Analytics News and Market Forecast

Last week overview
Many analytics are talking that the probability for Fed rate hike is increased because of Employment report last Friday. Besides, there were some other news events which were affected on this probability:
On Tuesday: hawkish talk from Atlanta Fed's Lockhart.
On Wednesday: ADP report indicated a weak jobs report on Friday; the ISM non-manufacturing report indicated a strong jobs report.
The fundamental data from last week are looking solid especially after the employment situation last Friday, and because of that the probability for Fed rate hike was increased.


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JP Morgan estimated the false breakout by bouncing back starting to range between very strong support/resistance levels. Market refused to make necessary breaks to established good stable trend, says JP Morgan.
"Market keeps on bouncing back and forth in a range between 1.1071 (daily triangle resistance) and 1.0772/44 (daily triangle support/int. 76.4 %), which needs to be broken to receive fresh directions."
"A break above 1.071 would on the other hand be needed to open the door for a minimum recovery to 1.1288."
"A break below the main T-zone at 1.0772/44 would re-open Pandora's Box in terms of resuming the long-term downtrend. In this case 1.0072 (76.4 % of the 2000-2008 rally) would only be a minimum target."
Thus, JP Morgan descovered 2 very strong s/r levels:


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Bank of America Merrill Lynch is continuing with their fundamental forecasts concerning US Dollars related to the other currency, and continuing with criticizing the Federal Open Market Committee concerning their actions for example:
"We argue that only a small part of the strong dollar rally since last year can be explained by approaching Fed hikes."
"The dollar has more room to strengthen when the Fed actually initiates hikes, in our view, especially given that the Fed policy will be diverging from that of most other global central banks with a September hike not fully priced into the OIS curve."
"In turn, further dollar appreciation might translate into further downward pressure on key commodity prices such as oil."
"Although our analysis supports the Fed’s view that the price of the dollar largely reflects the relative strength of the US economy, stronger dollar might prompt the Fed to communicate a slower pace of hikes if it sees a spillover into the data."


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Barclays evaluated the recent NFP data and made the conclusion that FOMC has already decided about what to tell during the next meeting. Barclays watched the job data and established the correlation between job market and FOMC decisions concerning the inyerest rate to be changed.
"We believe, in line with the FOMC’s rhetoric, that the expected path of the fed funds rate for the next couple of years is probably more important than the actual date of the lift-off. In that regard, wage developments will continue to be monitored by markets to assess the speed of the normalization cycle."
"We maintain high conviction in further EURUSD downside in the context of steadily improving US data and a likely September Fed rate hike that remains underpriced."


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H4 price is on ranging market condition for breaking Ichimoku cloud two times from yesterday. Price is located inside Ichimoku cloud with ranging between 1.1040 resistance and 1.0847 support levels.
Chinkou Span line is above the price indicating the ranging market condition with possible breakdown.
Price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for ranging market condition.
Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging by data.
Key support level is 1.0847 located far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart.


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USD: Bullish"We stick to our bullish USD view. Recent comments from Fed Governor Lockhart suggest that September is still very much in play, and as markets bring the timing of the first hike forward, this should support USD."

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Weekly price is on bullish market condition for ranging between 10649.5 support level and 12425.0 resistance level. The price is breaking 11802.5 resistance for the bullish condition to be continuing.

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Weekly price is on bearish market condition with below of 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA:
the price is crossing 48.38 support level for 45.17 as the next bearish target;
symmetric triangle pattern was broken by price from above to below for good possible breakdown of the price movement in the near future;
Nearest support levels are 48.38 and 45.17;
Nearest resistance levels are 65.40 and 72.99.


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Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB - Swedish financial group with headquarters in Stockholm/Sweden) is continuing intra-day forecast. For now - we are having some analysis for EUR/USD and USD/CNH:
EUR/USD
"The pair moved a tad higher (1.1042) than expected before turning around and falling back lower. A close at current levels (or lower) will create yet another 55d ma band rejection indicating that the sellers still are in control. A sustained break below 1.0926 will sharply up a bearish outlook calling for a swift continuation down to the recent low area."
USD/CNH


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Big rise in China market helps to Dow Jones Industrial Average to climb by 1.4%, for example - Shanghai composite index rose by 4.9% to 3,928.12.
Zhang Yunyi, general manager at Shanghai Hongyi Investment & Management, told that listed companies do not have enough strength to maintain and to rise this volatile market:
"The conditions aren’t there for a big increase. Shanghai index may move in a 3,500-4,300 range for the next “several months."
Even if Shanghai composite index will reach 4,300 so the companies will be suffering with losses because June high value is 5,166.35 for the compalies to start to sell.


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