Analytics News and Market Forecast

US Dollar - "Aside from the FOMC decision, the US docket has an array of indicators set for release. The top two listings are the 3Q GDP release due Thursday and PCE deflator on Friday. Growth for the world’s largest economy can equially dictate rate expectations and investor sentiment. The PCE is the central bank’s preferred inflation indicator. It’s impact will be dictated by how the Fed decision plays out. Outside its own docket, it will be important to further watch the listings of the United State’s largest counterparts. The BoJ rate decision, Eurozone inflation figures, UK GDP, Chinese plenum and RBNZ rate decision are high-profile event risks that can continue to work the indirect fundamental leverage for the Greenback."


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Nomura made a forecast for EUR/USD based on some technical conclusion for example:
"In coming weeks, risk sentiment and US data may be the most important drivers of the EUR/USD cross...If risk sentiment stays more constructive, such that capital outflows from the Eurozone can recover, we would not be surprised to see a move to 1.08 in coming weeks, even if Fed expectations remain fairly stable."
"A double-whammy of easy ECB, Fed lift-off in December and a re-test of 1.05 seems fairly unlikely, also because the speculative community has limited trading ammunition after a couple of rough months."


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UBS Group made a weekly technical forecast making the trading recommendations for the USD/JPY pair related for the trading.
USDJPY:
"We have seen some profit-taking ahead of the FOMC and BoJ meetings this week. Nothing is expected from the FOMC, but the BoJ could be a big event."
"The pair should stay supported heading into the meeting, so look to buy dips closer to below 120.50, with a stop below 120.00. There is good resistance between 121.70 and 122.00."
The price is trading to be above Ichimoku cloud for primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within Fibo resistance at 123.10 and 23.6% Fibo support level at 118.32. Fibo resistance at 123.10 is located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart, and 23.6% Fibo support level at 118.32 is located to be inside Ichimoku cloud in the ranging bearish area.


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UBS Group made a weekly technical forecast making the trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair related for the trading.
EURUSD:
"We are struggling to see value in shorts."
"Sell at 1.1060, adding at 1.1085, with a stop at 1.1110."
The price is trading to be below Ichimoku cloud for the crossing 23.6% Fibo support level at 1.1021 from above to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. The nearest bearish target is Fibo support level at 1.0811, and if the price crosses this target so we may see the good bearish breakdown up to 1.04/1.05.


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W1 price is located below 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the primary bearish with secondary ranging between Fibo resistance level at 0.7492 and Fibo support level at 0.6934:
The price is crossing 61.8% Fibo support level at 0.7148 from above to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
"The Euro corrected modestly higher after swiftly sinking to the lowest level in over two months against the British Pound. Prices reversed downward as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern."
"Near-term support is now at 0.7145, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 76.4% level at 0.7063."
"We sold EUR/GBP at 0.7325 and have since taken profit on half of the trade. The rest of the position continues to be in play to take advantage of further weakness ahead. The stop-loss has been adjusted downward to the breakeven level."


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XAU/USD: waiting for breakout with bullish reversal. The pair is ranging within 1191.48 resistance level and 1077.19 support level. The 'reversal' 1191.48 level is located near and below Ichimoku cloud and Sinkou Span line so if the price crosses this level from below to above - we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging (price will be inside Ichimoku cloud). Chinkou Span line is ready to break the price from below to above for good possible breakout so the bullish reversal for this pair is very likely in the near future for example.
Resistance
Support
1232.40
1098.68


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USD/JPY
This pair is on bullish market condition for ranging within 118.05 key support level and 125.85 key resistance level. The price is located above 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA floating around 121.63 resistance.
According to the forecast made by Westpac Banking Corporation, this 118.05 key support level will not be broken in 2015 and 2016 as well - we may see the secondary ranging up to June next year for this pair, and the bearish market condition will be continuing in the second half of 2016 only.
Pairs
Q4


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NZD/USD
The pair is on bearish market condition for ranging within 0.6084 key support level and 0.6896 key resistance level. RSI indicator is estimating for the bearish trend to be continuing with the next bearish target as 0.60.
According to the forecast made by Westpac Banking Corporation, this 0.6084 key support level will not be broken in 2015 and 2016 as well - we may see the secondary ranging up to December next year for this pair, and some secondary bear market rally will be started in the second half of 2016 only.
Pairs
Q4


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Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made intraday technical forecast for EUR/USD pair estimated new support level at 1.0896:
EUR/USD: "The rejection from the recently broken flag floor and the break below the support was exactly what was needed to trigger the next part of the decline. Selling will likely take short pause arriving at 1.0896 but probably not for long. The current wave three should stretch out for the 1.05-area before any more profound reaction likely to occur."
EUR/JPY: "Trying it below the key support zone. Yesterday’s attempt below the lower boundary of the key support zone, 132.24, was reversed before ending the day. Today we are however making a new attempt so let’s see whether that one will be more successful. Once we can confirm that we have left the support zone behind us focus should turn to the 126-area."


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XAG/USD: ranging on bullish reversal. This pair is on ranging market condition within 16.18 resistance level and 13.96 support level. The 'reversal' 16.18 level is located near and below Ichimoku cloud and Sinkou Span line so if the price crosses this level from below to above - we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging (price will be inside Ichimoku cloud). Chinkou Span line is started to break the price from below to above for good possible breakout so the bullish reversal for this pair is very likely in the near future for example.
Resistance
Support
16.18
14.26


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