banks carry out easing policies."
Technicals for USD/JPY: ranging with bullish. The pair is on bullish market condition with ranging within the following key levels: 115.84 resistance and 125.85 support. 100-SMA and 200-SMA indicators are estimating the bullish condition to be continuing but this pair may be ranging within key levels up to the end of next month for example. Intermediate support/resistance levels are also too far from the market price: 1.1613 support and 124.50. Thus, this ranging market expectation will be good for scalping or martingale trading systems but it may be some 'gap in tra


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"We expect, in line with consensus, an increase of 200k in the headline number (190k for the private payroll), a steady unemployment rate of 5.1%, and a 2.4% y/y increase in wages. We see these figures as robust indicators of tighter labor market conditions and supportive of inflation in the months to come."

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US Dollar - "While it will be easier to keep tabs on the progress of monetary policy speculation, the greatest potential for Dollar movement resides with sentiment trends. The Dollar is a haven when risk aversion devolves into a need for liquidity. We have only seen a glimpse of that level of fear in the…

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W1 price is above 200 period SMA (200-SMA) and above 100 period SMA (100-SMA) for the bullish market condition:
the price is trying to break Fibo resistance level at 1.3417 from below to above for the bullish trend to be continuing;
ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken from below to above for the possible bullish breakout;
RSI indicator is estimating possible breakout or secondary correction.
If the price will break 23.6 Fibo support level at 1.3077 so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.


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EUR/USD: floating around 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for direction. This pair is ranging near 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for waiting for breakout/breakdown the levels. The price is ranging between 1.1460 resistance and 1.1086 support levels. The bullish target in case the price breaks 1.1460 level is the following: 1.1713. The bearish target is 1.0847.
If the price breaks 1.1460 resistance so we may see the bullish trend to be started with the next targets as 1.1713.
If the price breaks 1.1086 support so the 1.0847 bearish target may be the real one for tomorrow and next week for example.
Just to remind that we will have the following high impacted news events related to EUR/USD price movement:
2015-09-30 13:15 GMT (or 15:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]


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W1 price is on bearish market condition: the price was stopped near S2 Pivot level at 76.73 on the way to S3 Pivot at 72.07 as the nearest bearish target:
The price is on strong bearish condition for trying to break S2 Pivot level at 76.73 on close weekly bar for the bearish trend to be continuing;
descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken from above to below for goosd possible bearish breakdown;
if weekly price will break S2 Pivot level at 76.73 on close weekly bar so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing;
if weekly price will break S3 Pivot at 72.07 so we may see the breakdown of the price movement within the primary bearish condition.


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W1 price is on strong bearish market condition: the price is breaking S2 Pivot level at 81.56 on the way to S3 Pivot at 74.90 as the nearest bearish target:
The price is on strong bearish condition for trying to break S2 Pivot level at 81.56 on close weekly bar for the bearish trend to be continuing;
if weekly price will break S2 Pivot level at 81.56 on close weekly bar so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing;
if weekly price will break S3 Pivot at 74.90 so we may see the breakdown of the price movement within the primary bearish condition.
Instrument


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Credit Suisse made a fundamental forecast for the high impacted news events which will be on Friday: Non-Farm Employment Change:
"We project Friday’s payrolls to show +195k jobs in September (consensus), up from last month’s +173k, due to strong growth in the construction and service producing sectors. Unemployment is forecasted to remain at 5.1% in line with consensus, while average hourly earnings should increase 0.2% (consensus 0.2%), taking the year over year figure to 2.4%, its highest point since August 2009."
2015-10-02 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
past data is 173K
forecast data is 202K


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Weekly price is on bearish breakdown for crossing Ichimoku cloud border line namely Sinkou Span line: the price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the bearish ranging market condition between 17155 key support level and 19195 key resistance level.
Chinkou Span line is located to be below the price and indicating the bearish breakdown by direction.
'Reversal' Sinkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish on the chart) is near and above the price which makes bullish reversal to be very possible in the near future.
The nearest resistance level is 19195, and the next level is 20930.
Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bearish condition to be continuing.


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W1 price is above 200 period SMA (200-SMA) and above 100 period SMA (100-SMA) for bullish market condition with the secondary ranging between Fibo resistance level at 1.5560 and 38.2% Fibo support level at 1.4597:
the price is floating around 23.6% Fibo resistance at 1.4964 for trying to break it from below to above on close weekly bar for the bullish trend to be continuing;
RSI indicator is estimating the bullish condition by direction.
If the price will break 38.2% Fibo support level at 1.4597 so the secondary correction will be started with the good possibility for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.5560 from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.


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