Technical Analysis

AUD/USD (Momentum Review for 06/18/2013):


RSI (14):
The RSI (14) is showing a bearish set up on the 1 hour chart, consolidating just above the 40 with no ‘bullish divergences’ between momentum and price present. * The set up on the daily chart is strongly bearish, with RSI sitting below the 40 (and no bullish divergences present)

MA’s of RSI (14): The 9MA of RSI has crossed below the 45MA of RSI (1 hour chart) which is a bearish development. The MA’s of RSI on the daily chart are neutral
Pattern Review for (06/18/2013):

AUD/USD: 1 hour chart will confirm the bear flag pattern with a close below 0.9475. The pattern has a measured move target of 0.9393

Shorter term patterns should always be taken in account with the longer term time frame in mind
Shorter Term Time Frames Pattern Table



Shorter term patterns (Charts)

AUD/USD (1 hour chart): Bear Flag - (Bearish)
>1 hour close below 0.9475 will confirm the bear flag pattern. *The pattern has a measured move target of 0.9393



Longer Term Time Frames Pattern Table



**only closing prices (daily and weekly) are used for confirmation and exit levels.
**the ‘level’ column displays trigger for pattern to be confirmed, although entry price may be different based on where the market closes that particular day.


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NZDUSD has remained in a fairly tight range for the last 24 hours or so, with the pair trapped by support and resistance levels. On the downside, the 200hr SMA is providing the first level of defence, currently around 0.7960, followed closely by the pair’s 50.0% retracement level from its high on the 15th, which is around 0.7945. On the other side of the equation, the 100hr SMA is providing resistance. Overall, the aforementioned levels are keeping the pair fairly close to its 38.2% retracement level from its high on the 15th.

In the short-term, there is a potential bullish crossover in hourly MACD which may see the pair back to its 100hr SMA, currently around 0.8025. This theory is supported by an earlier bullish divergence between price action and RSI.
However, if price action were to break back below the 200hr SMA, we may see a push towards the aforementioned 50% retracement (a break of which would be very bearish in our opinion).




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BETA - Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%; valid till 15:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3425-1.3440 on the upside, 1.3320-1.3335 on the downside.
  
• AUDUSD: 0.9535-0.9550 on the upside, 0.9410-0.9425 on the downside.
  
• USDJPY: 95.85-96.00 on the upside, 94.30-94.45 on the downside.
  
• GBPUSD: 1.5685-1.5700 on the upside, 1.5560-1.5585 on the downside.
  
• USDCAD: 1.0240-1.0255 on the upside, 1.0160-1.0175 on the downside.
  
• NZDUSD: 0.8035-0.8050 on the upside, 0.7930- 0.7945 on the downside.
  
• EURJPY: 128.30-128.45 on the upside, 126.85-127.00 on the downside.
  
• EURGBP: 0.8610-0.8625 on the upside, 0.8435-0.8450 on the downside.
  
• USDCHF: 0.9275-0.9290 on the upside, 0.9140-0.9155 on the downside.
  
• AUDJPY: 90.75-90.90 on the upside, 89.75-89.90 on the downside.
  
• EURAUD: 1.4190-1.4205 on the upside, 1.4025-1.4040 on the downside.
  

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.




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AUD/JPY: Daily

Heads up! AUD/JPY is sitting at a possible 61.8% Fib support, which is also a previousresistance near the 89.00 major psychological handle. Placing a stop just belowthe level could give you a good risk ratio if you aim for previous highs, butyou could also wait for a downside break if you think that the Aussie bearsaren’t done attacking the comdoll.

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EUR/USD (Momentum Review for 06/19/2013):

RSI (14):
The RSI (14) is showing a bearish set up on the 1 hour chart, consolidating just below the 40 with no ‘bullish divergences’ between momentum and price present.
However, the set up on the daily chart remains slightly bullish, with RSI maintain the zone between 40 and 80.

MA’s of RSI (14): The 9MA of RSI has crossed below the 45MA of RSI (1 hour chart) which is a bearish development. *However, the MA’s of RSI on the daily chart are bullish.

Pattern Review for (06/19/2013):

EUR/USD: 1 hour chart will confirm the bear flag pattern with a close below 1.3265. The pattern has a measured move target of 1.3110.

Shorter term patterns should always be taken in account with the longer term time frame in mind

Shorter Term Time Frames Pattern Table



Shorter term patterns (Charts)

EUR/USD (1 hour chart): Bear Flag - (Bearish)
>1 hour close below 1.3265 will confirm the bear flag pattern.

The pattern has a measured move target of 1.3110.



Longer Term Time Frames Pattern Table



**only closing prices (daily and weekly) are used for confirmation and exit levels.
**the ‘level’ column displays trigger for pattern to be confirmed, although entry price may be different based on where the market closes that particular day.


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EUR/USD: 4-hour

Here's my take on everyone's favorite pair, EUR/USD! Just like Cable, the pair has now retraced and is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Keep in mind that this happens to lineup with 1.3200, which was a major support level last week. With Stochastic crossing over out of oversold territory, is it time to start buying?

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EUR/USD (Momentum Review for 06/20/2013):


RSI (14):
The RSI (14) is showing a bearish set up on the 1 hour chart, consolidating just above the 40 with no ‘bullish divergences’ between momentum and price present.
However, the set up on the daily chart remains slightly bullish, with RSI maintaining the zone between 40 and 80.

MA’s of RSI (14): The 9MA of RSI has crossed above the 45MA of RSI (1 hour chart) which is a neutral development. *However, the MA’s of RSI on the daily char remain bullish.

Pattern Review for (06/20/2013):

EUR/USD: 1 hour chart will confirm the rising wedge pattern (bearish) with a close below 1.3220. The pattern has a measured move target of 1.3120.

Shorter term patterns should always be taken in account with the longer term time frame in mind
Shorter Term Time Frames Pattern Table



Shorter term patterns (Charts)

EUR/USD (1 hour chart): Rising Wedge - (Bearish)
>1 hour close below 1.3220 will confirm the rising wedge pattern (bearish). The pattern has a measured move target of 1.3120.


Longer Term Time Frames Pattern Table



**only closing prices (daily and weekly) are used for confirmation and exit levels.
**the ‘level’ column displays trigger for pattern to be confirmed, although entry price may be different based on where the market closes that particular day.


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US treasury yields have soared across the board after the more hawkish FOMC announcement earlier this week, whereby Bernanke openly stated “the Committee currently anticipates that it would be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year…we would continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchase around midyear”.

This saw the 10-year yield break above notable levels of resistance:

• 2.33% – 2010 Low
• 2.384% – 38.2% retracement of 2010-12 decline
• 2.39/42% – October 2011 & 2012 Highs

Additionally, weekly RSI decisively broke above the key 65 level (signaling the end of downtrend). Earlier today the 10-year yield broke above the key psychological 2.50% level, which is a point not seen since August 2011, and potentially opens the door to further upside momentum.

Next potential resistance levels:

• 2.57/58% – 50% retracement of 2011-12 decline & 200-week sma
• 2.75% – Trendline resistance drawn from 2007 high

Interestingly, weekly RSI appears to have broken above corresponding trendline resistance in advance to price, which suggests at minimum a test of the noted 2.75% level, with a potential break above it over the coming weeks.

Source: Bloomberg, FOREX.com


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EURUSD

What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently sitting @ 1.3125 on the .500 Fibo in a corrective A-B-C move down. The move is too steep to declare it a down trend. We are waiting to see if we get a bounce here (or at the .618 Fibo) back to the top @ 1.3424. A move to the top may only be to set a head and shoulders and continue down. Looking for opportunities on rallies to short. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 108 pips.



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USDJPY

What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently @ 97.77 in a wedge which is bullish for the pair. Should we see a break of the wedge and an opportunity to buy. Dips will give a great opportunity on the way to the 100.00 R6 level with the day chart top possible @ 102.00. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 202 pips.



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GBPUSD

What Forex Target Traders See: Cable is currently @ 1.5422 at the day chart up trend. The recent move however indicates a correction down to 1.5256 so look to the short side to the support (.786 Fibo) @ 1.5168 (or prior to that the day chart bottom @ 1.5256) and then bounce or back to the bottom. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 130 pips.



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AUDUSD – A great smooth currency for Newbie’s!

What Forex Target Traders See: Aussie is currently @ 0.9235 after breaking the down S7 support. It is in a sideways move which spells more downside. Expecting a move to the downside to the .500 fibo form the 5/24/10 bottom to the 1/11/10 top @ 0.9125 and then another break to the 0.9000 area. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 158 pips.




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EURUSD broke below 1.3170 support, suggesting that the uptrend from 1.2796 had completed at 1.3415 already, deeper decline could be expected, and the target would be at the lower line of the price channel on daily chart.As long as the channel support holds, the price action from 1.3242 could be treated as consolidation of the longer term uptrend from 1.2747, another rise towards 1.4000 is still possible after consolidation. On the downside, a clear break below the channel support will indicate that rise from 1.2747 is consolidation of the downtrend from 1.3711, then the following downward movement could bring price to 1.2500 zone.




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