Analytics News and Market Forecast

EUR/CAD: breakdown to bearish reversal. Daily price for the pair is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction to be started. Chinkou Span line broke the price to below for good breakdown to be started and to be continuing in the near future, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be started. The price broke two key support levels during the breakdown with 1.4940 support level as the target in this case for example.

There are 3 simple scenarios for the price movement for the next 3 weeks:

• the breakdown will be continuing in case the price breaks 1.5331 support level on close daily bar;
• the bearish reversal will be started in case the price breaks 1.4940 support level to below;
• or the ranging within the primary bullish s/r levels will be started.

There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/CAD price movement for the week:

• 2016-01-25 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]
• 2016-01-25 18:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]
• 2016-01-26 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
• 2016-01-27 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
• 2016-01-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Durable Goods Orders]
• 2016-01-29 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Retail Sales]
• 2016-01-29 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]
• 2016-01-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

Resistance	Support
1.5957	1.5331
1.6103	1.4940

M5 price is on bullish ranging near and above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on M5 intra-day chart. The price is located within 1.0859 resistance and 1.0840 support with RSI indicator estomating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing in the near future.

• If the price will break 1.0859 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
• If price will break 1.0840 support to below so the reversal from the primary bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
1.0859	1.0840
N/A	N/A

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0840 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0859 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

Weekly price is on bearish market condition for ranging between Central Pivot at 10807 and S1 Pivot support at 9190: the price was on breakdown with the bearish reversal in the beginning of this year by Central Pivot crossing from above to below so the price was fully reversed to the primary ebarish market condition. If the price breaks S1 Pivot at 9190 so the bearish breakdown will be continuing, otherwise - ranging bearish within the levels.

Instrument	S1 Pivot	Yearly PP	R1 Pivot
GX	9190	10807	12317

If W1 price will break Central Pivot at 10807 so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If W1 price will break S1 Pivot support at 9190 on close W1 bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging between the levels.
Trend:

W1 - ranging bearish

Daily price is located below 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition: the price is ranging within Fibo support level at 1.4079 and 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1.4659. Daily price is breaking 23.6% Fibo resistance at 1.4349 from below to above, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition in the near future.

If the price will break Fibo support level at 1.4079 so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1.4659 from below to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally within the primary bearish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend:

• W1 - ranging bearish

H4 price is on bullish market condition located above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels

• 119.06 resistance located far above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
• 118.06 support located near and above Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be continuing.

Resistance	Support
119.06	118.40
N/A	118.06

If H4 price will break 118.06 support level on close H4 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
If H4 price will break 119.06 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 119.06 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 118.06 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: bullish

SUMMARY : bullish

H4 price is on the primary bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud: the price is ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

• 1.4325 resistance located inside Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on intra-day chart, and
• 1.3947 support located far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition, and Trend Strength indicator is forecasting for the bearish trend to be continuing.

Resistance	Support
1.4325	1.3947
1.4689	N/A

If H4 price will break 1.3947 support level on close H4 bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 1.4325 resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started with the secondary ranging condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.4325 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.3947 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud for the reversal from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition: price was stopped near the upper border of the cloud - Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the daily chart. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging market condition, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the bullish condition to be in near future for example.

If D1 price will break 1058.13 support level on close bar so the price will be reversed from the ranging bearish to the primary bearish with the fully bearish trend following situation.
If D1 price will break 1127.94 resistance level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1127.94 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1058.13 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: correction to bearish reversal

Resistance	Support
1127.94	1058.13
N/A	1046.23

SUMMARY : branging on the border

TREND : waiting for direction

H4 price is on bearish market condition located near and below Ichimoku cloud: the price is moved along Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) waiting for the direction for bearish or bullish trend to be started or continuing.

Resistance	Support
1.0925	1.0809
1.0975	1.0788

If H4 price will break 1.0809 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing withiut secondary ranging condition.
If H4 price will break 1.0925 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish will be started with 1.0975 target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.0925 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.0809 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : waiting for direction

H4 price is on ranging condition located inside Ichimoku cloud and below Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is located within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

• 14.40 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bullish area of the chart, and
• 14.18 support located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

Chinkou Span line crossed the price to below for the bearish trend to be continuing, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging market condition.

Resistance	Support
14.40	14.18
14.55	14.04

If H4 price will break 14.18 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 14.40 resistance level so we may see the reversal to the primary bullish condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 14.40 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 114.18 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

Daily price is on bear market rally, and weekly price is on bearish ranging to be started this week. Some most likely scenarios for the price movement are the following:

• the price will continuing with the bearish trend, or
• price will go to the bullish reversal area to be reversed to the ranging bullish market condition.

D1 price is on primary bearish with the local uptrend as the bear market rally: price is trying to break 1.4648 resistance level to above for the rally to be continuing with 1.4939 target to re-enter for the possible bullish reversal.



If daily price will break 1.4148 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If daily price will break 1.4648 resistance level so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be continuing.
If daily price will break 1.4939 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close daily price to break 1.4648 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch daily price to break 1.4148 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: bearish breakdown

Resistance	Support
1.4648	1.4148
1.4939	1.4078

SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : market rally