Analytics News and Market Forecast

2014-12-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.2%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
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The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November, the same increase as in September and October. The indexes for shelter, medical care, airline fares, new vehicles, and tobacco were among the indexes that rose in November. In contrast, the indexes for recreation, apparel, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks all declined.

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EURUSD M5: 26 pips price movement by USD - Consumer Price Index (CPI) news event :

M5 price is located near and above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the ranging within the following key reversdal support/resistance levels:

• 1.0958 resistance level located above 100-SMA/200-SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
• 1.0923 support level located below 100-SMA/200-SMA in the primary bearish area.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging continion to be continuing.

• If the price will break 1.0958 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
• we may see the bullish trend to be started on this timeframe.
• If price will break 1.0923 support so we may see the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
1.0958	1.0931
N/A	1.0923

• Recommendation to go short: watch close M5 price to break 1.0923 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch close M5 price to break 1.0958 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging on reversal

SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : waiting to break the levels

Daily price is on bearish market condition with below of 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA:

• the price crossed 42.18 and 41.51 levels to below together with descending triangle pattern for the bearish trend to be continuing;
• next support levels to be broken are 37.31 and 36.29;
• nearest resistance levels are 42.18 and 41.51.

Resistance	Support
42.18	37.31
41.51	36.29

• if daily price breaks 42.18 resistance so we may see the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition;
• if daily price breaks 37.31 support level so the primary bearish trend will be continuing up to 36.29 level as the next bearish target;
• if not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

EUR/USD H4: ranging bearish breakdown. The price broke Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart to be traded inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition. There are the following key reversal support/resistance levels for intra-day price:

• 1.1059 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart;
• 1.0795 support level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend of H4 chart; and
• 1.0580 support located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.

• if the price breaks 1.1059 resistance so we may see the reversal of intra-day price from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition;
• if the price breaks 1.0795 support so the bearish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging;
• if the price breaks 1.0580 support level so we may see good possible bearish breakdown;
• if not so the price will be moved within the channel.

Resistance	Support
1.1010	1.0795
1.1059	1.0580

GBP/USD H4: bearish breakdown. The price is on bearish breakdown located below Ichimoku cloud and below broke Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. There are the following key reversal support/resistance levels for intra-day price:

• 1.5239 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart;
• 1.4894 support located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing with the secondary ranging condition.

• if the price breaks 1.5239 resistance so we may see the reversal of intra-day price from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition;
• if the price breaks 1.4894 support level so the bearish breakdown will be continuing;
• if not so the price will be moved within the channel.

Resistance	Support
1.5098	1.4921
1.5239	1.4894

GBP/USD: bearish breakdown. The pair is on bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart. The price is ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

• 1.5239 resistance level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart, and
• 1.4864 support level located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

There are 3 simple scenarios for the price movement for the week:

• bearish breakdown in case the price breaks 1.4864 support on close daily bar with 1.5335 level as the nearest target,
• bullish reversal to be started in case the price breaks 1.5239 resistance from below to above,
• or the ranging within the levels.

Chinkou Span line is located below the price indicating the ranging bearish market condition by direction.

Resistance	Support
1.5239	1.4864
1.5335	N/A

2015-12-18 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

• past data is 0.1%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - CPI]= Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.4% in the 12 months to November, after increasing 1.0% in October.
Gasoline prices continued to moderate the year-over-year rise in the CPI in November, but to a lesser extent than in October. In November, the gasoline index was down 10.6% year over year compared with a 17.1% decrease the previous month.

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USDCAD M5: 75 pips price movement by CAD - CPI news event
M5 chart

H4 price is on ranging condition located inside Ichimoku cloud within the key reversal bullish/bearish support/resistance levels:

• Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the ranging trend to be continuing,
• Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging bearish market condition.

Resistance	Support
1.1059	1.0802
N/A	1.0516

If price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the price will be started to be reversed to the bullish market condition.
If the price will break 1.0802 support level so the primary bearish trend will be continuing without the secondary ranging: the price will be located below Ichimoku cloud.
If not so the price will be ranging between the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch W1 price to break 1.0802 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: ranging bearish

Crude Oil price is on bearish breakdown for crossing 36.29 support level from above to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. Chinkou Span line of Ichimokuy indicator is located below the price indicating the secondary breakdown within the primary bearish, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging bearish market condition.

If close H4 price breaks 36.29 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing up to 36.13 as the next bearish target to re-enter.
If close H4 price breaks 37.67 resistance level so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started with the good possibility to the reversal of intra-day price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 37.67 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 36.29 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: bearish

Resistance	Support
37.67	36.29
39.83	36.13

M5 price was on the bullish breakout: the price crossed SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) to above to be bounced from 1.0943 resistance level to start the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.0902 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish area of the chart, and
• 1.0943 resistance level located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish condition to be continuing.

• If the price will break 1.0943 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
• If price will break 1.0902 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
1.0938	1.0910
1.0943	1.0902

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0902 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0943 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish