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In our last article, we looked at the potential for a new higher-low in EUR/JPY after the European Central Bank extended QE. After this announcement, the Euro was offered-hard across-the-board, but as we noted, the ‘bigger picture’ trend in EUR/JPY has been quite bullish, and traders would likely want to use that short-term weakness to position-in to longer-term bullish strategies. The level that we pointed out around 120.85 had helped ...
On Monday, Poloz was speaking at the House of Commons when he mentioned that they would sit on the uncertain (i.e. bad) data and wouldn’t act for 18-months as they digested how the two-way economy was performing. USD/CAD immediately sold off on this news falling ~120 pips in a few hours. What surprised many was when Poloz came out a few hours later to clarify his comments that the market misunderstood. The Bank of Canada governor said the comment about inaction was about the output gap and not a ...
The CAC 40 is trading modestly higher this morning (+0.31%), as the ECB elected to hold key interest rates flat at an effective 0.00%. Top CAC 40 gainers for Thursday’s trading session include Technip +3.63%, Societe Generale +1.78%, and Sanofi +1.53%. The largest losers include Publicis Groupe -5.45% and ArcelorMittal trading down -1.58% so far on the day. Technically the CAC 40 remains trading above 4,500. However, with today’s price advance, the Index is now trading above the September ...
Daily -Focus remains towards an estimated channel top above 99.00 although I’d be aware of horizontal levels at 98.33/58 as near term roadblocks (NOW). These horizontal levels are defined by the August 2015 and March 2016 highs. There is one interesting tidbit worth mentioning regarding the EUR/USD and DXY relationship. Non-confirmations between these 2 markets (EUR/USD accounts for 57% of DXY) warn of ‘traps’ or false breakouts and non-confirmation ...
In the week since that last article, volatility in GBP/JPY has tamed a bit as a ~200-pip range has developed. This range can be seen as an upward-sloping channel that has a slightly bullish bias; with slightly higher-highs and slightly higher-lows. This is somewhat indicative of a market without significant conviction; and as we discussed last week this is likely resultant from the fact that both currencies are being or have been driven weaker by extremely dovish monetary policy. In the U.K., the ...
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