Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) is correcting after reaching a new all-time high

Gold prices are declining after reaching an all-time high of 2,483 USD per troy ounce.

Gold failed to hold near the all-time high of 2,483 USD reached last week. Buyers appear to have decided to lock in profits, causing XAUUSD quotes to reverse direction and fall below the 2,400 level.

The decline in gold prices is driven by the current strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may provide support for gold.

XAUUSD technical analysis

The XAUUSD H4 chart shows an ongoing downward correction from the historical maximum of 2,483 USD. The quotes are currently hovering around 2,388, which coincides with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous upward movement.

If bears gain a foothold below 2,388, XAUUSD quotes can be expected to fall further to the 2,368 support level, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. At this level, bulls might attempt a counterattack to reverse the trend upward.



Gold is declining in a downward correction after reaching the historical high of 2,483 last week. Bulls may attempt to reverse the price trend upward at 2,368-2,388 support levels.

Read more - XAUUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Brent declined to 80.00, with the market focusing on EIA data today

Brent crude oil prices are declining for the fifth consecutive trading session. Read about it in the analysis for 24 July 2024.

Brent trading key points

• The market awaits EIA data: inventories are expected to have increased by 0.70 million barrels
• Brent forecast for 24 July 2024: 82.80 and 76/80

Fundamental analysis

Brent continues to fall as part of a downward correction, reaching 80.00. Today, market participants await the release of US oil stock data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the American session. Inventories are projected to have risen by 0.70 million barrels. A significant divergence between the actual data and the forecast may drive further movement of Brent quotes.

US oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) was released yesterday. According to the statistics, US hydrocarbon reserves decreased by 3.90 million barrels last week, while the forecast suggested a decline of only 2.47 million. As a result, Brent prices received support and, halting their decline, stabilised around 80.00-81.00.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDCAD rises following Bank of Canada interest rate cut

The USDCAD pair continues to rise following a reduction in Canadian interest rates. Positive US data may cause the Canadian dollar to lose ground further. Find out more in our analysis dated 25 July 2024.

The Canadian dollar is losing ground against the US dollar for the second consecutive week. The Bank of Canada lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to 4.5%. Consequently, the USDCAD rate has risen further, approaching April’s highs.

This week’s forecast of economic indicators is not favourable for the Canadian dollar. Average weekly earnings are expected to decline further, following decreases in the previous two reports. The decline in earnings could be attributed to rising unemployment, a negative economic factor.

Previous data show a decrease in manufacturing sales to 0.4%. Growth is unlikely in the current period, with a decline appearing more probable.

US initial jobless claims are projected to reach 237,000, lower than the previous figure. This suggests a decrease in unemployment, which could positively impact the US dollar and drive the USDCAD rate higher.

USDCAD technical analysis

The forecast for 25 July 2024 shows that the USDCAD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 1.3740. The market has formed a consolidation range around this level. With an upward breakout, the wave could extend to the local target of 1.3825. Once the price reaches this target, a correction is possible, aiming for 1.3740 (testing from above). Subsequently, a new growth wave could start, targeting 1.3892.



The interest rate cut in Canada and technical analysis for today’s USDCAD forecast suggest a potential uptrend towards 1.3825, which could extend to 1.3892.

Read more - USDCAD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD: investors await inflation data

The EURUSD rate is slightly rising after rebounding from the 1.0830 support level. Will the US dollar strengthen? Find out in our analysis dated 26 July 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• US GDP rose by 2.8% year-over-year in Q2
• Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 87 points
• Traders focus on US inflation data
• EURUSD forecast for 26 July 2024: 1.0874, 1.0818, and 1.0777

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 26 July 2024 shows that the US economy continues to grow in Q2 2024, albeit at a slowing pace. According to preliminary data from the US Department of Commerce, GDP increased by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly exceeding analysts’ expectations. However, this is the lowest reading in the past several quarters, indicating US economic slowdown amid tightening monetary policy. Markets continue to price in a 100% chance of a Federal Reserve cut in September, with expectations for at least one more cut by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index continues to decline, reaching 87 points in July, the lowest reading since February 2024. This reflects rising concerns of German businesses about the country’s economic outlook and exerts pressure on the euro rate.

Today, traders focus on the PCE price index report, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Previous data showed that inflation eased in Q2 but remained elevated. The overall PCE index rose by 2.6%, while the core index, which reflects steady inflation trends, increased by 2.9%. This data indicates persisting inflationary pressure in the economy and confirms traders’ expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD continues to rise: risk appetite supports buyers

The EURUSD pair is rising. The week begins quietly, with the US Federal Reserve meeting lying ahead. Find out more in our forecast dated 29 July 2024.

The EURUSD pair climbs to 1.0859 on Monday.

The focus will be on the US Federal Reserve meeting this week. The Fed must maintain all the fundamentals for a September interest rate cut.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (core PCE) price index rose by 0.1% m/m in June after stabilising in May. The indicator increased by 2.5% year-over-year compared to the May reading of 2.6%. All this aligned with expectations. However, a further decline would bolster confidence that the Fed will reduce the rate quickly. The Federal Reserve uses this inflation measure to make its monetary decisions.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop around 1.0850 with no clear trend. A rise to 1.0871 remains relevant today, 29 July 2024. Subsequently, the price could fall to 1.0833 and then rise to 1.0874. A price surge to 1.0886 is also possible. This entire growth structure is viewed as a correction of the previous decline wave. Once it is complete, a new decline wave is expected to start, aiming for 1.0820 and potentially continuing to the local targets of 1.0777 and 1.0760.



Although the EURUSD pair maintained its recovery momentum, it is temporary. The EURUSD forecast for today aligns with technical indicators, suggesting a further corrective wave towards (at least) 1.0874. Once completed, the EURUSD rate is expected to decline to the targets of 1.0818, 1.0777, and 1.0760.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD may decline further

The EURUSD rate corrected on Tuesday following an aggressive decline a day earlier. Why does the market remain cautious? Find out more in the analysis dated 30 July 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• The market awaits the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday for potential interest rate cut signals
• Today, traders will focus on the June job openings and July Consumer Confidence Index
• EURUSD forecast for 30 July 2024: 1.0800 and 1.0775

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure, trading around 1.0815. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, following which the base rate will likely remain unchanged but may provide hints about a rate reduction in September. Traders believe that if no clear signal is given about a rate cut, this may help strengthen the US dollar.

Despite higher-than-expected US GDP growth rates in Q2, the likelihood of monetary policy easing remains high. Although inflation has slowed, it continues to be the regulator’s concern.

Today, investors will focus on June’s job openings data and July’s Consumer Confidence Index. The long-awaited July employment report will be released on Friday, significantly impacting traders’ expectations about the Federal Reserve’s future policy.

Overall, market participants are not inclined to take active action as they await the central bank’s dovish decision. In this situation, the EURUSD rate may decline further.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD declines further following a correction

The AUDUSD pair is falling despite improved trade balance and increased commodity price index. Find out more in our analysis dated 1 August 2024.

The balance of trade reflects the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports. An increase in exports indicates economic development, while import volumes indicate domestic demand. Positive trade balance readings, above both the expected and previous values, are considered a positive factor for the national currency. Australia’s trade balance has increased to 5.589 billion, highlighting economic development and potentially positively impacting the AUDUSD rate.

The commodity price index shows changes in sales of exported goods. Rising prices increase returns on exports and impact the trade balance. Although the current reading is negative, the index has increased from its previous level, which is generally considered positive for the national currency.

The PMI shows the country’s production activity level over the previous period. A reading above 50.0 indicates economic growth, while below 50.0 signals a decline. The index is currently projected to be 0.3 points higher than the previous reading, which may theoretically be considered positive. However, as the index remains below 50.0, it shows negative results. Although today’s AUDUSD forecast based on fundamental analysis appears favourable for the Australian dollar, it does not prevent the currency pair from declining.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The H4 chart shows that the AUDUSD pair maintains its downward momentum towards the local target of 0.6473. The AUDUSD rate is expected to reach this target today, 1 August 2024. Subsequently, a correction could follow, aiming for 0.6610 (testing from below). Once this correction is complete, another decline wave could develop, targeting 0.6430.



Overall, fundamental data aligns with the AUDUSD indicator-based technical analysis, suggesting that the downtrend might continue to the 0.6473 and 0.6430 levels.

Read more - AUDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Brent crude oil is trading around 80.00 USD; focus on US employment market data today

Brent price is consolidating within a limited range near 80.00 as market participants await US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data. Find out more in the Brent analysis for today, 2 August 2024.

Brent trading key points

• US data: the market awaits employment market statistics today
• Brent forecast for 2 August 2024: 82.80 and 78.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes halted their decline as part of a downward correction after reaching a local low of 78.00. This week’s US oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a decrease in oil inventories by 4.49 and 3.43 million barrels, respectively.

Today, market participants are awaiting the release of US July employment statistics, which will reveal nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. Oil prices will likely be influenced by the reaction of the US stock market to employment data: a rise in the stock market will help strengthen Brent’s price, while a decline would push prices lower.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Positive US macroeconomic data drives USDJPY upwards

The USDJPY rate is rising amid increased business activity in the US. Find out more in our analysis dated 6 August 2024.

USDJPY trading key points

• The US services PMI increased to 51.4 points, exceeding previous readings and analysts’ forecasts
• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President emphasised the importance of preventing a decline in the employment market
• The strongly oversold USDJPY pair makes the Japanese yen vulnerable to positive US economic data
• USDJPY forecast for 6 August 2024: 148.20 and 149.20

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen dipped to 145.75 per US dollar, retreating from seven-month highs. This decline is caused by a statement from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and a stronger-than-expected services report.

The US ISM services PMI rose to 51.4 points in July 2024, up from the previous reading of 48.8 and exceeding analysts’ forecasts. The increase is driven by a rise in new orders, which reached 52.4 points in July, up from 47.3 the previous month. This indicator signals increased demand for services and the general strengthening of business activity.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, underscored the critical need to prevent a decline in the employment market. She expressed readiness to lower interest rates if necessary and emphasised the need for a proactive policy.

Traders now expect the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy by 110 basis points this year, with the likelihood of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in September estimated at 75%.

Today’s USDJPY forecast indicates that the strongly oversold pair makes the Japanese yen vulnerable to positive US macroeconomic data, prompting investors to shift their preference towards the US currency.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDCAD declines: the market requires a correction before resuming an uptrend

The USDCAD pair is easing off, with the market adjusting positions. Find out more in our analysis dated 7 August 2024.

The USDCAD rate has fallen for the fourth consecutive trading day, with key movements around the 1.3773 level.

Current movements are part of a corrective phase, though the broader fundamental environment does not favour risk appetite. Investors remain focused on slowing global growth, as reflected in falling oil prices and other commodities.

The Canadian real estate market is also showing warning signs. It is gradually weakening, with increasing indications that consumers are depleting their resources. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in Canada is relatively high, even more so than in the US. However, if the Federal Reserve acts first to reduce borrowing costs, the Bank of Canada is expected to follow suit swiftly.

Fundamentally, the CAD has the potential to weaken. However, this may occur later as investors anticipate emerging threats.

USDCAD technical analysis

Analysis for 7 August 2024 indicates that the USDCAD pair continues its downward momentum towards the initial target of 1.3747. The price is expected to reach this target today, with a correction towards 1.3845. A further decline could develop once the correction is complete, targeting 1.3684 and potentially extending towards 1.3600.



The USDCAD pair is undergoing a correction, but this movement appears to be short-term. Technical indicators in today’s USDCAD forecast suggest a further decline towards 1.3747, followed by a potential correction towards 1.3855.

Read more - USDCAD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team